Weapons of Mass Destruction.

WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION by Robert Hutchinson

Cassell (Allen & Unwin): London, 2003-2004, pages 283 and index, $24.95

When the United States' armed forces entered Iraq in 2003 no weapons of mass destruction were found (they having been hidden or destroyed). The failure to find these weapons had two unfortunate consequences. On the one hand the United States was criticised (although it had relied on extensive intelligence information, from its own sources and from the Mossad in particular). On the other hand the threat posed by weapons of mass destruction appeared to many observers to be less critical than it is in fact.

Robert Hutchinson's Weapons of Mass Destruction is salutary in these circumstances. The imminence of the dangers that he describes are illustrated by the statement, "Within ten years a nuclear warhead will devastate a major city." He concludes "that there seems little reason to be optimistic that terrorist groups have not or will not get their hands on some kind of nuclear material to use as a primitive weapon, or at the least destructive end of the scale, a dirty bomb." This is in addition to the very real possibility of deliberate sabotage of a nuclear facility and the contamination of urban areas. Thus terrorist threats or attempts to damage or penetrate nuclear reactors have been reported in Western Europe, Argentina, Lithuania, South Korea and South Africa. For example, in 1998 Italian police detained criminals attempting to sell 19.9 per cent enriched uranium, apparently stolen from a reactor in the Republic of the Congo.

Mr. Hutchinson notes that in the United States and most (but not all) Western European countries armed guards protect power plants, but that this security has been shown to be inadequate, and that in some other countries (such as Japan) there are no armed guards at all.

An additional cause of concern relates to completed nuclear weapons manufactured by the Soviet Union. Mr. Hutchinson refers to reports of missing nuclear weapons from Russia, including the unresolved mystery of the lost 84 suitcase bombs referred to by Alexander Lebed, one-time national security adviser under Boris Yeltsin, and the two tactical nuclear artillary shells with explosive power in the low-kiliton range that reportedly were sold by criminals to Iran in the early 1990s. (Suitcase bombs are a particular source of concern. Their small size and portability makes them an especially attractive target for terrorist groups, who might wish to transport them to New York, London or Sydney, for example.) In addition there remain reports of 23 low-yield nuclear warheads that reportedly went missing from a storage site in Siberia in March 1992 and a further 12 nuclear artillary shells based with Soviet forces in former East Germany. The K.G.B. is also believed to have held an unspecified number of tactical nuclear weapons, each weighing less than 100 pounds, that were excluded from post-Cold war inventories of Moscow's nuclear arsenal, and a question arises where these weapons are to be found now.

Nuclear weapons are not the only threat. Chemical weapons and biological weapons also are attractive instruments for terrorists, and they also are discussed at length by Mr. Hutchinson. Thus, amongst many other poisons, sarin was discovered in 1938. A colourless and odourless agent, a miniscule droplet is enough to kill a man quickly and in agony. One threat is that terrorists may manufacture and spread poison gas. Another is that they may use high explosives to blow up a toxic chemical plant or supply. In 2002 the U.S. Surgeon-General estimated that as many as 2.4 million people could be killed or injured in a terrorist attack on a toxic chemical plant in a densely populated area.

As Mr. Hutchinson notes, biological weapons present their own opportunities. Smallpox, he notes, had killed an estimated 500 million before it was eradicated. It is effective even in an aerosol form, and small amounts are still retained in protected laboratories from which, however, they might be stolen and replicated in large quantities. Similarly, an aerosol anthrax spray disseminated by aircraft over a densely populated area might affect fifty per cent of the population.

Weapons of Mass Destruction is well-researched and contains extensive information about the use of nuclear, chemical and biological weapons in the past. It is also well-written, so that it can be read easily and with interest. In view of its subject-matter, its purchase is recommended.

R. M. Pearce