Whatever happened to virtual reality?

What ever happened to the promise of virtual reality?

Back in the 1970's very few if any commercial real estate brokers used computers. Those of us who did were asked "Do you want to be a real estate broker or a flight controller?" But those of us who persevered dreamed of the day when everyone had a computer on their desk or in their pocket.

The number one objective was to get rid of those stupid three by five cards. You needed at least three copies of the same card. You had to put one in the alphabetical drawer, one in the lease expiration drawer and one in the tickler drawer. Others had a fourth drawer for filing by square footage and those with an advanced degree in three by five cards had a leads drawer, a prospect drawer and a super secret drawer (which is where you kept the pie in the sky prospects or "the big one").

Let's face it, anyone who could keep that many cards straight didn't need a computer--they were just far smarter than I was. Me, I learned how to use dbase III.

But back to virtual reality. I remember sitting in a conference room dreaming of the day when we could bring the real estate to the customer. We could sit in the customer's conference room and arrange a virtual walk through of the available space. Or better yet, we didn't have to be in the room, we could be on a video conference screen and we could take a virtual tour while I was in my office and the customer was in his. Is anybody doing that yet?

Today everyone has a blackberry, pocketpc or IPAQ. Those little machines are 10 times more powerful than my first two computers.

So are they walking around the streets connected to the listing system, downloading floor plans, showing customers pictures, maps or financial projections in the palm of their hand?

And, by the way, the listing system was a handy little invention. Remember when the only market data we had were piles of flyers that we collected on the receptionist's desk? That was when you would call a customer to ask him if he was interested in space, hang up, call around, call the guy back in about two weeks and he would remember you. Now if I don't offer him an email, web-conference or web site to look at, by the time I print out a hard copy and walk it over, two of my competitors will have already contacted him.

And collaboration, that was a word never used. It was more like "Private, Keep Out" sign. You spent a lot more time hiding information from people than sharing. Today, we have new programs that allow us to collaborate online. We have customer websites and shared databases and tons of emails going back and forth.

Remember when we had meetings to discuss the deal? Now all we need to do is send out a blanket email to let everyone know the status of the transaction.

And projections, who needs projections? Do you like the space or not? If you like the space then lets do a deal; why does a tenant need to know how much it will cost over the next 10 years? Or which deal is less expensive, under what conditions? The only sensitivity analysis I need is to know how upset I will be if I don't make the deal.

I remember the first time one of the senior brokers gave me a ledger pad and told me to figure out the value of a large office building. After spending weeks with my ledger book, a pencil and a big eraser, I vowed that I would figure out bow to do that on the computer. And that was when I invented lease analysis, by the way. I realized that running projections on an office building was remarkably similar to projected lease costs for a tenant. So I have been running lease analysis for tenants on a computer ever since.

How did we get along without a projection system? How do you sell without a powerpoint presentation or a connection to the Internet projected on the wall? Remember stencils? My favorite was getting the little arrows at the stationary store (not Staples) and rubbing them onto the page to designate the "subject property." Now I can put a hyperlink in a document and be whisked off to a video clip!

So many technological marvels have changed the way we do business. We have come a long way, we still have a long way to go and some interesting new developments are on the horizon.

Still no virtual reality though.

JONATHAN C. RUDES

SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT

WINOKER REALTY COMPANY