Well-paying jobs likely to be scarce, study finds.

Byline: JOE HARWOOD The Register-Guard

The heady days of rising wages and bountiful job opportunities enjoyed by many Oregonians in the 1990s aren't likely to return any time soon, the Oregon Center for Public Policy says.

The Silverton-based nonprofit research group released a study Tuesday examining impacts that the state's changing economy has had, and will have, on Oregon workers.

The study found that many of the gains made by workers in the tight job markets of the mid- and late 1990s were wiped out when mass layoffs and a recession swamped Oregon and the rest of the nation last year. With a jobless rate that led the nation for parts of 2001 and 2002, Oregon found wage hikes disappearing as competition among workers for scant jobs increased.

After rising for more than a decade, for example, average annual earnings in Oregon declined in 2001, falling 1.5 percent to $33,187, according to the study.

Most of the gains in real wages were limited to the Portland area.

While the state has emerged from recession, employment growth remains weak and isn't likely to rise higher than 2 percent a year until the end of 2003, according to the study, which gleaned its data from multiple federal and state sources.

And a large portion of Oregon's future job growth will be dominated by typically low-wage jobs in the service and retail sectors, the study said, making another boom unlikely in the near future. The boom of the 1990s was fired by the high-tech industry, which pays relatively well.

The study found that the high-tech, construction and business services sectors that accounted for the bulk of the state's job growth over the past decade were the hardest hit when the economy began sputtering. Those sectors have been slow to recover.

Many of the workers who lost their jobs last year ended up finding new work that offered lower wages and fewer benefits.

"With high unemployment, even those workers who held onto their jobs cannot expect the regular raises seen in the late 1990s, the study said.

As those low-paying jobs grow, the study predicts, Oregon will see continued declines in higher-paying manufacturing jobs and a widening chasm between rich and poor.

In exploring Oregon's boom-and-bust economy - which has featured recessions of varying depths about once every 10 years over the past three decades - the study offered three remedies to help ease the pain felt by workers in a recession:

Investing more resources in education and job training in order to create a more diverse array of high-paying jobs.

Raising the minimum wage. A measure to do that is on the current ballot.

More unionization in the work force so employees can collectively bargain for higher wages.

"Education is so patently obvious," said Jeff Thompson, an economist for the group and co-author of the study. "It's one of the policies that, despite having near unanimity among everybody, seems to be hobbled as a practical response."

Oregon schools, from elementary to college, have suffered deep cuts in the past two years as state funding has declined.

The study also takes a shot at local and state politicians of both major parties who promise to create high-wage jobs in Oregon if they are elected.

"Nothing state or local government could do would reverse the national and international trends that drove Oregon into recession," the study said, adding that proposals to create jobs by offering tax cuts or reducing regulations do not address the cumulative effects of declining demand and overproduction that lead to recession.

Thompson noted that state and local officials can maintain an infrastructure - such as a well-funded education system - friendly to entrepreneurs that could indirectly lead to job creation.

For more information, visit the center's Web site, www.ocpp.org.