Wheat.

Daily Chicago December Wheat

Trend is higher.

The pullback from the contract high of $9.61 [frac34] is just a correction. A 25% retracement of the last leg up from the mid-August low is at $8.88 3/4 and a 25% retracement of the entire rally is at $8.34 3/4. Key flat support on the chart lies at $8.14. A push to a new contract high would have bulls targeting the psychological $10.00 level.

Position Monitor -- All Wheat

                       '07 crop  '08 crop

Cash-only:                  85%       35%

Hedgers (cash sales):      100%       50%
Futures/Options              0%        0%

GAME PLAN: Cash-only marketers made the final 15% 2007-crop sale Oct. 3. All should be ready to increase 2008-crop sales on signs of a major top.

Fundamental analysis

SRW: Attitudes remain bullish given tight world supplies and strong demand. But the wheat market needs a consistent dose of fresh supportive news to continue charging higher. If bullish news dries up, the wheat market would become susceptible to a potentially sharp pullback.

HRS: If the wheat complex stops going up, Minneapolis wheat futures could see spread unwinding with the winter wheat markets. Speculative buying has inflated Chicago and Kansas City futures more than Minneapolis futures in comparison on the run to record highs.

HRW: Very little attention is being given to the slower-than-average winter wheat planting and emergence pace in the Plains. With winter wheat plantings expected up sharply due to record prices, it will take time to get the crop fully seeded. Instead, focus is on the bullish world supply/demand situation. The slowed planting and emergence pace won't become a concern unless they become severe.

Daily Minneapolis December Wheat

A close below $8.48 would signal at least a short-term top. A close below $7.53 would likely indicate the bull run is over.

Daily Kansas City December Wheat

A close below $8.80 would mark a short-term top and suggest an extended pullback to at least $7.77 is likely.