Where will people live?

Byline: The Register-Guard

Eugene doesn't need a new inventory to discover that the city is running short of land suitable for housing construction. What the city really needs is a fresh look at the perennial question of how Eugene should grow. The old terms of the debate - compact growth vs. sprawl - allow important decisions to be made by default.

Signs of a land shortage are everywhere. Homebuilders have been warning of scarcity for years. Houses are sprouting on lots long left vacant because of construction challenges. The price of buildable land is rising throughout the city. The first people to be squeezed out of a tight market are those seeking the least expensive housing, and such buyers find little to choose from in Eugene.

State law requires that cities maintain a 20-year supply of land available for primary uses, including housing. Eugene's planning staff determined four years ago that the city's inventory of residential land was adequate, and without council action the staff won't take another look at the supply for five or 10 years. With a variety of land-use projects already under way, the easiest course is to defer the issue of residential land supply until later, while allowing the tight market to serve Eugene's goal of compact development. Adding to the supply of land for housing, after all, requires costly investments in streets, parks, fire stations and other services.

The Lane Council of Governments, however, is encouraging people to take a broader view, and think about how the entire southern Willamette Valley may develop over the next 45 years. The agency projects that the area's population will grow by 160,000 by 2050 - a reasonable prediction, given that Lane County added just about exactly that number over the past 45 years.

If growth is to be concentrated in the Eugene-Metropolitan area, housing will have to be both available and affordable. Otherwise, the newcomers will migrate outside the urban area - transforming such towns as Veneta, Creswell and Junction City into small cities, or creating new growth centers in the rural fringes of Eugene and Springfield.

The numbers are substantial. The combined population of Eugene and Springfield is currently about 225,000. That figure could grow to 356,000 by 2050 if most growth occurs in the metropolitan area, or it could be as low as 275,000 if newcomers are induced to locate elsewhere in the southern Willamette Valley.

If growth is focused on what LCOG calls satellite communities, towns such as Creswell and Veneta could have populations of nearly 25,000 by mid-century. If rural areas are targeted for housing development, new bedroom communities of 10,000 residents or more would spring up in such areas as Alvadore, Goshen and Pleasant Hill.

Whether growth occurs in the Eugene-Springfield area or elsewhere nearby depends on many things, ranging from gas prices to trends in job creation. The cost and availability of housing, however, clearly shape development patterns. Subdivisions are already sprouting from Harrisburg to Cottage Grove, and many people living in them work in Eugene or Springfield but can't afford to live near their jobs.

Adding to Eugene's supply of land for housing is widely considered to be an invitation to sprawl. Directing housing development to surrounding communities is another form of sprawl - in some ways worse, if it means long commutes for many workers in the Eugene-Springfield area. The issue of growth is not confined by a city's boundaries. It extends far beyond, and decisions made or not made in Eugene today will affect development throughout Lane County.