World class fighters for the second decade; to keep this survey within reasonable limits, it has been decided to restrict its scope to fighters that are already flying in developmental or series form, and that are considered by the editors as likely to provide significant international sales (in financial terms, if not in aircraft numbers) during the 2010s. (Fighter Aircraft Special).

It thus excludes aircraft such as India's HAL LCA, which is not predicted to have a substantial effect on the global market, and others such as the Lockheed Martin F-16, Boeing F-15 and F/A-18, Dassault Mirage 2000 and RSK MiG-29, which in the period specified are more likely to appear as small attrition buys.

It must further be noted that, should the Lockheed Martin F-35 be abandoned in its present form, a new version of the same company's F-16 (probably using the larger wing of the Mitsubishi F-2) could sell in serious numbers. A new generation Russian fighter (yet to fly) could also be exported before 2020, and a combat version of the Eads Mako might damage Gripen sales, as might the KAI A-50. The real wild card is China's Chengdu J-10, a disinterred IAI Lavi, which is being developed in secrecy. China has so far demonstrated no great talent in the design and development of combat aircraft, but that could change.

Gripen

The Gripen International Gripen (so good they named it twice) is the title given to the export derivative of the Saab JAS39 built for the Swedish Air Force (SAF). It has the distinction of being the world's only in-service, fourth-generation, lightweight fighter of modern design, and the leader of the new generation of European canard-delta configuration combat aircraft. The innovative complexity/simplicity of design allows the Gripen to enjoy a very short turn around time. Within less than ten minutes, a ground crew can refuel and re-arm the aircraft for a new mission. The pilot, at the push of a button, can switch the Gripen's mission in mid-flight (a true swing-role aircraft). JAS, incidentally, stands for Jakt (fighter), Attack and Spaning (recce)--in Swedish, of course.

The Gripen is believed to have a basic mass empty (BME) of approximately 7400 kg in typical single-seat form, compared to around 7100 kg for the JAS39. Internal fuel is reportedly 2280 kg. Maximum take-off weight is 14,000 kg, compared to 12,500 kg for the JAS39. The JAS39 and Gripen are both equipped with a single Volvo-built RM12 low-bypass turbofan derived from the General Electric F404, producing approximately 8200 kg static afterburning thrust, and an Ericsson PS-05/A multi-mode pulse-Doppler radar.

The aircraft is built by Saab-BAE Systems Gripen. Gripen International is responsible for the marketing, delivery and long-term support, and is the contractor for the Gripen in the export marketplace.

The development contract for the multi-role JAS39 (including five prototypes and an initial production batch of 30 aircraft) was signed in 1982, and the first prototype flew in late 1988. Unlike the preceding not-for-export Viggen, the JAS39 was intended from the outset to fulfil fighter, attack and reconnaissance roles without internal changes. Subsequent batches of 110 and 64 aircraft for the SAF have brought the production total for the domestic market to 204 JAS39s, including 28 two-seat JAS39Bs. Deliveries began in 1994, and initial operational capability was achieved by the first of four SAF wings (F7) in 1997. The last 20 of the second batch and all of the third batch are to feature an Ericsson D96 mission computer, a GPS receiver, a new ILS, Fadec for the RM12 engine and a CDL 39 communications datalink.

The JAS39 was intended for operation only from Swedish bases, which include dispersed highway sites 800 metres long and nine metres wide. Reliability and maintainability benefit from the fact that the JAS39 was required to make possible a ten-minute turn-round at such sites, each manned by a technical officer and five conscripts.

The JAS39 was cleared initially for the Raytheon AIM-9 Sidewinder (SAF designation Rb74), AIM-120 Amraam (Rb99) and AGM-65 Maverick (Rb75), the Eads/LFK DWS39 (Bk39) submunition dispenser and the Saab Bofors Dynamics RBS15F (Rbl5F) anti-ship missile and 135 mm rocket projectiles. New armaments under consideration include the Eads/Bofors Kepd-150 stand-off air-to-ground missile, the MBDA ramjet-powered Meteor medium-range air-to-air missile and Brimstone anti-armour weapon, and the Boeing Jdam and Raytheon Jsow. The maximum external load for the Gripen is 4800 kg. The JAS39 and Gripen use a single 27 mm Mauser BK27 revolver cannon, as fitted to the Tornado.

Upgrades in prospect for the SAF JAS39 include the Taras next-generation tactical radio system, and a new electronic warfare system with an internally-mounted jammer and increased chaff/flare capacity. The SAF is also considering using the two-seat JAS39B as a command post, to control the air battle--it is currently the platform for first-flight and conversion pilots.

In developing the Gripen for export, Saab has been assisted considerably by BAE Systems, which is an equal partner in Gripen International. The Gripen differs from the basic JAS39 in being modified for compatibility with Nato standard ground support equipment, weapons, IFF and communications. It will also have a retractable in-flight refuelling probe (the first aircraft has recently been fitted), an uprated cabin conditioning system to deal with warmer climes, obogs (on-board oxygen generation system, an improved fatigue life, an NVG-compatible cockpit, a modified electronic warfare system, and an advanced datalink) and the recent addition of three full-colour multi-function displays.

Flight trials of the Gripen have included use of a Thales/Cumulus Guardian helmet-mounted sight and the Zeiss Optronik Litening targeting and navigation flir pod with laser designator. Future options include the Saab Bofors Dynamics IR-Otis infrared search and track system.

Some Gripen features are being added to the third SAF batch to facilitate participation in UN-led overseas deployments. It is anticipated that these will include the improved cockpit with English captions and a voice-warning system, instruments marked in Imperial units, in-flight refuelling provisions, obogs, Nato-compatible IFF with Mode 4 capability and clearance for additional weapon types.

For the longer term (beyond 2010), Gripen International is considering alternative powerplants that would reduce America's ability to prevent sales. One option is the Eurojet EJ200, which would provide significant commonality with the engines in the Typhoon. Other possible changes include conformal fuel tanks (as pioneered by the Rafale and F-16), thrust-vectoring for Stol performance and greater manoeuvrability at low airspeeds, new control modes to improve air-to-air gunnery and a new Ericsson multi-mode active electronically-scanned array (Aesa) radar. This would provide terrain avoidance/following and synthetic aperture radar mapping, in addition to air-to-air modes.

In a trilateral government-to-government deal, the first export contract for the Gripen was signed by South African, British and Swedish representatives in November 1999, covering a first tranche of nine two-seat Gripens and a second of 19 single-seaters. This second tranche could be cancelled if the South African economy were to collapse, but the Rand currently appears to have reversed its downward slide, and South Africa would be loath to lose out on the massive offset deals that are being arranged. The first South African two-seater is due to be handed over in 2006, and the first single-seater in 2009. The final delivery is scheduled for 2012.

The SAAF Gripens, which will replace the current Denel Cheetah C/Ds, will be based on the SAF Lot 3 standard, but will have three new Ericsson Saab Avionics colour 12.7 x 21 cm LCD displays, in-flight refuelling probes, Grintek Avitronics radios, uprated cabin conditioning and new electronic warfare self-protection systems. The locally developed Guardian helmet-mounted sight would appear to be an obvious fit.

The sale of Gripens to South Africa was merged with one for 24 BAE Systems Hawks, giving a total value of approximately $ 2.5 billion, including local taxes. Indicative of the scale of offsets in modern arms sales, under the terms of the contract the two manufacturers are committed to a $7.2 billion National Industrial Participation (NIP) programme and a $1.5 billion Direct Industrial Participation (DIP) programme. The NIP involves "facilitating" that value of South African exports, investments, job creation, technology transfer, education and other development activities. The DIP relates to finding work specifically for the country's aerospace and defence industries. Both programmes will run for eleven years.

Interest has switched to sales within Europe. Late last year Hungary signed an agreement to lease 14 Gripens (including two two-seaters) for ten years, with deliveries to take place between the end of 2004 and mid-2005. The Gripen will replace the MiG-29A/UB. The deal, which is believed to be worth around $ 490 million, includes an option to buy the aircraft at the end of the lease. The SAF is to train the pilots and ground crew. Hungary will be responsible for external armament, the addition of Have Quick radios and ILS and IFF equipment. The aircraft will be supplied with most of the latest SAF JAS39 upgrades, including a new Fadec system and a new APU.

At the end of April 2002, Gripen International submitted a revised proposal for the supply of up to 30 aircraft (including six two-seaters) to the aviation corps of the Austrian Army. As required under the RFP (request for proposals), five new Gripens are offered for delivery in mid-2005 and seven more by the end of that year. The final delivery would take place by mid-2007. This advanced delivery timescale reflects SAF's ability and willingness to release aircraft off the production line, and benefits from the historic cooperation between Sweden and Austria in the defence field. The Gripen team has committed itself to providing Austria with offsets equivalent to 200 per cent of the total purchase price. An important commercial factor favouring the Gripen is that the successful bidder is required to accept as a trade-in Austria's existing Saab Draken fighters and Saab 105 trainers.

In December 2001, the Czech Government announced that the Gripen had been selected to replace the MiG-21, and that 24 aircraft were to be ordered for service from the end of 2005, subject to successful contractual negotiations and parliamentary approval. Offsets equivalent to 150 per cent of the contract value are required. In order to win the contract, BAE Systems agreed to take a stake in Aero Vodochody, and to find a buyer for half of the 72 L-159s ordered by the Czech Government, and now designated surplus to requirements. Local press reports indicate that the Czech Government plans to take out a $ 2.1 billion loan to buy the Gripens and to repay it over 15 years.

Other prospects for Gripen sales in Europe include the Netherlands and Poland, the latter requiring an initial 12 to 24, up to a possible 60 aircraft in the future. Further afield, Gripen International refers to possible markets in Brazil, where it is fighting the Mirage 2000, SU-35, MiG-29 and F-16, Malaysia, Norway, Romania, Denmark, Switzerland and Singapore, inter alia.

Rafale

The Dassault-built Rafale is chronologically the second of the new generation of European canard-delta combat aircraft, having recently entered service with the French Navy. Powered by two engines in roughly the same thrust bracket as that of the Gripen, it is a comparatively heavy fighter, although it was intended to be somewhat lighter and less expensive than its closest rival, the Eurofighter EF2000 series (discussed later).

The responsibility of Rafale International, a joint venture by Dassault Aviation, Snecma and Thales, France's latest national combat aircraft programme arose out of the failure in the early 1980s to create a five-nation European fighter consortium. Aside from differences over design leadership, France had a much more relaxed development timescale than the other nations, the newly developed Mirage 2000 being available to fill the gap before a brand-new fighter generation was required. While the other four nations went ahead and formed Eurofighter, France announced its intention to build the ACX technology demonstrator. This eventuated as the Rafale A. which began flight trials with General Electric F404 engines in 1986. However, the French Defence Ministry decided that, although the configuration of the Rafale A promised to give the performance desired, a somewhat smaller aircraft was required, to make it more affordable and more suitable for carrier operations. The Rafale A was similar to the resulting production aircraft, but had two dorsal airbrakes, which were eliminated in all subsequent Rafales.

Whereas the Rafale A had a basic weight of approximately 9500 kg, the smaller production Rafale was originally intended to weigh around 8500 kg, making it distinctly lighter than the 9750 kg target figure of the EF2000, and thus requiring less thrust. The Snecma M88-2 was accordingly designed for a static afterburning thrust of approximately 7650 kg. As the basic weight of the redesigned aircraft rose in the course of design development to around 10,000 kg, the Rafale began to appear underpowered in comparison with the EF2000. Export proposals for the Rafale are therefore based on the 20 per cent more powerful M88-3, which is mainly privately funded, although French-operated Rafales may well be brought to this standard at a later date. The M88-3 is due for certification for export Rafales by the end of 2005. and may increase maximum speed to Mach 2.0.

As delivered to the French services. the Rafale has a maximum speed of Mach 1.8. Its theoretical service ceiling is 55,000 ft, but a peacetime limit of 50,000 ft is used to reduce embrittlement of the canopy.

The Rafale configuration differs from that of the EF2000 in several respects, notably the location of the air intakes and canards. Whereas the intakes of the EF2000 are set below the fuselage, presumably minimising sensitivity to angle of attack at some penalty in lateral radar signature, the Rafale has `semi-ventral' inlets located below `cheeks' that bulge out laterally from the front fuselage and carry the fore-planes. This approach could involve a marginal performance penalty (although the change in duct cross-section along its length is reduced), but it certainly produces a much better looking aircraft.

Compared to that of the EF2000, the Rafale canard is located much closer to the wing, probably to optimise vortex interaction and thus improve airfield performance (as required by deck landing considerations) and manoeuvrability. On the other hand, the forward location of the EF2000 canard is superior in terms of achieving recovery from extremely high angles of attack.

The Snecma M88-2 is a low-bypass turbofan, giving a relatively flat dry-thrust curve and thus allowing the Rafale to exceed Mach 1 without afterburner. All M88-2s are built to the corrosion-resistance standard specified by the French Navy. The engine was formally certificated in March 1996.

The Rafale's principal sensor is the passive phased-array Thales RBE2 (radar a balayage electronique 2), which can track eight aircraft targets simultaneously, while continuing to search. It has a detection range in excess of 100 km, even in a look-down mode. Other operating modes include terrain following and avoidance. The Rafale's Spectra (Systeme de Protection et d'Evitement des Conduits de Tir de Rafale) electronic warfare system is a joint development by Thales and MBDA. It provides all-weather long-range detection, identification and location of threats, and a fast reaction capability with the most appropriate defensive measures, including jamming, decoys and evasive manoeuvres. Spectra has a threat library that can be updated by operators. Other avionic equipment includes the Thales Damocles imaging infrared and laser-designation pod.

The Thales group is also responsible for the Rafale's large full-colour multifunction, the 30[degrees] x 22[degrees] holographic and the 20[degrees] x 20[degrees] head-level displays. Other cockpit features include a digital voice input system and flight controls in both cockpits. As in the case of the Mirage 2000D, French Air Force and Navy system operators will not be trained to fly the aircraft, but they will have some instruction on the Rafale simulator and some opportunities to handle the aircraft in flight at safe levels. The hope is that the second crew member will be able to recover the aircraft, should the pilot be disabled by enemy action.

All versions of the Rafale except the proposed naval two-seater are equipped with a single internally-mounted Giat Defa 791 30 mm revolver cannon, which has a cyclic rate of 1500 rd/min for ground strafing and docile aircraft targets, and a remarkable 2500 rd/min for transient firing opportunities. This allows 21 rounds to be fired in a half-second burst. Stores totalling more than nine tonnes can be carried on 14 stations (13 in the case of naval aircraft), five of which are plumbed for fuel tanks. The 4500 kg of internal fuel may be augmented by up to 7500 kg in pylon-mounted tanks. Maximum take-off weight is 24,500 kg.

The Rafale has been designed in four domestic versions: the single-seat C and two-seat B for the French Air Force, and the corresponding M and N variants for the French Navy. The carrier version weighs 500 to 600 kg more than the corresponding airfield-based aircraft. Dassault emphasises that, whereas the EF2000 concept emphasised air superiority, the Rafale was designed from the outset as a multi-role aircraft. In French service, it was required to replace the Navy's Crusader and Super Etendard, and the Air Force's Jaguar and Mirage F1, 2000C, 2000N and IV.

Four prototypes were built: one Rafale C, one B and two Ms. The first of these had its maiden flight in 1991. Over the course of the 1993 through 1996 timeframe, a total of three Rafale Bs and ten Ms were ordered, the French Navy having priority because the retirement of the Crusader had left the service with no carrier-capable air defence aircraft. The first production aircraft (a Rafale B) flew in late 1998, and the first delivery to the service (a Rafale M) took place late in 1999. Two more were handed over in 2000, and ten in 2001. It is anticipated that a further 13 will have been delivered by the end of 2002.

The first Navy squadron (Flotille 12F) was formed in May 2001. The nuclear-powered carrier Charles de Gaulle (which can accommodate 20 Rafales in the hangar and twelve on deck) sailed for the Gulf of Oman in December 2001 with two Rafales, the complement having built up to seven at time of writing. All are being converted from LF1 to full F1 standard. When two more have been delivered in the course of this summer, 12F will be declared operational. The last of the 13 aircraft in the first production batch is due for delivery in October 2003.

In the context of France's 1997 to 2002 defence plan, orders were placed for a further 28 Rafales (apparently seven Cs, 14 Bs and seven Ms) for delivery between February 2004 and February 2007. In late 2001, a further contract was signed for an additional 20 aircraft, consisting of five Cs, seven Bs and eight Ms, giving a total of 61 production Rafales. The original plan was for the Air Force to have 95 single-seaters and 139 two-seaters, and the Navy to have 60 single-seaters. However, following operations in bad weather at low level over Kosovo, the French Navy decided in principle to take up to 40 Rafales (out of the planned 60) as two-seaters. The contract for the Rafale N is expected to be signed around the end of 2002, leading to the first delivery in 2006. The French Navy is scheduled to receive its 60th Rafale by 2012. The Rafale is expected to remain in French service until at least 2040.

One of the problems in winning export orders for the Rafale is that it will be some years before France places in service a multi-role version. The initial build standard for the French Navy was the Rafale LF1, with a very limited air defence capability, being cleared (reportedly) for only two MBDA Magic II short-range air-to-air missiles, and not even the cannon. The improved F1 apparently represents the full naval air defence standard of the first batch of 13 aircraft, which added the cannon, RBE2 radar and Spectra, and provisions for external fuel tanks and four radar-guided MBDA Mica EM medium-range air-to-air missiles.

The Rafale F2 standard ordered in early 2001 represents an initial multi-role version, with Link 16, the Thales OSF forward-looking optronic system and provisions for the MBDA Apache and Scalp EG cruise missiles, the MBDA Mica IR medium-range air-to-air missile and the Sagem AASM air-to-ground missile. Deliveries to this standard will begin in 2005, and the French Air Force will have the type operational by 2006. The Thales OSF is the first optronic system in the West to operate on both the three to five-micron and eight to twelve-micron wavebands, giving better performance in humid conditions. Although performance details are classified, the EO system is reportedly capable of identifying an Su-27-size target at 55 km. The flir system can identify it at night at around 7.5 km. At a height of 20,000 ft, the flir can detect aircraft targets at about 130 km. The laser ranger operates out to 22 km.

The development of the F3 standard will begin in 2003, adding anti-shipping strike capability with Exocet and its supersonic replacement, nuclear strike capability with ASMP-A and a Thales helmet-mounted display and reconnaissance pod. This standard is expected to enter service by 2007 and be operational by 2008. The F4 version (as reportedly proposed to the Netherlands) will have an active array development of the RBE2 radar.

Dassault has recently begun referring to a Rafale Mk 2, which is being developed for the export market at a cost to Rafale International of around $ 730 million. The F2 will combine the Thales active electronically-scanned array (Aesa) radar, the uprated M88-3 engines, clearance for a wider range of weapons and two conformal tanks, which will each house an additional 1150 litres of fuel. Although such tanks add weight at the wing roots (where it has the worst possible effect on wing bending moments), Dassault states that the flight envelope is fully maintained. Conformal tanks are expected to be popular with those airforces that have no tankers. The Rafale Mk 2 is scheduled to fly in late 2003 and to be available for production deliveries from early 2006.

At time of writing, there have been no export orders for the Rafale, partly due (as indicated earlier) to the lesser priority given to the French Air Force multi-role version. Various unit flyaway prices have been reported, including a 1996 figure of $ 66.8 million, which appears realistic. The Rafale was offered to Greece (according to a Dassault spokesman) for 10 per cent less than the Eurofighter. The latter was nonetheless selected in 2000, although, due to budgetary problems, a contract has yet to be signed.

In April, Rafale International took the unusual step of publishing a protest against the South Korean Government's decision to buy the Boeing F-15 to satisfy its FX requirement, despite what the French manufacturer characterised as the Rafale's "multiple advantages, such as lower prices, and better technical/ operational capabilities ...". While recognising that the decision was a matter of national sovereignty, Rafale International reserved the right to take legal action over the fairness and transparency of the competition, in order to defend the global image of the Rafale. The company sees market prospects in Australia, India, Saudi Arabia and Singapore.

Typhoon

The Eurofighter Jagdflugzeug EF2000 was designed to satisfy the combat aircraft requirements of the air forces of Britain, Germany, Italy and Spain, and it is hoped that the export version (dubbed Typhoon for sales outside Europe) will satisfy the needs of many international customers. The EF2000 is optimised for the beyond-visual-range (BVR) and close air combat roles, while retaining a very significant air-to-ground capability.

Eurofighter, owned by Eads (46 per cent), BAE Systems (33) and Alenia Aerospazio (21), manages the development and production of the airframe and the complete weapon system, while Eurojet Turbo, owned by MTU-Munchen, Rolls-Royce, Fiat Aviazione and ITP, is responsible for the EJ200 engines. The corresponding radar group is Euroradar, the members of which include Eads Defence Electronics, BAE Systems, Fiar and Enosa, which jointly produce the Captor radar (formerly ECR90). The infrared search and track device is designated Pirate (Passive Infra-Red Airborne Tracking Equipment), which is the responsibility of the Fiar-led Eurofirst group, including Thales Optronic and Tecnobit. The training systems are to include 18 full-mission simulators, which are being developed and produced by Eurofighter Simulation Systems, a joint venture by STN Atlas, Thales Training and Simulation, Italy's Meteor and Spain's Indra Systems. The four domestic customers oversee the procurement of the system through Netma (Nato Eurofighter & Tornado Management Agency).

As a result of being designed to meet the most demanding aspects of the four nations' requirements, the EF2000 is somewhat heavier than the Rafale. Basic mass empty is approximately 11,000 kg, and the aircraft is powered by two EJ200 engines, each producing a static afterburning thrust of around 9175 kg. The EF2000 is currently equipped with a single 27 mm Mauser BK27 revolver cannon (although this will probably be deleted as a cost-saving measure on later British EF2000s), and external stores can be mounted on 13 stations, up to three of which have the option of being plumbed for fuel tanks. Maximum take-off weight is 23,000 kg. Maximum speed is Mach 2.0.

The EF2000 trials programme began with seven development aircraft, the first of which had its maiden flight in 1994. These aircraft included two two-seaters, the British-assembled DA4 and the Spanish-assembled DA6. The Captor radar was tested initially on a BAC One-Eleven, before being installed in DA4 and DA5. Four of these aircraft are now being upgraded to production standard and there have been suggestions that one may be used as a trials installation aircraft for future developments under a technology demonstration programme (TDP).

In early 1998, Netma and Eurofighter signed a maximum-price `umbrella' contract covering 620 production EF2000s, including 100 two-seaters and an option on a further 90. The EF2000s are planned to be purchased in consecutive tranches of 148 (including 52 two-seaters), 236 (25 two-seaters) and 236 (23 two-seaters). The corresponding engine numbers are 363,519 and 500. Of the total of 620 aircraft, Britain requires 232 (including 37 two-seaters), Germany 180 (33 two-seaters), Italy 121 (15 two-seaters) and Spain 87 (15 two-seaters). The corresponding work-shares are 37, 30, 19 and 14 per cent. The contractual options consist of 65 aircraft for Britain, 16 for Spain and 9 for Italy.

In 1988, an agreement valued at approximately DM 15 billion was signed for tranche one of 148 aircraft (55 for Britain, 44 for Germany, 29 for Italy and 20 for Spain), their engines, initial spares and long-lead items for the second batch of 236 aircraft. Further contracts relating to the first tranche cover additional spares, ground support equipment, training aids and the first five years of product support operations. Work on the first tranche began in May 1998, leading to deliveries that will stretch from 2002 to 2005. tranche two will be delivered between 2005 and 2010 and tranche three between 2010 and 2015. If ordered, the 90 optional aircraft will be delivered between 2015 and 2018.

Five of the early production aircraft are being instrumented to assist in flight development work, and are referred to as IPAs. The first to fly was IPA2, which had its maiden flight from Turin-Caselle on 5 April 2002.

Aircraft are now coming off the production lines at Manching in Germany, Warton in Britain, Caselle in Italy and Getafe in Spain. The first service units will be the Eurofighter Operational Evaluation Unit (EOEU) at Warton, Germany's JG73 and the Italian Air Force's 4[degrees] Stormo. Britain's EOEU will later transfer to RAF Coningsby, where it will later become No17(R) Sqn, alongside the Operational Conversion Unit, bearing the reserve designation No29(R) Sqn. Two front-line squadrons will later be formed at RAF Coningsby, and there will be others at RAF Leeming and RAF Leuchars. The Royal Air Force expects to achieve initial operational capability (IOC) with the EF2000 in January 2006. Germany's JF73 and Laage will be joined by JG74 at Neuberg, JG71 at Wittmundhaven and JG72 at Hopsten. Italy's 4[degrees] Stormo at Grosseto will be joined by 37[degrees] Stormo at Trapani, and 53[degrees] Stormo at Cameri. Deliveries to the Spanish Air Force will begin in 2003, but details of EF2000 deployment have not been published.

Being designed to fulfil the requirements of four air forces means that armament trials will take longer than in a national programme. On the other hand, it means that the Typhoon can be offered internationally with an unusually wide range of weapons. For example, air-to-ground missiles to be cleared for tranche two include the new MBDA Brimstone anti-armour missile with millimetre-wave radar guidance, and both the MBDA Storm Shadow and the Taurus KEPD 350 cruise missiles (assuming that Germany proceeds with the latter programme). In the anti-ship category, the Kongsberg Penguin and the Boeing Harpoon will both be cleared.

Turning to medium-range air-to-air missiles, the EF2000 will enter service with the Raytheon AIM-120 Amraam, but the second tranche will introduce the AIM-120C-5 with a high off-boresight capability and (from around 2008) the ramjet-powered MBDA Meteor. In the short-range air-to-air category, it will initially use the Raytheon AIM-9L and MBDA Asraam, but tranche two will be cleared for the BGT Iris-T. Both the Asraam and Iris-T will provide an over-the-shoulder engagement capability (using a helmet-mounted sight to designate rear-hemisphere targets) and a massive expansion in the no-escape zone, relative to the AIM-9L. Deliveries of the Asraam have already begun, and it is anticipated that low-rate initial production (Lrip) of the Iris-T (which has thrust-vectoring to give an even quicker change of initial heading) will begin in 2003. Research and development firings of the Iris-T began in 1995, and a series of ten validation tests is currently in progress. This is to be followed by seven performance demonstration firings (operational evaluation trials) scheduled for completion around the end of 2002 and are expected to lead to Lrip contract signature soon afterwards.

Tranche three is expected to include a series of major improvements, such as 2000-litre drop tanks (containing 33 per cent more than the current tanks), a pair of 1500-litre conformal tanks and an electronically-scanned radar that is being developed under Europe's Airborne Multi-role solid-STate active Array Radar (Amstar) programme. Some private-venture development work has already been carried out by ITP and MTU-Munchen on a thrust-vectoring system, and it is possible that this concept may be introduced with tranche three. Eurojet has indicated that the E J200 provides scope for around 15 per cent more dry thrust and 5.0 per cent more afterburning thrust.

In early 1999, the Greek Government announced the selection of the EF2000 to fulfil its fighter requirement, and the intention to buy 60 with an option on a further 30 aircraft. However, contract signature has been deferred on several occasions due to other funding priorities, and it is possible that the contest will be reopened. Eurofighter also had serious hopes in Norway and the Netherlands, but in recent months, America's Joint Strike Fighter programme (discussed below) has been gaining ground. The latter could sweep the field in Europe, provided there are no major delays in developing the aircraft, and that it really can (as rumoured) be sold for not much more than half the price of a Typhoon. The obvious exception to the present trend is Austria, which seems likely to firm up on the Gripen, if only because of the nation's special links with Sweden.

Joint Strike Fighter

In October 2001, at the end of the Concept Demonstration Phase (CDP) of the Joint Strike Fighter programme, Lockheed Martin was selected to develop its X-35 (which first flew in October 2000) into the multi-service F-35. In this new $ 25+ billion, 126-month Systems Design and Development (SDD) phase, that company, leading a team that includes Northrop Grumman and BAE Systems, is to construct 14 flight articles (five Ctol, five Stovl and four CV [carrier-capable] aircraft) and seven ground test airframes. The first Ctol F-35A is scheduled to fly in October 2005, followed by the first Stovl F-35B in March 2006 and the first CV F-35C in January 2007. It is anticipated that LRIP of five lots, totalling 465 aircraft, will be approved in 2006. The first operational F-35s are due to be handed over to the US Marine Corps and Air Force in 2008, leading to IOC with those services in 2010 and 2011 respectively. The US Navy and British services are expected to start receiving their F-35s in 2010, leading to IOC in 2012.

The May 1997 Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR) reduced the domestic total to 2852 aircraft, based on 1763 for the US Air Force to replace the F-16 and A-10, 609 for the US Marine Corps to replace the AV-8B and F/A-18C/D, and 480 for the US Navy to replace the F-14D and F/A-18C/D. In March 2002, the Pentagon was reported to be reviewing a proposal to cut later F-35 production by 400 aircraft, split roughly equally between the Stovl and CV versions. The Lockheed Martin website refers to 2000 for the US Air Force, over 600 for the US Marine Corps and around 300 for the US Navy. However, it will probably be many years before the domestic total is finally decided. Despite the current talk of cutbacks, consideration is being given to developing a two-seat version for electronic warfare duties and the suppression of enemy air defences (Sead).

Linked to this three-service domestic launch order, the UK plans to acquire 150 F-35s to replace the Harrier GR7 and Sea Harrier FA2. The decision on whether these F-35s should be the Stovl or CV version, which is of crucial importance in designing Britain's new carriers, has yet to be taken.

The Lockheed Martin F-35 is a single-seat, multi-role strike fighter, powered by a single Pratt & Whitney F135 (formerly JSF119) afterburning turbofan, derived from the F119 used in the same airframe manufacturer's twin-engined F-22. The F135 is probably in the 17,000 kg thrust category. General Electric, teamed with Rolls-Royce/Allison, is developing the F136 under the Alternate Engine Program. The F-35 has a cropped diamond planform, lateral intakes and twin vertical tails. It has two internal weapon bays in the fuselage sides, each capable of housing a 450 kg Jdam and an AIM-120C air-to-air missile. The US Air Force version will have an internally-mounted 27 mm Mauser BK27 cannon (produced by Alliant Techsystems, which has recently taken over Boeing's ordnance business), whereas the US Navy and US Marine Corps versions will carry pod-mounted guns when required. The F-35 is to be equipped with a Northrop Grumman electronically-scanned array multi-function radar.

In the case of the F-35B Stovl version, the exhaust gas can be diverted downward by means of a three-bearing swivel nozzle, and the low-pressure turbine will be able to power a vertically-mounted lift-fan via a clutch and drive-shaft. The lift-fan is produced by Allison, and the drive shaft and clutch by Lucas Aerospace. The empty weight of the production F-35 is probably in the 13,000 to 15,000 kg category, depending on the variant.

JSF International Sales

The original objective of the JSF programme was to procure large numbers for three domestic services with a very high degree of commonality, thus achieving a unit flyaway price of only $ 30 to 40 million in FY94 values, depending on the variant. This programme has thus from the outset promised (or threatened, depending on viewpoint) to wipe out any competition. Estimates published in 2001 by the Pentagon's Defense Acquisition Board put the F-35 flyaway price at $ 40 to 50 million, but this range is still comparatively low.

If successful, the F-35 could well do to exports of the Rafale and Typhoon what the F-16 did to the Mirage 2000. However, there are several differences between the two cases. Firstly, the F-16 timescale ran at least two years ahead of the Mirage 2000, whereas the F-35 is running over five years behind the Rafale and Typhoon. Moreover, full-rate production of the F-35 may be delayed by the funding demands of the US Air Force F-22 and US Navy's F/A-18E/F.

In addition, the F-16 was a relatively straightforward aircraft that never suffered serious development delays. Being developed in three basic versions, the F-35 is clearly at greater technical risk, especially as one of these requires Stovl (Short Take-Off Vertical Landing) capability, combined with the high degree of mechanical reliability. Comparison with the F-16 is also invalidated by the fact that the latter provided a clear performance advantage over any likely adversary. It remains to be seen whether Russia will develop a new combat aircraft that does not have the performance penalties associated with designing for a Stovl variant.

Despite these reservations, the F-35 is currently the West's best bet as a relatively low-cost multi-role fighter with a useful degree of stealth. Allied nations are being encouraged to participate financially in the SDD phase, in the hope of acquiring aircraft without paying the full R&D levy, and of their industries being allowed to take part in what promises to be a massive programme, with international sales set to increase the production total to between 4000 and 5000 units. Over its full life, the F-35 programme is estimated to be worth around $ 400 billion.

In the CDP, Britain contributed 10 per cent or approximately $ 200 million, making it a `full collaborative partner'. Denmark, the Netherlands and Norway signed on as `associate partners', contributing 2.0 per cent each, and Canada and Italy joined in as `informed partners' for a nominal $10 million. Israel, Singapore and Turkey are believed to have paid smaller amounts for access to specific studies.

In January 2001, the British Minister for Defence Procurement signed an MoU (memorandum of understanding) committing Britain to funding eight per cent of the SDD phase, which was described as having a target cost of $ 25.7 billion and a ceiling of $ 28.3 billion. Britain is the only Level One partner. Level Two partners, Italy and the Netherlands, contribute between $ 0.8 and 1.0 billion. Level Three partners contribute around $150 million. Canada and Denmark have joined at this level, and Norway and Turkey are to follow suit, Norway making a joint entry with Denmark. Australia and Singapore have expressed interest in joining the programme.

The Su-27/30 Family

The Sukhoi AVPK/Design Bureau Su-27 is roughly equivalent to the Boeing F-15, but is slightly larger and heavier. Basically a long-range air defence fighter with a very limited ground attack capability, it is said to have been inspired by the McDonnell F-4, which the F-15 was designed to replace. Preliminary design studies began in 1969 and the first prototype flew in 1977. An extensively redesigned prototype flew in 1981, series production began in 1983, and the Su-27S became operational in 1985. It is believed that around 800 (including 100 two-seat Su-27UBs) were built for Soviet use, before procurement funds ran out in the early 1990s. About half that number are still in service with the Russian Air Force.

The export Su-27SK has an empty weight of 16,380 kg. It is equipped with a Tikhomirov N-001 radar and is powered by two Saturn/Lyulka AL-31F turbofans, each with an afterburning thrust of 12,500 kg. The standard internal fuel capacity is 6000 kg, giving a normal take-off weight of 23,140 kg, but the aircraft's maximum internal fuel capacity (using the wing tanks) is 9400 kg. The maximum military load is 8000 kg, leading to a maximum take-off weight of 33,000 kg. The standard aircraft has no provision for external tanks. Maximum speed is Mach 2.35.

The unusual features of the Su-27 include a tunnel between the engine pods, which is claimed to provide a low-drag installation for two Vympel R-27 missiles in tandem, and titanium intake grilles to minimise foreign object damage during take-off and landing.

The basic export model is the Su-27SK, which is complemented by the two-seat Su-27UBK--the series having been sold to China, Ethiopia, Syria and Vietnam. It is believed that China has ordered at least 80 and is licensed to build 200 more (importing the radars and engines). Vietnam has purchased 24, Syria 14 and Ethiopia has received 10 that were previously operated by the Russian Air Force.

The tandem-seat Su-30 was developed initially as an interceptor, and it is believed that the Russian Air Force operates a small number as fighter-controllers. The Su-30K was the first export variant, leading to the multi-role Su-30KM, which has a maximum take-off weight of 38,800 kg. Some 50 Su-30MKIs have been ordered by India (and are being upgraded to the specified standard with canards and thrust-vectoring), and a further 140 are being assembled locally. China has ordered 80 Su-30MKKs. The Su-30MKM has been proposed for Malaysia and the Su-30MKT for Thailand.

For Russia, the most important line of development is probably the Su-32 strike fighter series with side-by-side seating and an armoured cockpit, a series that is to replace the Su-24. It was originally planned that Su-27 production would switch to the canard-equipped Su-27M or Su-35, with uprated AL-35 engines and a new radar. However, it currently appears that this intermediate step may be omitted by the Russian Air Force and that (after upgrading its Su-27 and Su-30) the service will move directly to a completely new design with some degree of stealth. The Su-35 and two-seat Su-35UB with thrust-vectoring are nonetheless being promoted in markets such as Australia and Brazil.

If it reaches the production stage, the Su-35 will be manufactured by KnAAPO, which is currently responsible for all single-seat variants of the Su-27, including the carrier-capable Su-33.

Raptor

The Lockheed Martin F-22 Raptor may not make a serious impact on the international market, but it will almost certainly be the world's most advanced fighter for decades to come. Combining stealth with supercruise capability, thrust-vectoring and sensor fusion, the F-22 will replace the Boeing F-15 in US Air Force service, and is claimed to leapfrog Russia's Su-35 fighter generation. Teamed with Boeing, Lockheed Martin designed the YF-22 technology demonstrator and built two prototypes, which flew in 1990. In 1991, the YF-22 was selected as the basis for the US Air Force `s new Advanced Technology Fighter, and Lockheed Martin was awarded the EMD (engineering and manufacturing development) contract, which included the production of nine aircraft. The first of these flew in 1997, and the last was handed over to the USAF in May 2002.

Plans for the F-22 have been changed on several occasions, cutting back the US Air Force's original target of 750 aircraft to perhaps as few as 295, although Lockheed Martin hopes to build at least 339 for domestic use (and the US Air Force still aims for 380 to form ten squadrons). The 339 target consists of eight production-representative test vehicles (PRTVs) and 331 production aircraft. In late 2000, Lrip was launched with an FY2001 contract for Lot 1 of ten aircraft, with deliveries for operational testing to start in April 2003. On current plans, this will be followed by Lot 2 of 13 aircraft in FY2002, Lot 3 of 21 in FY2003, Lot 4 of 25 in FY2004 and Lot 5 of 33 in FY2005, which will represent peak production rate. Initial operational capability is scheduled for December 2005. The last delivery to the US Air Force is currently scheduled for 2013, but there is pressure for the F-22 also to be used to replace the F-15E and F-117, which would presumably see production extended. Lockheed Martin is aiming to achieve a unit production cost of $ 83.6 million in FY2000 values.

Despite the advancements in performance, the F-22 employs a relatively conventional configuration. One of its interesting features is the use of three internal weapon bays, the central bay being sized for four AIM-120A or six cropped-aerofoil AIM-120C Amraams, or (from Block 4 onwards) two of the latter with two 450 kg GBU-30 Jdams. From Block 5 the bay will accommodate eight to twelve SDBs (small diameter bombs). Each lateral bay accommodates two AIM-9X. The wing has provisions for four pylons, each capable of carrying a fuel tank and two AIM-120As, which are presumably more manoeuvrable than the AIM-120C.

The F-22 is equipped with a Northrop Grumman APG-77 active array radar, and is powered by two Pratt & Whitney F119-PW-100 engines in the 16,000 kg class. The Link Simulation and Training Division of L-3 Communications is responsible for the full-mission simulator with 360-degree SimuSphere visual system and other training aids in a programme which is expected to be worth around $ 200 million.

Possible future developments for the F-22 include a fuselage stretch to increase the capacity of the weapon bays, and a delta-wing "FB-22" derivative to provide a major increase in range and warload.