WWJ: DoCoMo to Grab 3G Lead from KDDI.

Tokyo, Japan, Jan 9, 2006 - (JCN) - DoCoMo have just announced FOMA subscribers surpassed 20 million on 29 December 2005. According to the TCA, they had 18,588,300 FOMA users on 30 November, implying they added 1,422,700 in the month of December to reach the 20 mn mark.

What about KDDI, who have held 3G market lead in Japan ever since they launched CDMA 1X services in March 2002 (DoCoMo opened FOMA in October 2001)?

According to the TCA again, KDDI had 20,184,800 3G users on 30 November 2005, having only added 335,300 in the month of November. This is significantly smaller than DoCoMo's net adds, which have been greater than KDDI's each month since 1H 2004.

Of course, there's no word yet from KDDI on their December 2005 sales (look for a press release sometime in the next couple of business days), but let's assume a best-case scenario and grant them a 50-percent increase in net adds for December and January.

Even then, they will still only have 21.2 mn 3G users at month's end (20.2 mn + 503,000 + 503,000) -- approximately 200,000 fewer than DoCoMo's 21.4 mn.

Thus, sometime in January 2006, Big D will take over 3G market lead. As the quote goes, it's a mathematical certainly (... more or less).

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