WIN, PLACE OR SHOW? IT'S TIME, ONCE AGAIN, TO HANDICAP THE OSCARS.

Byline: Glenn Whipp Film Writer

When it comes to predicting this year's Oscar nominations, it pays to take the simple advice offered by Deep Throat (the Watergate source, not the Linda Lovelace movie) and ``follow the money.''

Sure, critics prizes and next week's Golden Globes have some sway. But nothing beats an extravagant marketing campaign as a way of reminding Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences voters just what movies they're supposed to consider important. Paupers need not apply.

So what will be nominated? And, more significantly, what should be nominated and what should be left off the list? Here are a few ideas and suggestions.

Best Picture

Sure things: ``Traffic.''

Likely: ``Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon,'' ``Gladiator.''

Maybe: ``Billy Elliot,'' ``Erin Brockovich,'' ``Chocolat.''

Long shots: ``Wonder Boys,'' ``Quills,'' ``Almost Famous,'' ``Cast Away,'' ``Chicken Run,'' ``Thirteen Days,'' ``Sunshine.''

Should be nominated, but likely won't: ``Quills.'' If the academy could honor Hannibal ``The Cannibal'' Lecter, why not the Marquis de Sade?

Likely to be nominated, but probably shouldn't: ``Billy Elliot.'' Feel-good film tries just a little too hard to make you feel good. But, boy, that kid could sure dance!

Analysis: The sensational ``Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon'' should not only be nominated, but should win the Oscar. But it's not that simple. No foreign movie has ever won Best Picture; few are even nominated. But ``Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon'' has captured filmgoers' imaginations in a way few movies manage to do. Like, say, ``Star Wars,'' it's a genuine cinematic spectacle, albeit one in Mandarin Chinese.

One additional note: If Miramax, through marketing muscle, manages to pull off a nomination for its trifle ``Chocolat,'' they should just cancel next year's Oscar ceremony and give the prizes to whoever spends the most money. More insubstantial movies have been nominated for Best Picture, but you'd be hard-pressed to find one.

Predicted nominees: ``Traffic,'' ``Billy Elliot,'' ``Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon,'' ``Gladiator,'' ``Erin Brockovich.''

Best Actor

Sure thing: Tom Hanks, ``Cast Away.''

Likely: Russell Crowe, ``Gladiator''; Geoffrey Rush, ``Quills''; Michael Douglas, ``Wonder Boys.''

Maybe: Javier Bardem, ``Before Night Falls,'' Ed Harris, ``Pollack.''

Long shots: Jamie Bell, ``Billy Elliot''; Denzel Washington, ``Remember the Titans,'' Mark Ruffalo, ``You Can Count on Me''; Sean Connery, ``Finding Forrester''; Ralph Fiennes, ``Sunshine.''

Should be nominated, but likely won't: Mel Gibson delivered an expert comic turn in ``What Women Want,'' earning favorable comparisons with cinema's greatest leading man, Cary Grant. But Grant never won an Academy Award (aside from an honorary one), and Gibson will have to wait until his next seething dramatic role to have a chance to add to Oscars he won for directing and producing ``Braveheart.''

Likely to be nominated, but probably shouldn't: Douglas. Critics, wanna- be academicians that they are, couldn't heap enough praise on ``Wonder Boys.'' The public never understood what the fuss was about, and rightly so.

Analysis: There's only one slot up for grabs, and it should go to Bardem, who gives the year's most transcendent turn in ``Before Night Falls.'' Bardem deserves to win it all, and, with a little luck and momentum in this wide-open category, he just might pull off the upset.

Predicted nominees: Hanks, Crowe, Rush, Douglas, Bardem.

Best Actress

Sure things: Julia Roberts, ``Erin Brockovich''; Laura Linney, ``You Can Count on Me.''

Likely: Ellen Burstyn, ``Requiem for a Dream.''

Maybe: Juliette Binoche, ``Chocolat''; Joan Allen, ``The Contender.''

Long shots: Bjork, ``Dancer in the Dark''; Michelle Yeoh, ``Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon''; Gillian Anderson, ``The House of Mirth''; Cate Blanchett, ``The Gift''; Renee Zellweger, ``Nurse Betty.''

Should be nominated, but likely won't: Bjork. After delivering her gut-wrenching performance in ``Dancer in the Dark,'' the Icelandic pop star said she would give up acting. If so, she picked an incredible way to debut and bow out.

Likely to be nominated, but probably shouldn't: Binoche. Certainly she helps make ``Chocolat'' palatable, but the movie - and Binoche's performance - is dulled by its pervasive predictability.

Analysis: This is Roberts' award to lose. Think about it: If film critics - long her most vocal detractors - are giving Roberts prizes, the academy will be more than happy to follow suit.

Predicted nominees: Roberts, Linney, Burstyn, Binoche, Allen.

Best Supporting Actor

Sure things: Willem Dafoe, ``Shadow of the Vampire''; Benicio Del Toro, ``Traffic.''

Likely: Albert Finney, ``Erin Brockovich''; Joaquin Phoenix, ``Gladiator.''

Maybe: Jeff Bridges, ``The Contender''; Bruce Greenwood, ``Thirteen Days.''

Long shots: Fred Willard, ``Best in Show''; Michael Caine, ``Quills''; Michael Douglas, ``Traffic''; Don Cheadle, ``Traffic.''

Should be nominated, but likely won't: Willard. The veteran character actor put on a clinic in comic timing and improvisation in ``Best in Show'' as the stupendously ignorant Buck Laughlin, the screen's most colorful commentator in years. (Example: Buck postulates that the champion bloodhound's chances might increase if he wore a little Sherlock Holmes hat and carried a pipe in his mouth.)

Likely to be nominated, but probably shouldn't: No choice. All of the likely nominees did uniformly strong work.

Analysis: There's only one slot open here. Early momentum had it going to Bridges, but the academy might want to tip its hat to ``Thirteen Days'' and Greenwood's powerful work. But it's a moot point anyway since the category is a two-actor race between Dafoe and Del Toro.

Predicted nominees: Dafoe, Del Toro, Finney, Phoenix, Greenwood.

Best Supporting Actress

Sure things: Frances McDormand, ``Almost Famous''; Julie Waters, ``Billy Elliot.''

Likely: Judi Dench, ``Chocolat.''

Maybe: Kate Hudson, ``Almost Famous''; Catherine Zeta-Jones, ``Traffic''; Marcia Gay Harden, ``Pollack.''

Long shots: Zhang Ziyi, ``Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon''; Kate Winslet, ``Quills''; Laura Linney, ``The House of Mirth''; Elaine May, ``Small Time Crooks.''

Should be nominated, but likely won't: Zhang soars (literally and figuratively) in an electrifying film debut. Close second: Elaine May. Had Woody Allen's low-key charmer ``Small Time Crooks'' been released later in the year, everyone would be talking about May's scene-stealing turn as the movie's delightful dimwit.

Likely to be nominated, but probably shouldn't: Dench proves commanding as always, but she's reduced to playing a cinematic cliche in ``Chocolat.''

Analysis: A thin category unless voters take the initiative to think outside the box and reward Zhang for her commanding, complex performance.

Predicted nominees: McDormand, Walters, Dench, Hudson, Zeta-Jones.

Best Director

Sure things: Steven Soderbergh, ``Traffic''; Ang Lee, ``Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon.''

Likely: Ridley Scott, ``Gladiator''; Steven Soderbergh, ``Erin Brockovich.''

Maybe: Robert Zemeckis, ``Cast Away''; Lasse Halstrom, ``Chocolat.''

Long shots: Steven Daldry, ``Billy Elliot''; Curtis Hanson, ``Wonder Boys''; Cameron Crowe, ``Almost Famous''; Phillip Kaufman, ``Quills.''

Should be nominated, but likely won't: Lars von Trier for reinventing the musical with the dazzling ``Dancer in the Dark.''

Likely to be nominated, but probably shouldn't: Soderbergh for ``Erin Brockovich.'' Nice film, but noteworthy mostly for Roberts' star turn and cleavage.

Analysis: Lost in all the talk about Soderbergh and his two movies is the fact that Zemeckis made two films this year, too (``Cast Away'' and ``What Lies Beneath''), that were just as good, if not better, than Soderbergh's. But Soderbergh is this year's darling. The only thing working against him is that he's competing against himself, which, hopefully, when it comes time to hand out the prize, will mean that Ang Lee will win.

Predicted nominees: Soderbergh (for ``Traffic'' and ``Erin Brockovich''), Lee, Scott and Zemeckis.

CAPTION(S):

6 photos

Photo:

(1) ``TRAFFIC''

(2) HANKS

(3) ROBERTS

(4) DAFOE

(5) McDORMAND

(6) LEE