What will Saskatchewan look like in 2015?

Last fall Action Saskatchewan hosted Gathering 2005, a summit on Saskatchewan's future that brought a spectrum of representation from Saskatchewan, including the credit unions, arts, agriculture, health, law enforcement, mining, First Nations, Metis, public servants, Crown corporations, business, professional associations and tourism.

Three scenarios for the future were developed, based on differences in the impact and rate of change of the major demographic, economic, social, and attitudinal trends in Saskatchewan. All futures are possible, depending on the decisions we make today.

Scenario One: Naive Contentment 

The "Naive Contentment" Saskatchewan looks much the same as today.

* Population Decline Continues--our youth are joined by our baby boomers in leaving;

* Slow Progress on Aboriginal Employment Parity--small increase in education and employment leads to frustration about the lack of parity;

* Slow-Growth Resource Economy--we continue to export raw materials and import finished goods.

* Balanced Budgets but Shrinking Tax Base--our shrinking tax base makes it harder to pay for health, education, and infrastructure with balanced budgets;

* Government Grows--public sector employment dominates and our Crown corporations remain a large part of economy;

* Incomes Low but Tax Bite High--our incomes remain low and the local and provincial taxes continue to take a big bite out of family incomes;

* Quality of Life Good, but Future Bleak--we like our quality of life but remain negative about our province's future and don't encourage our children to build their futures here.

Scenario Two: Small Steps, Big Impact

The "Small Steps, Big Impact" Saskatchewan has small population growth for the first time in 30 years, resulting in better growth of our economy.

* Modest Population Growth--more job opportunities plus an immigration strategy meant more stayed and more came;

* Growth in Aboriginal Workforce--higher education, workforce participation and entrepreneurship meant progress towards parity;

* Resource Investment and Spin-Offs--major investments have grown the oil and gas, potash, and uranium sectors, and led to spin-off businesses;

* Growth in Value-Add--modest growth in meat processing, food processing and functional foods buffers agriculture from world markets;

* Public Sector Major Employer--health care, education, and the Crowns are major employers;

* Government Spending Stable--population growth meant government spending relative to GDP is stable and a competitive tax structure improved investment;

* Better Business Climate--government policies reflect the pro-business view of Saskatchewan residents;

* Saskatchewanians More Upbeat--we are upbeat about our life and our future; and know we can compete.

Scenario Three: Best Place to Live, Work, and Play

"Best Place to Live, Work, and Play" Saskatchewan is an energy province, drawing people from around the world;

* Population is 1.2 Million and Growing--high in-migration from Canada and the world;

* Aboriginal Parity--one-fifth of our population, workforce, businesses, and leaders are aboriginal;

* Diversified, Value-Added Economy--driven by an educated workforce and research in environment, biotechnology, health, pharmaceuticals and advanced technology;

* Value-Add Driven Agriculture--growth in meat processing, food processing, functional foods and biodiesel is making agribusiness profitable;

* Energy Economy Booming--wind, and solar power; uranium processing, and biodiesel production are surging;

* Low Local and Provincial Tax Rates--low provincial and local taxation and growth of the private sector has meant that the public sector no longer dominates the economy;

* Celebration of Success--wealth generation is acceptable, making it easier for businesses and residents to prosper here;

* Have-Province Mentality--we've shed our "have not" image and we're telling our children that Saskatchewan is the best place to live, work and invest!

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We invite you to join us. For more information contact the Saskatchewan Chamber at [e-mail], phone us at 306-352-2671, or visit our Web site at www.actionsask.com.

by Dr. Arthur Whetstone