Who will win the White House? This election is now in the hands of U.S. voters.

With less than one month to go until Election Day, November 2, it looks as if the country may be in for another political showdown. As in the presidential election of 2000, the race this year between President George W. Bush and Senator John F. Kerry may be decided by the narrowest of margins.

For months, the candidates have crisscrossed the country, talking to Americans about health care, education, the economy, and national security. At times, however, their messages have been drowned out by negative campaign ads.

Some of the nastiest ads have been from groups not directly controlled by the candidates. An organization called Swift Boat Veterans for Truth has attacked Kerry's service during the Vietnam War. Other groups, such as MoveOn.org, have questioned Bush's honesty and ability to lead.

But such ads are only one factor in a complex election whose outcome now rests in the hands of U.S. voters. Which man will they choose to lead the nation?

So far, both candidates have relied heavily on their running mates. John Edwards, the Democratic vice-presidential nominee and a Senator from North Carolina, possesses the kind of charisma (appeal) that many people think Kerry lacks. For his part, Vice President Dick Cheney brings more than 35 years of political experience to the Republican ticket.

* Eyes on Iraq

In the end, however, the election may ride on what happens in Iraq. If the process of rebuilding the war-torn nation seems to be on the right track, President Bush could secure a second term. Should violence continue to erupt, however, resulting in more American casualties, voters may turn to a new leader.

"If things are looking up and people feel better about what's gone on [in Iraq], they'll be willing to forget some of the problems Bush has had along the way," says Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. "But if things are not going well, we'll be hearing about the lack of weapons of mass destruction and how things are stuck in place."

* Appealing to Swing States

History has demonstrated that televised presidential debates can make or break a candidate. The 1980 debate between President Jimmy Carter and challenger Ronald Reagan turned a close race into a 10-point advantage for Reagan. In 2000, Vice President Al Gore turned off some voters by sighing impatiently during a debate with Bush.

This fall, candidates Bush and Kerry are scheduled to square off in three televised debates. For each man, a lot is at stake.

"Kerry has to demonstrate he's up for the job," says Miringoff. "That's what a challenger always has to do." President Bush, he adds, "has to demonstrate that the country is headed in a better direction, [and that] he's the safer bet over an untested Commander in Chief."

During the debates, the candidates will also try to woo swing voters (people who vote across party lines). Appealing to people in large battle-ground states like Ohio and Missouri, where the candidates are locked in a dead heat, will be crucial.

And in Florida, where 27 electoral votes are up for grabs, the race could be as tight as it was in 2000, when Bush beat Democratic candidate Al Gore by a mere 537 votes (see "Cliffhanger," p. 18).

* Three's a Crowd 

Many Democrats blame Ralph Nader for Gore's loss in 2000. Running on the Green Party ticket in that election, Nader won about 3 percent of the national vote. More important, he may have kept Gore from carrying at least two states, Florida and New Hampshire. This year, Nader will take another stab at the presidency, as an independent candidate. Democrats fear that he could again be a spoiler (candidate with no chance of victory who changes the outcome of an election).

"The potential is less this time because Nader is likely to get fewer votes," says Miringoff. "But in states that are close, his total [votes] could still be the difference between Bush or Kerry carrying a state."

Still, the focus remains on the candidates at the head of the Republican and Democratic tickets--and how they will use the crucial time left.

"Both sides have scored some runs along the way," says Miringoff. "But as we head into the final innings, it's still very close."

OBJECTIVE

Students should understand

* the backgrounds of President Bush, Senator Kerry, and Ralph Nader.

* WORDS TO KNOW

swing voters: people who vote across party lines.

* TEACHING STRATEGY

Ask students: "What qualifications would an ideal presidential candidate have?"

* BACKGROUND

After the Republican National Convention, President Bush became the clear leader in major opinion polls. A poll conducted by Time magazine last month showed him with a 52 to 41 percent margin over Senator Kerry. The President also seemed to be pulling ahead in key swing states, including Florida, Pennsylvania, and Ohio. Both campaigns said they expected the race to narrow again.

* CRITICAL THINKING

COMPREHENSION: Why are both President Bush and Senator Kerry trying to woo undecided voters? (Each candidate already has the support of voters loyal to his political party. Undecided voters may well determine the outcome in this race.)

CAUSE AND EFFECT: How will Ralph Nader affect the outcome of this year's election? (As in 2000, Nader is expected to draw support away from the Democratic presidential candidate, in this case Senator Kerry. Experts think Nader's impact will be minimal this year, but could still be the difference between Bush or Kerry carrying a particular state.)

* ACTIVITY

BE A CANDIDATE: Ask students to imagine that they are presidential candidates. What issues would define their candidacies? What slogans would they use to support their campaigns? Students should write an essay describing their campaigns, platforms, and goals as President.

STANDARDS

SOCIAL STUDIES, GRADES 5-8

* Individuals, groups, and institutions: How political leaders and their parties communicate their message to influence voters and win an election.

* Civic ideals and practices: How public service and a knowledgeable electorate are important components in a democracy.

George W. Bush

Party: Republican

Hometown: Crawford, Texas

Wife: Laura; Children: Twins Barbara and Jenna, 22

Pets: dog Barney, cat India

Fast Facts

* Bush is the first President to have earned a Masters in Business Administration (from Harvard).

* The President had a younger sister, Robin, who died of leukemia at age 3.

Platform: (see pp. 8-10)

John F. Kerry

Party: Democratic

Hometown: Boston, Massachusetts

Wife: Teresa Heinz Kerry;

Children: Daughters Alexandra, 31, and Vanessa, 27; Stepsons John, Andre, and Christopher Heinz Pet: dog Cym

Fast Facts

* Kerry is in his third term as Senator from Massachusetts.

* The Senator once saved the life of a Republican colleague by applying the Heimlich maneuver.

Platform: (see pp. 8-10)

Ralph Nader

Party: independent

Hometown: Washington, D.C.

Family: Unmarried, no children

Fast Facts

* Nader was a consumer-rights advocate and ran in the 2000 presidential election.

Platform

* Replace U.S. troops in Iraq with United Nations forces.

* Provide government-paid health care for all Americans.

* Replace current free-trade agreements with more open, democratic trade policies.

RESOURCES

PRINT

* Bush, George W., A Charge to Keep (William Morrow, 1999). Grades 7-8.

* Kerry, John F., A Call to Service (Viking, 2003). Grades 7-8.

GROLIER WEB SITE KEY WORDS

* President George W. Bush, Senator John F. Kerry

WEB SITES

* Re-elect President Bush www.georgewbush.com

* Senator John Kerry www.johnkerry.com