What's on your plate: to "take" or "not to take".

On which counts do you want your hitters to take a pitch? 3-0? 3-1? 0-0? Coaches and fans are always debating such questions. At Stanford, we have studied them intensely over the past four years and have uncovered some interesting answers.

Let's examine a particular count, say, the 3-0 count. Normally you have the hitter taking, but there's more to it than the obvious.

If the hitter takes, he will either walk or go 3-1.

If he is given the green light, he will either walk, go 3-1, or put the ball in play.

The only way that the green light can be better than the take depends on whether putting the ball in play on 3-0 is better than going 3-1.

The answer depends, to a large degree, on what you hope to achieve. We analyzed three strategies: (1) maximizing the chance of reaching base, (2) maximizing the average number of bases obtained, and (3) maximizing the chance of getting a hit.

Which strategy to follow will depend on the current game situation. For example, early in the game you will probably want to obtain as many bases as possible. Late in the game, down by multiple runs, you will need base runners and therefore have to maximize the chance of reaching base.

Once you get runners in scoring position, your strategy will shift to driving them in--or maximizing the chances of getting a hit. Let us investigate the benefit of taking strikes on the three aforementioned strategies.

MAXIMIZING THE CHANCE OF REACHING BASE:

To analyze this strategy, we used a commercial pitch/hit charting software program to capture over 76,000 pitches and 20,000 plate appearances at Stanford between 1998 and 2001.

Over these four seasons, 64% of the batters with a 3-1 count eventually reached base. But only 38% of the batters who put the ball into play on a 3-0 count reached base - 33% via a hit and 5% via an error.

That means that as soon as the batter put the ball into play on 3-0, he reduced his chances of reaching base by 26% (as compared to taking a strike)!

[ILLUSTRATION OMITTED]

Conclusion: Though you are very likely to get a pitch to hit on 3-0, you should still take.

This result corresponds well with the conventional wisdom in baseball. How about other counts? Table 1 breaks down the benefit of taking strikes for every count.

As you can see, 2-0 and 3-1 are the only other counts where taking a strike increases your chance of getting on base. Taking a strike on 2-0 increases the chance of reaching base by 5%, while taking a strike on 3-1 increases the chance of reaching base by 9%.

These numbers represent averages over four seasons and many different situations. The strategies may be different with particular hitters and pitchers, but, given the large advantage to be gained by taking, it is hard to envision many situations where swinging away on 3-0 is warranted, if you are trying to maximize the chance of reaching base.

How large of an impact might you hope to gain by following this strategy? Over the 1998-2001 time frame, 6.8 plate appearances occurred on the 2-0 count per game. A 5% increase in the chance of reaching base on this count translates into 0.34 additional base runners per game. The increases on 3-0 and 3-1 would be 0.63 and 0.40 base runners per game, respectively, bringing the total increase to 1.4. Good decision making can clearly affect team performance.

Before moving on, let's check at least two other interesting aspects of Table 1.

First, notice that the chance of reaching base by putting the ball in play decreases only slightly as strikes are thrown. Batters are usually less likely to reach base by putting the ball in play with two strikes. But the change is not great. A good rule of thumb is that about a third of all batters who put the ball in play get a hit. An additional 4% reach via an error, bringing the total to 37%.

As a coach, you should emphasize the rewards for making contact with two strikes! The reason that taking 2-0, 3-0, and 3-1 makes sense is that even if you take a strike in these counts, you will still have greater than a 37% chance of eventually reaching base.

Second, notice that taking a strike on 0-0 decreases your chance of reaching base by an average of 5%. This is the second lowest decrease for the non-take counts (all counts except 2-0, 3-0 and 3-1).

In general, it is not wise to take a first-pitch strike. However, there may be situations (e.g., facing a particular pitcher with below-average control), where the slight difference on 0-0 may be overcome and taking an initial strike may prove valuable.

MAXIMIZING THE AVERAGE NUMBER OF BASES OBTAINED:

Does the strategy of taking 2-0, 3-0, and 3-1 hold up when we factor in how productive each hit is in each count? Let us reconsider the conclusions when we check the average number of bases obtained on each count, thus giving more weight to doubles, triples, and home runs.

TABLE 2 breaks down the benefit of taking strikes, measured by the impact on obtaining bases.

Again, we see that our conclusion holds. Taking 2-0, 3-0, and 3-1 increases the average number of bases obtained. The increase in the average bases obtained by taking a strike on these counts translates into about 1.1 extra bases per game. That is an important increase and one that could give you a competitive edge.

Also notice that the average number of bases obtained by putting the ball in play decreases as strikes are thrown. The average for 0, 1, and 2 strikes is 0.49, 0.47, and 0.45, respectively. (1) This corresponds well with what we would expect. Putting the ball in play when the batter is in a defensive position results in fewer bases, but the effect is not great.

MAXIMIZING THE CHANCE OF GETTING A HIT:

In certain situations (e.g., runners in scoring position with two outs), you may be trying to get a hit and are not concerned with simply reaching base or maximizing the number of bases obtained. Should you take pitches in this case?

For the answers, we have to look at the chance of eventually getting a hit for each count compared to getting a hit by putting the ball in play.

Table 3 displays these results.

If all you need is a hit, you should not take on any counts--especially 3-0 and 3-1 (and of course, the two strike counts). Taking a strike on 2-0, 3-0, and 3-1 decreases the chance of getting a hit by 15%, 17%, and 20% respectively. Putting the ball in play always increases the chance of getting a hit, even though it may lower the chance of reaching base or the average number of bases obtained, because it takes away the possibility of the walk.

To highlight a point made earlier, notice that batters have almost a 33% chance of getting a hit if they put the ball in play with two strikes. Your hitters have to make contact with two strikes.

CONCLUSION:

By taking 2-0, 3-0, and 3-1, the team at bat can increase its chances of reaching base and improving the average number of bases it obtains.

The gains from taking on 3-0 are quite large--over 26% increase in the probability of reaching base and 0.20 additional bases, while the gains from taking on 2-0 and 3-1 counts are modest but still material. This strategy might produce more than one additional base runner per game, as compared to swinging away.

Whenever you need a hit, however, taking pitches is never a good strategy. In fact, 3-0 is among the worst counts to take whenever you feel you need a hit, especially when you have nearly a 60% chance of getting a fastball in the strike zone.

TABLE 1:

Decision Table for Taking a Strike Based on Reaching Base

CURRENT  A. Probability of     B. Probability of  DIFFERENCE  TAKE?
 COUNT   Eventually Reaching   Reaching Base by
         Base by Taking        Putting Ball
         Strike                in Play

  0-0    32% (new count: 0-1)    37%                  -5%       No
  0-1    24% (0-2)               38%                 -14%       No
  0-2    0% (K)                  36%                 -36%       No
  1-0    35% (1-1)               38%                  -3%       No
  1-1    25% (1-2)               36%                 -11%       No
  1-2    0% (K)                  36%                 -36%       No
  2-0    44% (2-1)               39%                  +5%       Yes
  2-1    31% (2-2)               37%                  -6%       No
  2-2    0% (K)                  35%                 -35%       No
  3-0    64% (3-1)               38%                 +26%       Yes
  3-1    48% (3-2)               39%                  +9%       Yes
  3-2    0% (K)                  36%                 -36%       No

TABLE 2:

Decision Table for Taking a Strike Based on Average Bases Obtained

CURRENT  C. Average Bases       D. Average Bases  DIFFERENCE  TAKE?
 COUNT   Eventually Obtained    Obtained by
         by Taking a Strike     Putting Ball
                                in Play

  0-0    0.43 (new count: 0-1)      0.47             -0.04      No
  0-1    0.32 (0-2)                 0.47             -0.15      No
  0-2    0.00 (K)                   0.44             -0.44      No
  1-0    0.46 (1-1)                 0.50             -0.04      No
  1-1    0.33 (1-2)                 0.46             -0.13      No
  1-2    0.00 (K)                   0.43             -0.43      No
  2-0    0.56 (2-1)                 0.52             +0.04      Yes
  2-1    0.40 (2-2)                 0.47             -0.07      No
  2-2    0.00 (K)                   0.44             -0.44      No
  3-0    0.73 (3-1)                 0.53             +0.20      Yes
  3-1    0.58 (3-2)                 0.50             +0.08      Yes
  3-2    0.00 (K)                   0.47             -0.47      No

TABLE 3:

Decision Table for Taking a Strike Based on Getting a Hit

CURRENT  E. Probability of      F. Probability   DIFFERENCE  TAKE?
 COUNT   Eventually Getting     of Getting Hit
         Hit by Taking          by Putting Ball
         Strike                 in Play

  0-0    0.24 (new count: 0-1)      0.34           -0.10     No
  0-1    0.18 (0-2)                 0.34           -0.16     No
  0-2    0.00 (K)                   0.33           -0.33     No
  1-0    0.23 (1-1)                 0.36           -0.13     No
  1-1    0.18 (1-2)                 0.33           -0.15     No
  1-2    0.00 (K)                   0.31           -0.31     No
  2-0    0.22 (2-1)                 0.37           -0.15     No
  2-1    0.18 (2-2)                 0.33           -0.15     No
  2-2    0.00 (K)                   0.32           -0.32     No
  3-0    0.16 (3-1)                 0.33           -0.17     No
  3-1    0.16 (3-2)                 0.36           -0.20     No
  3-2    0.00 (K)                   0.34           -0.34     No

BY J. ERIC BICKEL (PH.D.),

Competitive Edge Decision Systems,

The Woodlands, TX and

DEAN STOTZ,

Asst. Baseball Coach, Stanford