What Soft Landing?The yo-yoing stock markets of 2000 may suggest otherwise, but a prominent economic forecaster says this year may end up as the most buoyant Buoyant
The term used to describe a commodities market where the prices generally rise with ease when there are considerable signals of strength.
These types of markets can be very volatile as the prices are rapid to rise and fall with investor sentiment. he's seen in 30 years of predicting productivity and growth. Dr. James F. Smith at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill is a public, coeducational, research university located in Chapel Hill, North Carolina, United States. Also known as The University of North Carolina, Carolina, North Carolina, or simply UNC -- deemed the nation's most accurate economic forecaster in three of the past five years by The Wall Street Journal -- says that the near-term outlook is "marvelous."
"All of us, even the most wildly optimistic op·ti·mist
1. One who usually expects a favorable outcome.
2. A believer in philosophical optimism.
op , have had to increase our forecasts of real GDP Real GDP
This inflation-adjusted measure that reflects the value of all goods and services produced in a given year, expressed in base-year prices. Often referred to as "constant-price", "inflation-corrected" GDP or "constant dollar GDP". (gross domestic product) growth several times, and are now doing it again," he said in late summer. "This has been driven by the wonderful gains in productivity, which seem likely to persist." GDP GDP (guanosine diphosphate): see guanine. growth should surpass 5 percent this year, Smith says, the highest since 1984.
Smith zeroes in on a couple of intriguing trends: productivity gains and higher education higher education
Study beyond the level of secondary education. Institutions of higher education include not only colleges and universities but also professional schools in such fields as law, theology, medicine, business, music, and art. . Productivity, which was largely stagnant in the years 1973-1991, rose at a 1.4 percent annual clip in the next five years and has been running at double that rate since then. While he says the cause is a mystery -- although many observers cite high-tech gains, especially the surge of the Internet -- Smith says that if the current 2.9 percent annual productivity gain can be maintained, long-term sustainable economic growth in the U.S. could stay at 4 percent.
As for education, he notes that the percentage of high school graduates going to college, 67 percent, is the highest ever. That bodes well for the economy and for economic spending, since college grads consistently earn more than high school graduates and have a lower unemployment rate.