Winter wonderland: snowmobilers love to play on Montana trails. (Winter Wonderland).

The debate over snowmobile use in national parks and the wild backcountry of Montana, Wyoming, and Idaho continues, with the Bush administration hoping to strike a compromise between environmentalists and the snowmobile industry.

In mid-November, the National Park Service released a new plan to limit snowmobile use in Yellowstone and Grand Teton national parks to 1,100 per day. That's more than the 10-year average of 840 snowmobiles per day, but less than the parks' holiday peaks.

In northwestern Montana, much of the debate is focused on high-elevation playgrounds in the Swan Range and the Jewel Basin, outside Glacier National Park's western boundary. There, snowmobilers and conservationists are trying to negotiate their own agreement, hoping to preserve the most popular riding spots while assuring non-motorized solitude in other areas.

At issue is the potential for snowmobiles--and the noise and air pollution they produce--to disrupt wildlife and wild places. It is an issue born of an increasingly popular winter sport, and of the greatly increased range and power of modern snowmobiles. For Montanans, it is an issue of considerable consequence--to their economy, their environment and to their enjoyment of winter in the backcountry.

The Bureau of Business and Economic Research's most recent surveys suggest that about 10 percent of Montana households include snowmobilers. Nearly always, the whole family participates. Given an average household size of about 2.5, perhaps as many as 95,000 Montanans recreate with snowmobiles.

The great majority of winter visitors to Yellowstone National Park, for instance, use snowmobiles. This is true in part because the park's internal roads are otherwise impassable to vehicles in winter. More importantly perhaps, West Yellowstone has successfully promoted itself as "The Snowmobile Capital of the World."

Our estimates suggest that nonresident snowmobilers spend about $225 per activity day, including food, lodging, and often, snowmobile rental costs, amounting to $44 million per year. On average, residents spend much less per activity day than nonresidents; most of their out-of-pocket costs are for gasoline. We estimate that resident and nonresident snowmobilers buy about 4 million gallons of gasoline per season. With a base tax of $.27 per gallon, we estimate that snowmobilers in Montana generate more than $1.2 million a year for the state highway trust fund.

In short, snowmobiling is a popular, revenue-generating winter sport in Montana. It is popular with a solid 10 percent share of households, and is increasingly popular with nonresident tourists.

Methodology

This project was sponsored by the Montana Department of Fish, Wildlife and Parks. Bureau of Business and Economic Research (BBER) staff conducted the research, using a two-pronged approach:

1. The BBER contacted 477 households with registered snowmobiles by telephone. Four hundred sixty households completed a computer-assisted telephone interview for a response rate of 96 percent. Although these characteristics may not be representative of all resident snowmobilers, they do reflect a solid sample of those who register their machines.

2. Information on nonresident snowmobilers was gathered in another way. We obtained the names of visitors to West Yellowstone from lodging facilities, then contacted 100 of these individuals by telephone. Only four people contacted refused to cooperate.

Assumptions

We used several basic assumptions to derive statewide impacts of snowmobile recreation. The following assumptions were applied to data from both resident and nonresident snowmobilers:

* Based on information from AAA Montana, we assumed an average gasoline price of $1.40 during the winter of 20012002. Prices were much higher in West Yellowstone.

* Fuel usage depends on size and age of machines, as well as terrain and snow conditions; based on information from active snowmobilers, we assumed an average fuel consumption of 10.5 miles per gallon of gas.

* According to officials in Yellowstone National Park, about 51,000 visitors entered the park from West Yellowstone between December 2001 and March 2002.

Other assumptions pertained to data analysis of impacts generated by resident snowmobilers only. Based on interviews with Montana snowmobilers, residents travel about 50 miles per activity day on their snow machines, and spend about $8.75 for fuel.

Several important assumptions were made about nonresident patterns of snowmobile use and activity. All the following were derived from interviews with nonresident snowmobilers:

* In Montana, nonresident snowmobilers travel about 85 miles per activity day--more miles than residents because nonresidents tend to come for one purpose and want their money's worth.

* Although they travel more miles, nonresidents spend less per day on fuel (about $5 on average) because gasoline costs are often covered by outfitters as part of snowmobile rental.

* The average length of a nonresident snowmobile vacation is four days.

Snowmobile Numbers

Snowmobile owners who use their snowmobiles on public lands are required to register with the Montana Department of Justice, Title and Registration Bureau. Figure 1 shows the number of snowmobiles registered since 1990.

Figure 2 shows the distribution by type of ownership as indicated by the Montana Department of Justice, Title and Registration Bureau. Private individuals own about 87 percent of the registered snowmobiles. Another 12 percent are used for rental or demonstration purposes, and nearly three-quarters of the rental machines are located in West Yellowstone. Just over 1 percent of registered snowmobiles are owned by corporate or governmental entities.

Rider Patterns

In order to estimate total ridership, we asked: "Does each trip member ride their own machine?"

The results showed snowmobile riding patterns that aren't too dissimilar from car commuter patterns. That is, most people ride single (Figure 3). Where resident snowmobilers double up, the primary reason was the second rider's youth.

Activity Days

One measure of the sport's popularity and potential impact is the number of "activity days," a figure roughly defined as the estimated number of snowmobilers and their average number of outings per season. Keep in mind that snowmobiling is a dispersed outdoor activity, so precise counts are virtually impossible. However, we have derived an estimate.

Of those households completing our interview, an average of two members per household were snowmobilers. The median number of outing days per season was reported at 14. The BBER last estimated participation rates for snowmobiling in 1997-1998. Assuming participation has not changed dramatically since 1997-1998, about 10 percent of Montana residents snowmobile. This suggests a total of about 1.2 million activity days per season for Montana snowmobile enthusiasts.

Recreation Sites

Nonresident snowmobilers flock to West Yellowstone, an area with world-class facilities and package tours. Results from previous Bureau studies suggest that more than three-fourths of nonresident snowmobilers spend time in or near West Yellowstone. We use this estimate to derive the nonresident activity days.

About 51,000 snowmobilers entered Yellowstone National Park during the winter of 2001-2002. On average, only about 2 percent of resident snowmobiling took place in Yellowstone Park, while previous Bureau survey data tell us that about 25 percent of all nonresident snowmobile activity took place in the park. Using these percentages, we arrive at 204,000 activity days for nonresident snowmobilers in Montana during the 2001-2002 season.

Other nonresident snowmobiling activity occurs in the Big Hole Valley, where nearby Idaho residents cross over; in and around Lookout Pass, where Idaho and Washington residents make day trips; and in northwestern Montana, where Marias Pass and Eureka draw some limited Canadian visitation. Smaller numbers of nonresident snowmobilers also visit Cooke City, Lincoln, and Seeley Lake. Nonresident visits to border areas outside Yellowstone Park are shorter, on average two days.

Thus, combined resident and nonresident snowmobile activity days in Montana amounted to 1.4 million during the winter of 2001-2002.

Expenditures

We estimated snowmobile-related spending for both residents and nonresidents. However, our major interest here is nonresident expenditures because they are part of Montana's important nonresident tourism industry. Like other "basic" industries, tourism brings new dollars into the state economy.

Our estimates of total activity days provided the basis for estimating expenditures per day. We used spending per day rather than per outing, because outings generally take only one day (for residents), or occupy several days (for nonresidents using package deals). We also calculated gasoline usage estimates on a per-day basis, even though for nonresidents, gasoline may be part of a package price.

Table 1 shows that total mean expenditures for nonresidents was almost $225 per activity day. Table 2 compiles total nonresident expenditures for each category for the year, based on the estimate of 204,000 nonresident activity days.

Nonresident snowmobilers spent more than $44 million in Montana during the 2001-2002 season. About $14.6 million of this went for lodging, while another $7.6 million was spent in Montana restaurants and bars.

In comparison, the BBER survey of resident expenditures suggests that residents typically don't incur lodging costs and spend less on eating and drinking and other expenses. Most residents don't make expenditures in several of the spending categories. As Table 1 shows, residents' median expenditures were about $25 per day, or about 10 percent the spending by nonresidents.

The impact of snowmobile-related spending can also be understood in terms of jobs and income. About 25 percent of nonresident spending becomes direct labor income for Montanans - income earned by people who work in lodging places, eating and drinking establishments, and other businesses that service tourists. The remaining percentage is spent on items that must be imported into Montana for sale such as film, groceries, and clothing.

Overall, we estimate that nonresident snowmobilers generate more than $11 million per year in labor income for Montanans, or about 800 full- and part-time jobs.

Residents also spend money to snowmobile in Montana, but are not considered part of the economic base since they do not bring new money into Montana. Table 3 summarizes these expenditures. Residents spend about $30 million on trip expenditures, mostly for gasoline, and another $70 million on yearly expenses. More than two-thirds of the yearly expenditures are spent on snowmobiles, trailers, and maintenance.

Increasing Popularity

We reanalyzed data from previous BBER surveys to determine an estimate of the change, if any, in snowmobiling's popularity and impact over the past few years.

Table 4 shows the change. Nonresident snowmobile activity increased by 20 percent over the period, from about 185,000 nonresident activity days in 1993-94 to more than 222,000 activity days in 1997-1998. Nonresident snowmobiling declined to about 204,000 activity days in 200 1-2002. Much of the decline may be attributable to a lack of snow in popular areas and public perception of limited snowmobile access to Yellowstone National Park.

Given the rise in activity days, it's somewhat surprising that nonresident spending did not grow substantially. One reason for this low growth is the increase in single-day trips by snowmobilers on the Montana-Idaho border. These visitors have characteristics similar to Montana residents.

Wish List

Residents and nonresidents also differed when asked to rate the importance of various snowmobile facilities, enhancements, and regulatory controls of the sport. As Table 5 shows, nonresidents were far more interested than residents in additional snowmobile-related signage, including roadside directions to sites, trail markers, and interpretive signs. More nonresidents also wished for heated shelters, and outhouses. Residents, on the whole, placed much less emphasis on such facilities and enhancements.

The two groups differed markedly in the importance each placed on regulatory and safety factors. A much greater share of nonresidents than residents wanted emergency help available at snowmobile sites, law enforcement, user fees, and limited entry.

In short, nonresidents seem more worried about safety and overcrowding, and are much more likely to accept certain controls on the sport. Residents, on the other hand, seem to want unregulated access, and are more willing to accept undeveloped sites.

Key Issues

Our survey also offered an opportunity for respondents to comment on what they thought was the most important issue facing snowmobilers. Access to snowmobiling areas and the political influence of environmentalists were the most frequently cited issues by residents. Nearly half of the residents surveyed mentioned access issues and about 13 percent mentioned safety, particularly personal responsibility. More than one-fourth of the nonresidents cited the environmental effects of snowmobiles.

Overall, differences in resident and nonresident responses to this open-ended question seem to echo other findings in the survey. That is, nonresident snowmobilers as a group seem more amenable to restrictions than do resident snowmobilers.

With the continuing debate over whether the National Park Service should limit snowmobile use in Yellowstone National Park, we asked our West Yellowstone respondents if they would return, even if they could not snowmobile in the park. More than 56 percent said they would return.

This access issue has economic implications for West Yellowstone. About $33 million of the total nonresident expenditures for snowmobiling occur in West Yellowstone. Restricting the number of individuals in Yellowstone Park during the winter could decrease nonresident expenditures by $10 million to $15 million. This decline assumes that some snowmobilers might be replaced by other winter recreationists. These expenditure estimates translate into losses of between $2 million and $4 million in labor income, affecting winter employment opportunities in West Yellowstone; some full-time jobs could become part-time and some part-time jobs could be eliminated. As many as 150 jobs could be lost if the National Park Service limits snowmobiling in Yellowstone Park.

Gasoline Used by Snowmobiles

Gasoline usage estimates are important because they suggest taxes contributed to Montana's highway trust fund by snowmobilers. Under existing law, a portion of these revenues are returned to snowmobilers through the trail grooming program.

We asked each respondent the average distance traveled on a typical snowmobile outing. Resident snowmobilers travel an average of about 50 miles per day. Nonresidents travel about 85 miles per day on average.

We used several additional items on the questionnaire to estimate and verify gas usage. Specifically, we asked three questions about each working snowmobile a household owned.

These results were then used to calculate the average amount of gasoline used by a Montana snowmobile in a year, and this average amount was multiplied by the number of privately owned snowmobiles. Rental machine usage was derived in a similar fashion. Nonresident usage was calculated on a per-day basis. Figure 5 summarizes these calculations.

Snowmobilers in Montana used about 4.5 million gallons of gas during the 2001-2002 season. Privately operated snowmobiles accounted for about two-thirds of the usage, or 2.6 million gallons; rental machines, about 1.3 million gallons; and nonresidents, about 679,000 gallons. Snowmobilers contribute about $1.2 million annually to the highway trust fund.

Summary

In summary, snowmobiling is a significant sport in Montana, with significant economic impacts. We estimate that nonresident snowmobilers spent more than $44 million in the state during the winter of 2001-2002. Residents spent about $100 million during the same period.

We estimate that snowmobilers (resident and nonresident alike) paid more than $1.2 million directly into Montana's highway trust fund during the 2001-2002 season via gasoline taxes. It's worth remembering, as policy makers and others eye this revenue stream, that resident and nonresident snowmobilers differ markedly in spending patterns, concerns, and desires. Development of facilities and regulation of the sport could satisfy one group at the expense of the other.

[FIGURE 1 OMITTED]

Table 1

Expenditures per Person per Day, Montana, 2001-2002

                        Resident                Nonresident

                       Mean  Median             Mean   Median

Gasoline for          $9.58   $8.75            $5.21    $1.67
 snowmobiles
Gasoline for           9.63   97.50            17.76     6.33
 transportation
Lodging                4.03    0.00            71.35    60.00
Eating/                8.89    5.00            37.44    25.00
Drinking
 places                4.95    3.75             6.60     4.17
Grocery stores         0.96    0.00             9.32     0.00
Entertainment         19.60    0.00            53.60    15.75
Snowmobile
 dealers               2.25    0.00            15.08    15.08
 Other retail
Other outing           0.77    0.00             8.21     0.00
 expenses

Total                $60.66  $25.00          $224.27  $128.00

Table 2

Total Nonresident Snowmobiler Expenditures, Montana, 2001-2002 Millions
of Dollars


Gasoline for snowmobiles              $1.1
Gasoline for transportation            3.6
Lodging                               14.6
Eating and drinking places             7.6
Grocery and convenience stores         1.3
Entertainment and recreation stores    1.9
Other retail                           3.1
Snowmobile dealers and repairs        10.9

Total                                $44.1

Table 3

Total Resident Snowmobiler Expenditures, Montana, 2001-2002


Gasoline for snowmobiles                 $10.5
Gasoline for transportation                9.0
Eating and drinking places                 6.0
Grocery and convenience stores             4.5
 Total trip expenditures                 $30.0
Snowmobiles                              S43.4
Snowmobile trailers                        8.6
Snowmobile clothing                        3.4
Safety equipment                           2.1
Snowmobile repair and maintenance          8.2
Snowmobile registration and licensing      1.2
Other yearly snowmobile expenditures       3.2
Total yearly expenditures                $70.1
Total resident expenditures in Montana  $100.1

Source: Bureau of Business and Economic Research, The University of
Montana-Missoula.

Table 4

Comparison of 1988, 1994, 1998, and 2002 Studies, Nonresident
Snowmobiler Expenditures, 2002 Dollars

                                1987-88      1993-94      1997-98

Number of days at
 destination                          4            5            4
Number of days
 snowmobiling                         3            4            4
Number of nonresident
 activity days                  108,000      185,000      222,000
Average daily expenditure
 per person (2002 dollars)         $265         $173         $211
Median daily expenditure
 per person (2002 dollars)         $187         $154         $124
Total expenditures
 (2002 dollars)             $38,803,000  $50,192,000  $46,948,000

                                2001-02

Number of days at
 destination                          4
Number of days
 snowmobiling                         2
Number of nonresident
 activity days                  204,000
Average daily expenditure
 per person (2002 dollars)         $225
Median daily expenditure
 per person (2002 dollars)         $128
Total expenditures
 (2002 dollars)             $44,137,000

Source: Bureau of Business and Economic Research, The University of
Montana-Missoula.

Table 5

Factors and Facilities Desirable to Resident and Nonresident
Snowmobilers in Montana, Percent Responding Very Desirable

                                                            1994
                                                    Resident  Nonres

FACILITIES
         Plowed parking areas                           47.5    50.7
         Road sign directions to snowmobile trails      50.0    83.1
         Snowmobile loading ramps                       17.3    19.7
         Heated shelters at the parking areas            8.4    25.4
         Groomed trails                                 53.7    85.3
         Nature interpretation along the trails         12.1    45.4
         Trail markers and signs                        68.7    87.3
         Trail maps                                     71.3    94.4
         Long trails                                    69.0    78.6
         Loop trails                                    63.2    82.1
         Shelters along trails                          26.1    55.6
         Outhouses along trails and parking areas       27.5    63.6

REGULATION
         Rider certification                            19.3    32.6
         Emergency help                                 29.5    48.9
         Law enforcement on trails                       7.5    33.8
         Limits on number of people                      5.4    28.6
         Entry permits to use an area                    2.0    23.9
         Volunteer assistants                           24.0    38.7
         Discourage large groups                         8.4    28.4
         User fees for groomed trails                   10.0    30.5

                                                            1998
                                                    Resident  Nonres

FACILITIES
         Plowed parking areas                           66.5    76.2
         Road sign directions to snowmobile trails      57.5    75.4
         Snowmobile loading ramps                       17.4    31.7
         Heated shelters at the parking areas           15.8    30.0
         Groomed trails                                 56.5    71.9
         Nature interpretation along the trails         21.7    50.0
         Trail markers and signs                        61.6    83.3
         Trail maps                                     66.6    87.5
         Long trails                                    58.3    81.5
         Loop trails                                    57.6    77.8
         Shelters along trails                          31.6    54.4
         Outhouses along trails and parking areas       35.7    50.8

REGULATION
         Rider certification                            38.0    40.8
         Emergency help                                 45.2    62.7
         Law enforcement on trails                      17.9    44.8
         Limits on number of people                      7.4    21.2
         Entry permits to use an area                    4.4    30.0
         Volunteer assistants                           46.6    57.4
         Discourage large groups                         8.2    26.8
         User fees for groomed trails                   18.8    41.4

                                                            2002
                                                    Resident  Nonres

FACILITIES
         Plowed parking areas                           56.6    60.4
         Road sign directions to snowmobile trails      36.1    61.8
         Snowmobile loading ramps                       11.7    13.3
         Heated shelters at the parking areas            6.7    34.0
         Groomed trails                                 48.2    71.6
         Nature interpretation along the trails          9.6    31.0
         Trail markers and signs                        43.0    70.3
         Trail maps                                     47.8    75.2
         Long trails                                    35.6    48.5
         Loop trails                                    34.8    53.0
         Shelters along trails                          14.5    36.7
         Outhouses along trails and parking areas       17.6    50.5

REGULATION
         Rider certification                            18.0    26.0
         Emergency help                                 29.8    43.9
         Law enforcement on trails                      10.3    29.0
         Limits on number of people                      4.0    13.3
         Entry permits to use an area                    2.7    21.8
         Volunteer assistants                           25.2    28.1
         Discourage large groups                         5.7    13.3
         User fees for groomed trails                    8.6    19.1

Source: Bureau of Business and Economic Research, The University of
Montana-Missoula.

Figure 2

Ownership of Registered Snowmobiles, Montana, 2001


Personal   87%
Rental     12%
Corporate   1%

Source: Montana Department of Justice, Title and Registration Bureau.

Note: Table made from pie chart

Figure 3

Nonresident and Resident Riding Patterns, Montana, 2001-2002


Ride Single  88%
Ride Double  12%

Source: Bureau of Business and Economic Research, The University of
Montana-Missoula.

Note: Table made from pie chart

Figure 5

Gasoline Used by Snowmobiles, Montana, 1990-2002

        Millions
       of Gallons

90-91     2.6
91-92     2.8
92-93     3.1
93-94     3.2
94-95     3.4
95-96     3.5
96-97     4.1
97-98     4.3
98-99     4.4
99-00     4.3
00-01     4.4
01-02     4.5

Source: Bureau of Business and Economic Research, The University of
Montana-Missoula.

Note: Table made from bar graph

James T Sylvester is an economist with the Bureau.