What will happen in Lebanon if Assad's regime falls?

What will happen in Lebanon if the regime of embattled Syrian President Bashar al-Assad  collapses is a question that is increasingly bugging Lebanese citizens and non-Lebanese alike. Rival political leaders are very concerned about the repercussions if the massive instability in Syria spills over into smaller Lebanon as well. What is alarming about the Syrian protests - inspired mainly by the Arab Spring popular uprisings currently roiling the Arab world - is the continued violence despite the presence of Arab League monitors to ensure Syria's compliance with a League peace plan to end the unrest, which has entered its tenth month with no end in sight.

However, despite the presence of Arab observers and Arab and international economic and political sanctions imposed on the Syrian regime to halt the brutal crackdown on pro-democracy protesters calling for Assad's removal, the killing of both civilian protesters and Syrian troops continues unabated. The United Nations estimates that more than 5,000 people, mostly civilians, have been killed since the uprising began in mid-March, 2011

The crisis in Syria has sharply split the Lebanese. While the Hizbullah-led March 8 alliance backs the Assad regime, the opposition March 14 coalition, led by the Future Movement of former Prime Minister Saad al-Hariri, has come out in staunch support of protesters demanding Assad's ouster. Future and March 14 parties have staged several rallies in northern Lebanon condemning the Assad regime and showing solidarity with the protesters.

As Assad is fighting for survival in the face of the gravest challenge to his 11-year rule posed by the uprising, the possibility of a regime change in Syria is bound to leave far-reaching repercussions on the region in general, and on Lebanon in particular. It is no secret to say that Lebanon's anti-Syrian Western-backed March 14 parties, including Hariri, are anxiously waiting for the day when the Assad regime is brought down under the pressure of street demonstrations. In these parties' assessments, Assad's removal would boost their political chances and standing in Lebanon, and weaken their arch foe, the powerful Shiite Hizbullah group which, in their view, is controlling the political decision-making in the government.

Major Loser

Political analysts say Hizbullah is likely to emerge as a major loser from a regime change in Syria, which has raised questions about how the militant party will behave when it loses such a key Arab ally. Hizbullah has come under harsh criticism for backing the Arab Spring in Egypt, Tunisia, Libya, Bahrain, everywhere except Syria. No doubt, Syria's strategic alliance with Iran and Hizbullah will be in jeopardy if the Assad regime falls.

Hariri, who has staged a scathing campaign against Assad, calling him "a tyrant" and "a liar", and other March 14 leaders have predicted Assad's downfall this year. "Bashar thinks he can outsmart the Arab League and the world. He will fall so hard," Hariri told his supporters on the popular social networking website Twitter last month. Hariri, who has blamed Assad and Hizbullah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah for the ouster of his government in January 2011, said a democratic change in Syria would have a positive impact on Lebanon.

Similarly, Hariri's key Christian ally, Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea, predicted the collapse of the Assad regime this year, saying the development would lead to the emergence of a new balance of power in Lebanon and launch the process of state building. "The year 2012 will witness the collapse of the Syrian regime. This will have big repercussions on the Lebanese situation and will result in another balance of power," Geagea told his supporters at his residence in Maarab, north of Beirut, on Jan. 2.

Independent Bloc

Emile Khoury, a political analyst with the opposition newspaper AN NAHAR, said the collapse of the Syrian regime would lead to the rise of new political alliances in Lebanon, including a bloc that is independent from both the March 8 and March 14 parties. Hizbullah has warned that the turmoil in Syria could spill over into Lebanon and called on rival Lebanese factions not to interfere in internal Syrian affairs. "The circumstances through which our country is passing are calm now. But the circumstances in the region within which we live are difficult, harsh and complicated," Sheikh Mohammed Amr, head of a Hizbullah delegation, told reporters after meeting with Maronite Patriarch Beshara Rai on Jan. 2 to congratulate him on Christmas and the New Year. Amr, speaking with Rai standing next to him, said: "We fear the [regional] conflict will spread to Lebanon. But with your wisdom and the wisdom of Lebanese leaders on whom we call to use reason and logic in their political movement and dialogue to stay away from interfering in others' affairs because Lebanon cannot afford any political, military or security trouble."

The Lebanese government, which is dominated by Hizbullah and its March 8 allies, has followed a policy of dissociating itself from U.N. or Arab League resolutions condemning Syria over its brutal crackdown on protesters. However, March 14 politicians have accused the government of supporting the Syrian regime against protesters. President Michel Suleiman is seeking to resume national dialogue between March 8 and March 14 leaders stalled since November 2010 in an attempt to protect Lebanon from the reverberations of the popular upheavals in the Arab world.

For his part, Prime Minister Najib Mikati has called for national unity in order to stave off the repercussions of the political and economic turmoil in the region. He also called for solidarity among members of his government torn by splits to meet financial, economic and social challenges in the new year. "We are poised for a year full of important developments like those we witnessed in the past year and probably more. All indications suggest that our region has entered a state of political and economic instability, which prompts us to warn of the gravity of the repercussions whose impact could spread to more than one place. Hence, we must be ready to prevent any negative impact on us," Mikati said in a speech on Dec. 29, addressing staff at the Grand Serail on the occasion of the New Year holiday.

Referring to the current popular upheavals in the region that have so far led to the overthrow of leaders in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya, Mikati said: "We were able in the past months to overcome many problems by ensuring good stability amid tense conditions in the region around us, thanks to the united position of the Lebanese who gave priority to the supreme national interest and the national awareness of the significance for Lebanon to remain an ideal country for common coexistence and dialogue among cultures."

Hizbullah's Arms

Khoury, AN NAHAR's analyst, said the role of Hizbullah's arms would be put to the test if the Assad regime collapsed. He wondered whether Hizbullah would use its arms to destabilize Lebanon if the Assad regime fell. "If Lebanon has escaped from an economic strike after the government reached a consensus on the funding of the international tribunal, will it escape from the repercussions of what is happening in Syria if the regime there decided to hold Lebanon hostage for bargaining over the price of ending the unrest?" Khoury said in a news analysis on Dec. 27. "In fact, will Syria, which has been keen on making its security linked to Lebanon's security ... succeed this time in making Lebanon foot the bill for the collapse of its regime and the establishment of another system that conforms with the system in Lebanon?" he asked.

Khoury said that when Hizbullah and its March 8 allies were tested in the issue of funding the U.N.-backed Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL), probing the 2005 assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik al Hariri, "The party gave priority to Lebanon's interest by keeping the Mikati government in power over its interest which is harmed by the continuation of this tribunal." "Will Hizbullah again give priority to Lebanon's interest over the interest of its Syrian ally by rejecting to be a spearhead in undermining stability, especially if this does not guarantee the salvation of the Syrian regime?" Khoury asked. He said that if Hizbullah destabilized Lebanon without saving the Syrian regime, it would then bear responsibility for the destruction of the country without getting anything in return.

Khoury, quoting diplomatic sources, said that Hizbullah would not use its arms inside Lebanon unless this was in the interest of Iran or Syria or both of them. He said this depended on the results of ongoing contacts on the situation on Iraq as to whether "Iran would have wide influence in Iraq to compensate the loss of its strategic position in Syria as a bridge to cross to regional states." "If an agreement is reached on this [Iran's influence in Iraq], Hizbullah will have no interest in sacrificing Lebanon's security for the sake of Syria's security. It will then prove again that its arms are arms for resisting the Israeli enemy rather than for use internally with a view to upsetting the political balance of power," Khoury said. "But if such an agreement is not reached, security in Lebanon will be in jeopardy no matter what the government does to protect it because Hizbullah's arms will then have a regional role," he added.

Noting that the Lebanese are split over the crisis in Syria, Khoury said: "Lebanon cannot be rescued from the repercussions of what is happening in Syria unless the situation there is quickly solved and all parties are presented with a new de facto matter, or if Iran abandons Syria by signing an agreement with America and Western states whose value is equal or is more than the price of abandoning [Syria]. Such an agreement, if it materializes, will reflect positively on Lebanon and it will then be possible to reach a solution for the issue of Hizbullah's arms, especially when the party proves that it gives priority to Lebanon's interest over any outside interest."