Will there be war with Iran?

Concerns that the Bush administration is planning a war with Iran date back almost two years, but recent developments seem to suggest that hostilities may be imminent. Among the signs pointing to a wider war in the Middle East involving Iran was the U.S. raid on the Iranian consulate in Irbil and the capture of five Iranian officials.

The raid came as the president, in his January 10 address to the nation, warned that U.S. forces would disrupt Iranian and Syrian aid to insurgents in Iraq. "Iran is providing material support for attacks on American troops" the president charged, promising: "We will disrupt the attacks on our forces. We'll interrupt the flow of support from Iran and Syria. And we will seek out and destroy the networks providing advanced weaponry and training to our enemies in Iraq."

Moreover, the president indicated in his speech that another aircraft-carrier battle group would be joining the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower battle group already in the Gulf region and that a Patriot missile battalion would be dispatched to the Middle East. The carrier, the USS John C. Stennis, had been scheduled to deploy to the Pacific, but according to a January 3 Reuters report, would be sent to the Gulf region instead "as a warning to Syria and Iran and to give commanders more flexibility in the region."

However, there's really only one reason to send the Stennis, and that is in case offensive operations begin, in which case an additional carrier battle group can provide a tremendous increase in firepower. Likewise, there is only one reason to send the Patriot missile battalion, and that is because it can be expected that Iran would launch short- and medium-range ballistic missiles against U.S. and allied targets in the region in response to any attack on its territory.

According to the Albuquerque Journal, the Patriot battalion will deploy for the Middle East in about six weeks. By then the Stennis should be in the region as well. The timing may be significant. As in the past, the Bush administration is likely to look for UN "authorization" for war. That would come if Iran fails to meet obligations imposed by UN sanctions. At present, Iran is subject to UN Resolution 1737, which is supposed to force the Islamic nation to end its nuclear program by February 21. What happens after the deadline? Only the Bush administration knows, but both the Patriot missiles and the Stennis will be in place shortly after the deadline passes.