Waiting game.

After weeks of gathering hundreds of thousands of signatures, proponents of all the initiatives vying for qualification on a statewide special election ballot are wondering whether there will be a special election after all.

Driving the uncertainty is a provision in the state constitution that makes a decision to pursue a statewide initiative irrevocable once signatures are submitted to county registrars. The generally agreed upon last day to submit signatures to qualify initiatives for a presumed Nov. 8 special election is May 6.

Before that date, initiative backers can choose not to submit signatures if they can strike a deal with Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and the Legislature.

For example, proponents of an initiative to cut the prices of prescription drugs and industry backers of a counter-initiative to bar unions from using dues for political purposes are now in discussions to try to reach a compromise.

The initiative to bar union dues could also figure in another fight between business and labor over a labor and education initiative to allow commercial properties to be taxed at market value instead of reduced rates under Proposition 13--a hit on business estimated at nearly $3 billion.

"All these initiative backers are running up against a very tight timetable and they are realizing that a special election could be risky as well as expensive," said Bob Stern, president of the Center for Governmental Studies.

Schwarzenegger has already pulled back support from an initiative to convert public pensions to 401(k) defined contribution plans. There's also been speculation that he may be willing to deal on his remaining three initiatives, including a redistricting overhaul, merit pay and tenure changes for teachers and stricter state spending limits.

At a recent appearance in Auburn, Schwarzenegger was ambivalent. He said the signatures could be used as a "bargaining chip" in negotiations.

Discussions on a redistricting compromise between Schwarzenegger and Senate president pro-tempore Don Perata, D-Oakland, have been taking place for weeks.

Schwarzenegger has until mid-June to decide whether to call a special election. If he decided against it, then any initiatives that qualify would appear on the next regularly scheduled ballot in June 2006.

Staff reporter Howard Fine can be reached by phone at [phone], ext. 227, or by email at [e-mail].