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What credit crunch? (Investments & Finance).


WHAT if the Federal Reserve cut rates and no cared?

That's the gist of stories suggesting the U.S. is experiencing a 'credit crunch."

"What good is cheap money if banks won't lend it and firms don't want it?" asked the New York Post The New York Post is the 13th-oldest newspaper published in the United States and the oldest to have been published continually as a daily.[3] Since 1976, it has been owned by Australian-born billionaire Rupert Murdoch's News Corporation and is one of the 10  in a Sunday article, "Credit Crunch Credit Crunch

An economic condition whereby investment capital is difficult to obtain. Banks and investors become weary of lending funds to corporations thereby driving up the price of debt products for borrowers.
 Looms."

The authors of this and similar articles don't understand what a credit crunch is, which is probably why they use the term without defining it.

The support data for the credit-crunch articles are confined con·fine  
v. con·fined, con·fin·ing, con·fines

v.tr.
1. To keep within bounds; restrict: Please confine your remarks to the issues at hand. See Synonyms at limit.
 to one category of bank loan -- commercial and, industrial loans, which are used primarily to finance business inventories. A glance at C&l loans, available in a weekly report from the Fed, reveals that C&l loans peaked in February 2001 and have declined steadily since then.

Given the plunge in inventories, the drop in that category is no surprise. Business inventories peaked in January 2001 and declined for 15 consecutive months before inching higher since April. The inventory-to-sales ratio is at an all-time low of 1.34 months.

Outside of loans to finance inventories, it's quite a different story. Real estate loans increased at a 21 percent annualized annualized

Of or relating to a variable that has been mathematically converted to a yearly rate. Inflation and interest rates are generally annualized since it is on this basis that these two variables are ordinarily stated and compared.
 rate in the last three months; home equity loans were up 24 percent, which is. less than half the rate from three months earlier. Total loans and leases, which is bank credit less securities purchases, rose 10 percent annualized in the 13 weeks ended Oct. 30, up from a 2.6 percent rate six months earlier.

Add in securities, the other category of bank assets, and bank credit expanded at an 11 percent annualized pace in the past 13 weeks.

"It seems, banks are supplying more, not less, credit. C&I loans may be headed south but the other categories are expanding briskly.

If companies posing a high risk can't borrow or have to pay penalty rates for loans, that's not a crunch. It's credit risk being priced by the lender.

The current situation "is not like the early 1990s, when banks were raising their capital-to- asset ratios and would not lend to anyone," said' Neal Soss, chief economist The Chief Economist is a single position job class having primary responsibility for the development, coordination, and production of economic and financial analysis. It is distinguished from the other economist positions by the broader scope of responsibility encompassing the  at Credit Suisse First Boston Credit Suisse First Boston was originally the trading name of the Financière Crédit Suisse-First Boston, a London-based 50-50 investment banking joint venture formed in 1978 between the First Boston Corporation and Credit Suisse. .

"Banks are eager to lend to the household sector," Soss said. "And some businesses have no trouble getting credit. But to a certain class of companies" -- such as telecom and energy companies -- "credit is unavailable."

There's another reason focusing on C&l loans creates an inaccurate picture of the availability of credit in the economy. "As a fraction of bank assets, C&l loans have been in a trend decline for 15 years," Soss said.

More corporate credit demand is being satisfied in the credit markets. While corporate debt sales have slowed this year from last year's record pace, the $447 billion sold year-to-date isn't exactly shabby shab·by  
adj. shab·bi·er, shab·bi·est
1.
a. Showing signs of wear and tear; threadbare or worn-out: shabby furniture.

b.
. Credit is available for creditWorthy cred·it·wor·thy  
adj.
Having an acceptable credit rating.



credit·wor
 borrowers while households are encouraged by teasers and promotions to borrow more.
COPYRIGHT 2002 CBJ, L.P.
No portion of this article can be reproduced without the express written permission from the copyright holder.
Copyright 2002, Gale Group. All rights reserved. Gale Group is a Thomson Corporation Company.

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Article Details
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Author:Blaum, Caroline
Publication:Los Angeles Business Journal
Geographic Code:1USA
Date:Nov 18, 2002
Words:482
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