What If USA Leaves.

By invading Iraq without a plan and with no understanding of the consequences, the Bush team has created a bind for itself and for the Middle East. In an article published on April 9 by Gulf News, James J. Zogby wrote: "Significant majorities of Iraqis and Americans now want the US forces to leave that country, arguing that the American presence provokes the insurgency. Countering this, however, is a sense that should the US forces leave Iraq prematurely, the country could disintegrate into a more deadly civil war which could spill over into the broader region. This, it is argued, would further embolden Iran, which is already seen as the major beneficiary of the war, leaving the entire Gulf region open to the ambitions of the Islamic republic".

These concerns appear to be shared in the Arab world as well. A recent poll in Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the UAE, Jordan and Lebanon found hostility to the US and Iranian roles in Iraq. The poll, done by Zogby International for the Arab-American Institute, surveyed 3,400 people in the five countries - all allies of the US. In each of the five countries, big majorities gave negative ratings to the roles played by the US in Iraq, ranging from 96% negative in Jordan and 83% negative in Egypt to 68% negative in Saudi Arabia. Iran fared no better - 78% of Saudis and more than two-thirds of Jordanians, Emiratis, Lebanese and Egyptians gave Iran's role in Iraq a negative rating.

When asked what worried them the most about Iraq, almost 50% in each of the five countries pointed to the prospect of Iraq disintegrating into three parts or into a civil war which would spill over into the broader region. The next greatest concern among most of those surveyed was the prospect of a permanent US occupation of Iraq. This view was felt by 47% in Jordan, 38% in Egypt and a quarter of Saudis.

Given this, what should the US do? About three quarters of Egyptians and Jordanians say "withdraw immediately", a view shared by a 40% plurality in all the other countries.

US pursuance of diplomatic options and work for unity in Iraq were the preferred options in Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Lebanon. There was no major support for the current "surge" policy advocated by the Bush Administration in any of the five countries in the survey.

What was significant in those findings, Zogby said, was not only the degree to which the failure of the US approach in Iraq, but also the degree to which Arab opinion was "cognizant of the potential dangers down the road: namely, a greater role for Iran and an Iraqi civil war". This is most acute in those countries which are allies of the US and rely in part on US security co-operation.

What was so troubling, Zogby added, was that the Bush team strode along as if unaware of the damage, not only in Iraq, but to long-standing US relations in the region. Given all of this, he said, "the better course of action is that proposed by the Iraq Study Group", adding: "While many thought that the Iraq Study Group had been forgotten, it was given new life...in legislation passed by the US House of Representatives".

Most press accounts focused only on the date for withdrawal of US troops set by the House bill. But an amendment added to that introduced by Congressman James Moran called on the administration "to pursue the diplomatic strategy...recommended by the Iraq Study Group..." - which calls on the US to pursue a comprehensive "New Diplomatic Offensive" to build an international consensus and support structure for stability in Iraq and the surrounding region. The "New Diplomatic Offensive" is to engage all of Iraq's neighbours and address all the "key issues" in the Middle East, including not just the situation in Iraq, but also in Lebanon, Syria and Iran, as well as the Israel-Palestinian conflict.

Pentagon Extends Army Tour: Defence Secretary Gates on April 11 said the Pentagon was extending the tours of soldiers in Iraq and Afghanistan to 15 months. The new policy extends tours for soldiers in the US Central Command (CentCom) arena, which includes Iraq and Afghanistan, from the current goal of 12 months. It guarantees that soldiers spend one year out of the war zone before any redeployment. Gates said: "Without this...we would have had to deploy five army active duty brigades sooner than the 12-month at home goal. I believe it is fairer to all soldiers that all share the burden equally".

The growing strain on the US military has already forced the Pentagon to extend the tours of some units beyond 12 months. Gates said the new policy would help provide predictability, adding: "we owe our troops as much advance notice as possible and clarity on what they and their families can expect". He dismissed suggestions that the move signalled the US army was "broken", but said there was "no question" that US forces had been stretched because of the conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan.

The new policy comes as the White House and Congress spar over legislation to fund the wars. While the Democratically controlled House and Senate have passed bills which call for US troops to leave Iraq in 2008, President Bush has threatened to veto any legislation that includes "arbitrary" timelines. Democrats on April 11 pounced on the Pentagon decision to extend army tours as evidence that Bush had pursued a failed policy in Iraq. The Democratic Chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, Carl Levin, said: "Secretary Gates's announcement today is the foreseeable consequence of three years of a flawed strategy. The army has attempted in vain to stabilise a rotational scheme for an unstable and open-ended strategy. Once again the failures of this administration are being underwritten by our troops; the cost of this will fall on the backs of the brave men and women already serving in harm's way, and their families".

Ali Allawi On US Mistakes & Options: US- and UK-educated Ali al-Allawi, a cousin of former PM Iyad Allawi, says the US must make a strategic about-face if it is to salvage the situation in Iraq. Allawi, a minister in Iraq's transitional government, says US efforts to create a democracy in his country have been disastrous, but that the US remained the only power capable of rectifying the situation.

In his newly published book, "The Occupation of Iraq", Allawi slams the "monumental ignorance" of those in the US who advocated and planned the 2003 invasion. Critical mistakes were made after Saddam's ouster, such as disbanding Iraq's army. He criticised the "rank amateurism and swaggering arrogance" of the US-led Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA) which governed Iraq after the invasion. Speaking at Washington's National Press Club on April 10, Allawi said the post-invasion years had been a grave disappointment, adding: "After the invasion of Iraq, there was a set of policy decisions that were not only inappropriate and inexplicable, but in the context were incoherent. And this is really quite surprising, because we know the abilities and capabilities of the United States. We know what the United States did in similar contexts where it took on the responsibility of rebuilding states or entire continents".

Allawi said the state the US helped create was "dysfunctional", more corrupt and less competent today than it was under Saddam. He said mismanagement, corruption and bloodshed of the past four years had destroyed another dream of the invasion's backers: That Iraq would emerge as a democratic, reformist model for the Middle East and the Islamic world. He said: "I don't think Iraq today would serve as a model for anything. There is no way anybody sees the experience of the last four years as positive".

Despite the poor US track record, he said: "I do not think we should write off the United States simply because the last four years have been a failed engagement in Iraq. It is the only country that has the means and resources to be able to effect real change on the ground. Frankly, I think any other country would have sunk a long time ago, given the stresses inside the country". Allawi, who has held positions with the World Bank, said the US should lead an international conference on Iraq in which all Iraqi factions and all of Iraq's neighbours come together to map out a way forward for Iraq and the region as a whole.

The Bush administration has admitted that critical mistakes were made after the invasion and the toppling of Saddam. But US officials say corrective steps have been taken over the years, and the mission in Iraq is under constant review to improve operations and adjust to changing conditions on the ground.