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WORLD CELLULAR PHONE, PAGER MARKETS TO TOP $6 BILLION BY 1998, 15 PERCENT CAGR

 WORLD CELLULAR PHONE, PAGER MARKETS TO TOP
 $6 BILLION BY 1998, 15 PERCENT CAGR
 MOUNTAIN VIEW, Calif,. Sept. 10 /PRNewswire/ -- Worldwide sales of cellular phones, pagers and accessories will mushroom from $2.3 billion in 1991 to $6.2 billion in 1998 at a 15.4 percent compound annual growth rate, projects a study just released by Market Intelligence.
 Portable phone sales will explode from $380 million in 1991 to $1.2 billion in 1998, growing at an 18 percent compound annual rate, while mobile phones level off and sales of larger transportable and "bag" phones decline, says the report, "World Cellular & PCN Telephone, Pager & Accessory Markets."
 The popularity of portable phones will overtake larger alternatives as their reception improves across wider coverage areas.
 Overall market revenue growth is projected to accelerate from current 13-15 percent levels through 1994, when it is expected to peak at an estimated 20 percent, before dropping back into the teens. The alphanumeric pager market will grow explosively, although numeric pagers will continue to dominate the market -- growing at a healthy 8 percent CAGR -- while sales of tone-voice and tone-only pagers decline. Alphanumeric growth will be spurred by, among other factors, the increasing availability of message services for news, sports and financial data.
 Sales of wireless phone batteries and accessories will also grow rapidly. As more people rely on cellular phones, many will want to add data devices. Accessory equipment will increase its share of the total market from 35 percent in 1991 to 47 percent by 1998.
 Personal communication network (PCN) terminal equipment will experience the most rapid growth later in the decade, more than quadrupling from an estimated $174 million in worldwide sales in 1994 to $816 million in 1998. PCN equipment will emerge as a significant segment around 1994, and will account for a projected 13 percent of all market revenues by 1998.
 Meanwhile, the currently dominant cellular phone segment will decline from 48 percent of the market in the 1991-1993 period to 31 percent by 1998, while pagers drop from 17 to 9 percent.
 As prices drop, non-business users will account for a growing share of wireless terminal equipment sales, and they will buy increasingly products from consumer electronics stores. More non-business users will also take an interest in portable phones. Meanwhile, manufacturers will work more closely with retailers in areas such as sales promotions and co-op advertising.
 Alliances and joint agreements will continue to strongly influence the market. Joint ventures, partnerships, alliances, and mergers will increase firm stability, allowing companies to share R&D costs and maufacturing facilities, and helping expand businesses outside their home national markets. Users will benefit from lower costs and quicker implementation.
 At the same time, the increasing strength of alliances may be detrimental to smaller firms that won't have the huge resources necessary to remain highly competitive.
 Market Intelligence is an international high-technology research firm specializing in telecommunications. All Market Intelligence reports are based on extensive interviews with marketing and technical experts from selected companies in each market segment. Primary research is validated by thorough analysis of available secondary research. Since 1982, Market Intelligence has emerged as one of the leading publishers of high-technology market research reports.
 Cellular Phone, Pager, and Accessory Equipment Market:
 Revenue Forecasts (World),
 1988-1998
 (In millions of dollars)
 Year Revenue Revenue
 Growth
 (Pct.)
 1988 $1,606.7 ---
 1989 1,783.8 11.0
 1990 2,010.8 12.7
 1991 2,283.4 13.6
 1992 2,620.8 14.8
 1993 3,000.3 14.5
 1994 3,426.4 14.2
 1995 3,875.4 13.1
 1996 4,355.0 12.4
 1997 4,849.5 11.4
 1998 5,409.6 11.6
 Compound annual growth rate (1991-1998): 13.1 percent
 NOTE: All figures are rounded
 Source: Market Intelligence
 Cellular Phone, Pager, Accessory Equipment,
 and PCN Terminal Equipment Market:
 Revenue Forecasts (World),
 1988-1998
 (In millions of dollars)
 Year Revenues Revenue
 Growth
 (Pct.)
 1988 $1,606.7 ---
 1989 1,783.8 11.0
 1990 2,010.8 12.7
 1991 2,283.4 13.6
 1992 2,620.8 14.8
 1993 3,000.3 14.5
 1994 3,600.2 20.0
 1995 4,203.0 16.7
 1996 4,830.4 14.9
 1997 5,494.6 13.7
 1998 6,225.6 13.3
 Compound annual growth rate (1991-1998): 15.4 percent
 NOTE: All figures are rounded
 Source: Market Intelligence
 -0- 9/10/92
 /CONTACT: Amy Arnell of Market Intelligence, 415-961-9000, or 415-961-5042 (fax)/ CO: Market Intelligence ST: California IN: CPR SU:


TB -- SJ001 -- 7945 09/10/92 11:01 EDT
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Date:Sep 10, 1992
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