With one withdrawn, other tax measures gauge support.

It appears that tax measures heading towards the November ballot are in trouble. Last week, an initiative that would increase commercial property taxes to generate $4 billion per year for education was abruptly pulled from the ballot. In addition, a major supporter of an initiative to raise money for hospital emergency rooms withdrew its support, citing insufficient support in internal polling.

The California Healthcare Association, which represents hospitals, announced last week that it was withdrawing its participation in the so-called emergency care initiative, which would increase the existing 9-1-1 surcharge by 3 percent on most phone bills. The tax increase would generate roughly $550 million a year for emergency room and related medical services.

Proponents said they intend to push ahead, despite the loss of a major sponsor. They are expected to file more than 900,000 signatures with the Secretary of State's office on April 12, almost guaranteeing qualification for the November ballot.

CHA officials didn't give exact polling results for the telephone tax or the aforementioned commercial property tax increase measure pulled from the ballot last week. The CHA also polled other tax measures, including one that would hike taxes on Californians pulling in more than $1 million in annual income to raise funds for mental health services.

While the poll showed majority sup port for these initiatives, the early stages of any tax initiative need to exceed two-thirds in order to withstand a barrage of campaign attacks and to remain above 50 percent by Election Day.

"On our initiative, in order to run a successful campaign, it would have required that we put in a lot more resources than we felt we could commit," said CHA spokeswoman Jan Emerson.

Emerson said the other measures would likely need strong financial support in order to win passage in November. "There may be organizations supporting those measures who are willing to put in those resources; we just weren't."

The California Teachers Association and actor-director Rob Reiner had spent over $1 million in their effort to qualify the commercial property tax hike for the ballot, and had collected more than enough signatures. But with just days to go before the signature submission deadline, the CTA and Reiner said the November ballot was likely to contain too many other tax measures and would require spending even more money to rise above the clutter.

Business Tax Proposal

The latest proposal to reform the city of L.A.'s much-maligned business tax appears to be gaining steam.

The proposal, put forward by the Business Advisory Tax Committee, would cut the gross receipts tax by 15 percent over the next five years. It would also reduce the number of tax categories from the current 64 to just five and set up an option for small and medium-sized businesses--roughly half the tax base--to pay a flat annual fee of $145.

Since the proposal was introduced last month, it has garnered support from two key councilmembers: Wendy Greuel, vice chair of the council's ad-hoc committee on business tax reform, and Eric Garcetti, who chairs the economic development committee.

Greuel and Garcetti are expected to introduce a reform plan on April 13, largely based on the advisory committee proposal. The Greuel-Garcetti plan has two differences: it would look at the possibility of reducing rates up to 5 percent per year for five years and target additional tax cuts for key growth industries.

Three local business groups have voiced their support: the Los Angeles Area Chamber of Commerce, the Valley Industry and Commerce Association and the Hollywood Chamber of Commerce. The VICA endorsement is regarded as crucial, since two years ago it launched a campaign to "ax the (gross receipts) tax."

Efforts to reform the city's business tax go back a decade, to the era of former Mayor Richard Riordan. With the city facing a budget deficit of at least $250 million, though, L.A. Mayor James Hahn has cautioned reform advocates against expecting significant action this year.

Mayor's Race Taking Shape

With announcements from state Sen. Richard Alarcon and City Councilman Bernard Parks that they are considering runs for L.A. mayor, the race is on to try to form a winning coalition for next spring's election.

Two other potential challengers to Mayor Hahn are still on the sidelines: former Assembly Speaker Bob Hertzberg and current L.A. City Councilman and past mayoral candidate Antonio Villaraigosa. (City Controller Laura Chick ruled out a run for mayor last week.)

"If all of these candidates actually enter the race, it makes a runoff election quite likely," said local public affairs consultant Jorge Flores. "In that event, the key to the election will be who can stitch together the two or three constituencies needed to win citywide."

In his first three years, Hahn has at different times antagonized two of his key constituencies: African-Americans and San Fernando Valley residents. He either has to reassemble this coalition or find new supporters.

Villaraigosa drew support from Latinos and Westside liberals when he ran for mayor in 2001. "He should be able to keep that coalition, but he will have to reach out further if he's to win," Flores said.

Both Hertzberg and Alarcon have their base of support in the San Fernando Valley and will need to make serious inroads in other pans of the city, he said.

The candidate facing the toughest time will likely be Parks, who has to develop an appeal extending far beyond his natural base of support among African-Americans, Flores said.

Staff reporter Howard Fine can be reached by phone at [phone], ext. 227, or by e-mail at [e-mail].