Where Will The Wood.

Wood & Wood Products asks industry experts their predictions on the woodworking industry five years from now. Most answers address the growth of technology, computers and the Internet.

Predicting the future is an alluring idea. Whether it is a swami gazing into the crystal ball or a gypsy reading tarot cards, mankind has always wanted to know his destiny before it happens.

Wood & Wood Products asked industry leaders to sound off in this Millennium issue about where the industry will be in five years. The questions were simple enough: What current or emerging technology, issues or trends do you think will have a profound positive or negative effect on the North American woodworking industry by the year 2005? How will this help or hinder the way woodworkers operate?

The answers received were just as diverse as the industry itself, and show that the thing about predictions is that nobody is entirely sure what the future holds.

So here is the future, at least as people in the wood industry see it. Interspersed with these comments are some interesting outlooks from the past. Judging by those responses and where woodworking is today, the only thing for certain is that anything can happen.

Online And Growing Fast

"The Internet will affect woodworkers more than any other computer-controlled device in their business. It will bring them customers, designs and subcontracts. It will supply their shops, schedule their production and troubleshoot their problems.

"The Internet will be a source for employment and a means to compensate pay and coordinate benefits. It will pick a carrier and complete delivery.

"The Internet will then document all activity and cause payment for product and service rendered. A new level of customer service, communication and potential user satisfaction will be possible. Woodworkers who embrace the internet effectively will grow in the new millennium."

-- R.S. O'Brien, Onsrud Cutter 

"The greatest technological impact I see is coming from the utilization of the Internet and e-mail at all levels of the woodworking industry. It will raise the speed at which we all do business up to levels never seen before. Those that will change their administrative, marketing and manufacturing organizations to grasp the advantages offered by this technology will succeed. "Just-in-time" will be replaced by "instantly done."

"Machinery and manufacturing management will change to conform to the new rules of business. How? That is difficult to predict. We are machinery manufacturers and we are already looking into ways to exploit the advantages offered by this new technology and to diffuse the difficulties it may pose. I am sure many of our industry colleagues are doing exactly the same thing. And by the year 2005, we will be offering different products to the woodworking industry to allow them to cope with the new rules of the business at that time."

-Giordano Checchi, president, Giben America Inc.

CNC Technology Will Drive The Future

"The current movement toward increasing productivity through CNC technology is unlikely to abate through the year 2005.

"Larger shops will continue to diversify into all areas of woodworking from stairbuilding to cabinet making and will subcontract smaller shops with focused specializations such as creative woodturnings.

"Smaller shops will also utilize CNC production to deliver quality products in volume, but they will maintain and enhance their artistry by the unique designs they can offer. The sales and marketing effort (getting to the right customers and conveying a sense of uniqueness and value) will be a critical focus as competition becomes even more intense."

- Robert Weithofer, president, E&R Systems Technik Inc.

"Economic pressures will fuse connections among information technology, software, and CNC controls to drive production efficiency. Manufacturers will seek to eliminate finished goods inventory, minimize work in process, and drastically cut customer lead times. Achieving this multi-faceted goal will require flexible, just-in-time production systems dependent on computer numeric controls (CNC).

"CNC allows for seamless integration of design and production using data originally created in an office environment to facilitate production in the shop or plant. CNC also reduces or eliminates much of the time required to changeover equipment between production runs by automating the process through the machine control. This automation can include individual machines, workcells or complete production lines.

"Technology will also streamline the flow of information from the buyer to the manufacturer, helping to control production scheduling and the machinery required to produce the buyer's order. In the case of a furniture manufacturer, the buyer will be a retail outlet or an end user. Ultimately, orders will be processed directly from the Internet, with the 'buyer' controlling the links to the shop floor by placement of their order."

- Peter Kleinschmidt, president, Stiles Machinery

"As we embark into the next millennium, it is my belief that technology will remain to be the focus of the woodworking industry. Each new year presents fantastic opportunities for woodworking businesses through technology. Today many machines can be linked via software, and bar coding has completely changed automation. Regardless of size, businesses can be more flexible, productive and competitive where just a few years ago, that may not have been possible.

"Although technology will help us be productive, dedicated and loyal employees make a company successful. It is our industry's obligation to remain focused on providing state-of-the-art training to supply a constant flow of qualified, experienced employees."

-Kurt Waldthausen, president, Holz-Her U.S. Inc.

"Consumers will dictate how and when orders are placed. The industry will be faster paced. The consumer's buying power has never been higher. They will continue to expect more with a faster delivery and for less money. This will translate into more 'specials' and smaller run sizes on the shop floor. Manufacturing processes must become leaner, management must concentrate on eliminating non-value-added work -- set-up time, material handling and re-work. New equipment purchases will be focused more on flexibility and efficiency instead of capacity requirements.

"Quality standards will increase. In the past, we may have excepted a 2-3% reject rate as a normal part of business but tomorrow we will not be able to. If the order calls for only one or two of a specific part, then these parts must be good, first pass, every pass."

Kevin Arvin, Gabbiani Product Manager, Delmac Machinery Group

"The woodworking industry will continue to make use of the computer and its technology. Once, The computer or numerically controlled machine was only for the large and sophisticated customer. Now, this technology has filtered down to even the smallest of shops. This makes the smaller user much more competitive than ever before, but also requires him to become more than the artisan that he was in the past, as he must be continually aware of the new technology. This places more of a burden on his time.

"Further, technology is changing so fast that the life of machinery is becoming shorter. Not the mechanical life, but the CNC life. Computers and computer programming are changing much more quickly now than in the past, making their life much shorter and thereby shortening the life of the machinery."

Jerry LeVan, vice-president sales & marketing,

Biesse Group America

Finding Workers Today For Tomorrow's Jobs

"The greatest challenge facing owners and managers today and tomorrow is scarce labor. The solution has two parts: One, create great reasons for great people to work for you and; two, teach those people to think.

"By using new found logic and common sense, your workers will understand your problems, see them as opportunities and help you solve them. Only then will you be able to sustain your business with a steady flow of product, service and delivery innovations. Without that critical human asset, all the high-powered technology in world might as well be a pile of metal and wires."

Arthur Raymond, president, A. G. Raymond & Co. Inc.

"I believe there will be a breakthrough in the technology of wood processing. In our school systems today, our children are being taught that cutting trees is harmful to the environment. As our youth grow older, we stand a reasonable chance that consumer preference will demand a wood substitute material to produce cabinetry and furniture. Synthetic material is already on the rise. Manufacturers will be responsible for finding an alternative technology and material.

"E-commerce will play a role in the supply management chain. Would a consumer purchase a high-end kitchen over the Internet. I don't believe so. However, they will look for the information over the Internet to educate themselves before they purchase.

"Current labor shortages will ease but the shortage of skilled workers will persist due to competing fields of employment, hence the need for greater automation."

- Gary LeBlanc, executive vice president, Grass America

"Continuing labor shortages should cause companies to rethink their growth plans. To some, the path to future profit will be a conscious decision to shrink: concentrate on core capabilities and outsource non-critical components and processes. To others profitability will require investment in upstream technology (machining and finishing equipment) to minimize skilled, labor-intensive assembly operations.

Flow will be a critical factor in larger operations. They will no longer be able to afford the time or labor to move components thousands of feet through the manufacturing process. At successful companies, focused work cells and assemble-to-ship production lines located near the shipping docks will be driven by real-time manufacturing systems.

- Howard Feldman, president, Feldman Engineering Corp.

"Facing the ever-increasing costs of material and labor, manufacturers will be looking harder and harder to find ways to increase yield, get accurate tallies and lessen the dependency on labor. The answer to a lot of these problems will be: automatic lumber scanning technology. The advent of new and improved technology in laser, x-ray, ultrasonic and camera-based systems will revolutionize the way wood is cut. A scanning system that detects all types of defects in hardwoods and softwoods, including knots, dead knots, wane, holes, certain types of fungal and mineral stains, splits, pith, pitch and slope of grain at production speeds is already here.

"Automatic lumber scanning will operate in real time on the NT platform and provide accurate data for just-in-time flexible plant management through the rough mill. Operator training will require only a day and only the quantities specified by each cutting bill will be cut, while obtaining the highest possible yield at the gang rip/cut-off saws. Not only will automatic lumber scanning increase yield and save lumber, it will help to prevent overages and underages, making cutting too much (or too little) a thing of the past.

"In the next millennium, use of automatic lumber scanning and optimizing systems will save lumber, give accurate tallies, decrease labor, plus give huge yield increases that will go straight to the bottom line."

-- Sandy Mullin, president, Barr-Mullin Inc.

Regulation and Certification

"Government regulations and enforcement of such regulations will continue to increase, causing even greater concern for improved dust collection for woodworkers. The government regulations have always been there, however the enforcement with penalties from OSHA has greatly increased the concern of proper dust collection. The dust collection manufacturers have always provided government-approved systems. However, with the knowledge of the possibility of penalties and fines, this has become an even greater incentive to improve systems.

"Because of these regulations woodworkers have been challenged to understand dust collection design. With this increased understanding, systems will continue to be designed with much greater efficiency, which allows for a cleaner, safer and more productive working environment."

-Jamison Scott, manager of marketing and administration, Air Handling Systems

"The issue of certification of lumber from certified forests does not seem to go away, even with most of the industry trying to ignore it and hoping that it will. If it continues to pick up steam, it will eventually change not only the cost of raw materials, but the way we market and sell our products. It could have a positive impact on innovative companies who look for new markets for existing products or new products that fit their existing production lines. What the impact will be by the year 2005 is still very uncertain."

Sam Stoltzfus, president, Keystone Wood Specialties Inc.

"PUR hotmelt is fast becoming the premier glue of choice. With its superior bond strength, fast working parameters and 100% solid and user-friendly characteristics, this product will continue to find more and more applications.

"One component reactive PUR for membrane pressing will replace all traditional products. There will be no mixing and no mess.

"Business in general will start slower but will pick up steam as we get into the decade, a trend which can be seen over the beginning of each decade for the past 30 years."

Jerry Crouse, vice president of sales, Jowat Corp.

Multiple Challenges Ahead

"We are entering into a new millennium with many challenges facing the U.S. woodworking industry. These challenges encompass two important points: cost management and service effectiveness.

"The industry has become more efficient in the last few years, but still is not as competitive on the international level as the importation of goods and components grows exponentially If the competitive edge is not cost driven, it has to be service driven.

"The service industry makes up 70% of this country's GNP. Excelling in this area is a must for any company wanting to grow effectively. Service relies on understanding consumer demands and filling their needs better than the competitor.

"JIT production is a must, but also presents a challenge in terms of cost management. Producing one piece at a time and offsetting the direct and indirect cost, while generating a profit represents the challenge faced presently, and in the future, by companies large and small. Seamless, flexible production is what is required: two familiar words implying a radical change in management, and shop configuration.

"A new breed of machine operators, a new approach to production and logistics management, new ways to manage a shop floor -- these are all challenges the industry is facing, and will continue to face even more in the years to come. Equipment suppliers are stepping up to assist in making this leap to the next level as fast and as smooth as possible, but the level of success in the implementation will depend on the quality of resources that the progressive shops will make available."

John Gangone, executive vice president, SCM GROUP USA Inc.

"I believe there will be more integration of machinery. We will see the linking of information and machines with material flow, more use of part labeling, increased nested manufacturing and cell technology and more "on-floor" accessible information to allow for paperless reporting."

Bob Gowen, president, Pattern Systems International Inc.

"Environmental concerns will continue to be the driving factor affecting change in finishing operations. The steady reduction of VOC's will continue, resulting in the increased use of waterborne and plural component materials, elimination of lead and heavy metal pigments, and changes in the solvents used in traditional fluids. Reporting requirements will become stricter and waste disposal will be more expensive. These changes will impact small manufacturers and custom wood shops, as well as the larger furniture manufacturers. This will result in pressure on material suppliers and manufacturers of application equipment to find new and acceptable formulations and applications methods."

"To help the manufacturer make the right equipment choices, we are developing pre-assembled finishing packages for specific finishing packages include all the components of a finishing system from pump to gun.

Michelle Striggow, Product Marketing Manager, Graco Inc.

"Production costs continue to rise for wood component manufacturers. Lumber and materials costs currently account for approximately 53% of the total cost of producing wood components. This represents a big jump from the 43% recorded in 1985. However, these increased costs are not being recovered by secondary woodworking manufacturers due to increased competition and low margins brought about by the current low inflation, price-sensitive economic environment. Pricing pressures at the retail level are forcing manufacturers to lower production costs and absorb some of their labor and materials cost increases.

"Finding, training and retaining qualified employees is becoming much more difficult in our low unemployment working environment. All manufacturers will continue to have a difficult time finding qualified people to fill the more skilled positions. Wood product manufacturers must find ways to attract qualified workers while overcoming the industry's comparatively low compensation level and strong competition for available workers.

"There has been an explosion of new, high-tech woodworking machinery and equipment in recent years. Although this new machinery and technology has enabled woodworkers to improve yields and increase production efficiencies, it has come at a comparatively high cost. The challenge is to find the right machinery and equipment needed to make the necessary improvements. All capital expenditures must be justified in terms of improved yields, increased productivity and improved product quality while lowering production costs.

In summary, wood component producers must continually look for ways to be more competitive in today's global marketplace. Although sales will continue to grow, profit margins must improve. There will be a constant pressure to provide low cost, high quality components that are produced with shorter lead times. Woodworkers will he challenged to lower costs, improve productivity and better utilize raw materials."

Steve Lawser, Wood Component Manufacturers Association