Windpower: small, but growing fast.

Wind power is now the world's fastest growing energy source. Global wind power generating capacity rose to 4,900 megawatts at the end of 1995, up from 3,700 megawatts a year earlier [ILLUSTRATION FOR FIGURE 1 OMITTED]. Since 1990, total installed wind power capacity has risen by 150 percent, representing an annual growth rate of 20 percent.

By contrast, nuclear power is growing at a rate of less than 1 percent per year, while world coal combustion has not grown at all in the 1990s.

If the world's roughly 25,000 wind turbines were spinning simultaneously, they could light 122 million 40-watt light bulbs or power over a million suburban homes. In the windy north German state of Schleswig-Holstein, wind power already provides 8 percent of the electricity.

Although it now generates less than 1 percent of the world's electricity, the rapid growth and steady technological advance of wind power suggest that it could become an important energy source for many nations within the next decade. The computer industry has demonstrated the potentially powerful impact of double digit growth rates. The fact that personal computers provided less than 1 percent of world computing power in 1980 did not prevent them - a decade later - from dominating the industry, and changing the very nature of work.

Wind power is being propelled largely by its environmental advantages. Unlike coal-fired power plants, the leading source of electricity today, wind power produces no health-damaging air pollution or acid rain. Nor does it produce carbon dioxide - the leading greenhouse gas now destabilizing the world's atmosphere.

In many regions, wind power is now competitive with new fossil fuel-fired power plants. At an average wind speed of 6 meters per second (13 miles per hour) wind power now costs 5-7 cents per kilowatt-hour, similar or slightly lower than the range for new coal plants. As wind turbines are further improved, with lighter and more aerodynamic blades as well as better control systems, and as they are produced in greater quantity, costs could fall even further, making wind power one of the world's most economical electricity sources.

The modern wind power industry established its roots in Denmark and California in the early 1980s. Spurred by government research funds, generous tax incentives, and guaranteed access to the electricity grids, a sizable wind industry was created. However, development slowed dramatically at the end of the decade as government tax incentives were withdrawn and utilities became more resistant to higher-cost electricity.

Even as political support for wind power waned in the late 1980s, the technology continued to mature. Many of the small turbines installed in the early days were expensive and unreliable, but the lessons learned from those first generation turbines were soon translated into new and improved models. The turbines that entered the market in the early 1990s incorporated advanced synthetic materials, sophisticated electronic controls, and the latest in aerodynamic designs.

In an effort to make wind power more economical, most companies have built larger and larger turbines. In Germany, the average turbine installed in 1995 had a capacity of 480 kilowatts, up from 370 kilowatts in 1994 and 180 kilowatts in 1992. Several manufacturers will soon introduce machines that can generate between 1,000 and 1,500 kilowatts - with blade spans as great as 65 meters.

The 1,290 megawatts of wind generating capacity added in 1995 was almost double the capacity added a year earlier, and up sixfold from the 1990 figure [ILLUSTRATION FOR FIGURE 3 OMITTED]. In 1995, the country with the most new capacity was again Germany, which added 505 megawatts, the most any country has ever installed in a single year. India added 375 megawatts, followed by Denmark with 98 new megawatts, Netherlands with 95, and Spain with 58.

The European wind industry is now growing at an explosive pace: altogether, Europe had 2,500 megawatts of wind power capacity at the end of 1995, up nearly three-fold from 860 megawatts in 1992 [ILLUSTRATION FOR FIGURE 2 OMITTED]. The United States still led the world with 1,650 megawatts of wind power capacity at the end of 1995, but Germany was closing in fast with 1,130 megawatts. Denmark ranked third with 610 megawatts, and India fourth at 580 megawatts.

Europe is now home to most of the world's leading wind power companies, which are introducing larger and more cost-effective models. Unlike the United States, where most development has consisted of large groups of 20 to 100 turbines, called "wind farms," Denmark and Germany have pursued a decentralized approach to wind power development. Most of their machines are installed one or two at a time, across the rural landscape. This has made them popular with local communities, which benefit from the additional income, public revenues, and jobs that result.

Europe's leadership also stems from the financial incentives and high purchase prices established for renewable energy in response to concern about the atmospheric pollution caused by fossil-fuel-fired power plants. In Germany, this approach has allowed determined investors and environmental advocates to beat back efforts by the electric utilities to reverse the 1991 "electricity in-feed law," which provides a generous price of about 11 cents per kilowatt-hour to electricity generators relying on solar, wind, and biomass energy. In a landmark vote in 1995, the Bundestag decided to uphold the law, though it remains under review by the courts.

Wind energy is also advancing rapidly in the Netherlands, Spain, and the United Kingdom. The U.K. has Europe's largest wind power potential, and hundreds of megawatts of projects are now being planned. European wind industry leaders are also hopeful that sizable wind power markets will soon emerge in Finland, Greece, Ireland, and Sweden, each of which has a large wind resource. Even France, the last bastion of the European nuclear industry, embarked on a sizable wind power development plan in 1995, aimed at adding 250 to 450 megawatts of wind power over the next decade.

Just as wind energy development is taking off in Europe, it has stalled in the United States, where the industry is buffeted by uncertainty about the future structure of the electricity industry. In fact, the country's total wind capacity has hardly increased since 1991. The country that led the world into wind power in the 1980s actually saw a net decline of 8 megawatts in its installed capacity in 1995. Some 50 megawatts were added - mainly in Texas - but 58 megawatts of old turbines were torn down in California. Kenetech, the leading U.S. wind power company, filed for bankruptcy in May 1996 after the combined effects of a slow market and mechanical problems with its new turbine led to large financial losses.

Prospects for developing nations are far brighter. Although most wind turbines are currently installed in industrial countries, much of the world's wind power potential is in the developing world. The leader so far is India, which is the first developing country with a real commercial market for wind power. India's roughly 3,000 wind turbines have virtually all been installed since the government opened the electricity grid to independent power producers and enacted tax incentives for renewable energy investments in the early 1990s. According to the government, 730 megawatts had been installed by April 1, 1996, which would make India the world's most active wind market in early 1996. However, uncertainty surrounding the Indian elections in May has slowed the pace of development since then.

Some of India's wind turbines are being imported, but others are manufactured in India, either by domestic companies or in joint ventures with foreign companies. Already, the Indian industry has more than 20 indigenous manufacturers and suppliers. In the windy southern state of Tamil Nadu, hundreds of jobs have been created as a result.

Many other developing countries, including Argentina, Brazil, China, Egypt, Mexico, and the Philippines are surveying their wind resources and installing small numbers of turbines on an experimental basis. Although none of these countries has yet encouraged or even permitted the development of a sustained, market-driven wind industry, some may be on the verge. China, for example, has just 36 megawatts installed but has plans to reach 1,000 megawatts by the year 2000.

In most developing countries, wind power development will be driven not by environmental concerns, as it is in industrial countries, but by a desperate need for electricity, which is in short supply throughout the Third World. In areas such as western China and northeast Brazil, wind power is the only indigenous source of electricity ready to be developed on a large scale.

The global wind energy potential is roughly five times current global electricity use - even excluding environmentally sensitive areas. In the United States, where detailed surveys have been conducted, it appears that wind turbines installed on 0.6 percent of the land area of the 48 contiguous states - mainly in the Great Plains - could meet one-fifth of current U.S. power needs - double the current contribution of hydropower. By comparison, the total cropland used to grow corn in the United States is nearly 3 percent of the country's land area. And unlike corn, wind power does not preclude the land from being used simultaneously for other purposes, including agriculture and grazing.

Other countries that have enough wind potential to supply most or all their electricity include Argentina, Canada, Chile, Russia, and the United Kingdom. China's wind energy potential is estimated by the government at 253,000 megawatts, which exceeds the country's current generating capacity from all sources by 40 percent. Much of that potential is located in Inner Mongolia, near some of the country's leading industrial centers.

India's potential is estimated at 80,000 megawatts, which equals the country's total current generating capacity. Europe could obtain between 7 and 26 percent of its power from the wind, depending on how much land is excluded for environmental reasons. Offshore potential in Europe's North and Baltic Seas is even greater.

Wind power cannot fully replace fossil fuels, but it has the potential to meet or exceed the 20 percent of world electricity provided by hydropower. Moreover, though wind power is more abundant in some areas than others, it is in fact one of the world's most widely distributed energy resources. More countries have wind power potential than have large resources of hydropower or coal.

Combined with other renewable energy sources such as solar and geothermal power, and by a new generation of gas-fired micro-power plants located in office and apartment buildings, wind power could help transform the world electricity system. These technologies could quickly replace coal and nuclear power - which together now supply two-thirds of the world's electricity - and allow a sharp reduction in world carbon emissions.