What about alternative energy? New power sources and conservation could curb America's dependence on foreign oil. But it would require government help.

The possibility of an Iraq-related oil crisis is breathing new life into dreams of alternative energy. A combination of expanded domestic oil drilling, more fuel-efficient engines, and greater use of unconventional and renewable power sources could make it happen, say advocates of energy independence.

Among their ideas: huge fields of high-tech windmills that would brew power out of the wind; giant arrays of solar panels generating electricity from sunlight; and a futuristic automobile that runs on hydrogen.

Those ideas, however, all face formidable political and economic obstacles. Currently, alternative and renewable fuels provide only about 5 percent of U.S. power, and most are more expensive than oil power. Without tax breaks or other government subsidies, analysts say, alternative fuels won't take off.

"We can only lower the costs so much," says John Mogford, a vice president responsible for renewable resources at BP, the third-largest oil company. "Until policy makers change societal priorities, renewables will develop at quite a slow pace."

DRILLING OVER WIND-MILLING

President George W. Bush has so far taken a conservative approach. The administration's energy plan calls for more oil drilling in the U.S.--including along the nation's coasts and in Alaska's Arctic National Wildlife Refuge--coupled with modest increases in automotive fuel efficiency.

Drilling in the refuge, which may contain between 3 billion and 16 billon barrels of oil, is heavily opposed by environmentalists. The President argues that oil from the refuge would dramatically reduce demand for foreign supplies. Critics, noting that the U.S. uses more than 7 billion barrels of oil a year, contend the pool would be quickly exhausted.

Bush opposes the use of government subsidies or tax breaks to spur alternative-energy development, arguing that such government programs don't work, and that, left to itself, the free market will better solve U.S. energy needs. "The President believes economic growth and environmental protection can go hand in hand," says Scott McClellan, a White House spokesman.

Alternative-fuel advocates argue that oil is actually getting favorable treatment, because its price doesn't reflect its environmental harm or the cost of protecting oil interests abroad--as in the Middle East.

Congress too appears to have little enthusiasm for changing government policies to reduce oil dependence. A bill introduced recently by Senators John McCain (R-Ariz.) and Joe Lieberman (D-Conn.) would create economic incentives for auto manufacturers to improve fuel efficiency. But it faces opposition in the Senate and is currently given little chance of passage.

TURNING FROM OIL TO WIND AND SUN

But alternative fuels still hold promise. Despite the lack of government support, U.S. power companies see so much promise in wind power that it is the fastest growing alternative-energy source, leaping 66 percent from 2001 to 2002. TXU, a Dallas-based power company, is already generating enough electricity at a wind farm--a duster of windmills on the Texas prairie--to run the energy-hungry air conditioners of about 192,000 homes a day.

As for solar power, 37 states have adopted "net metering," which allows homeowners with solar panels to bank excess electricity on their utility company's grid for later withdrawal. The practice is encouraging a surge in home solar-power generation.

But the majority of U.S. energy is used in transportation. The average 42-gallon barrel of crude oil yields about 19 gallons of gasoline, among other things. The nation currently consumes more than 13 million gallons of gasoline every day.

Doubling new-vehicle efficiency to 40 mpg, from the current average of 20.8 mpg for passenger vehicles in the U.S., could cut crude oil demand by 2 million barrels a day by 2012, environmentalists say. But even such a leap in fuel efficiency would still leave the U.S. dependent on Mideast oil.

FILL IT UP? YES, WITH HYDROGEN

Some of the most promising alternatives are fuel-cell vehicles powered by hydrogen, the most abundant element in the universe. Honda, Toyota, and Mercedes-Benz have test cars on the road now. Unlike gasoline-powered cars, which produce a huge array of pollutants, the hydrogen cars' byproduct is water.

General Motors' entry is the Hy-wire, a radical design that has no engine, transmission, or gas tank. Larry Burs, GM's vice president for research and development and planning, believes it Could be ready for consumers by 2010, and in wide use by 2020. But he faces skepticism even within GM. "I just can't help remaining skeptical," says Bob Lutz, the vice chairman of GM, pointing out that other "miracle" engines have come and gone over the years.

The hydrogen cars would require some changes, such as new equipment at filling stations, and a distribution system to keep the stations supplied. But Bums says the time is right for the largest change in vehicle design in the history of cars. "This can be a better car all around," he says. "At this point, it's a business issue. If we don't invent it, somebody else will."

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