WILL THE HOLIDAY BOX OFFICE ROAR?

Byline: Greg Hernandez Staff Writer

Hollywood won't be looking to ``King Kong'' or ``Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire'' to rescue it from a lackluster year at the box office. But blockbuster grosses from those and other big titles would go a long way toward helping the movie industry end 2005 with some badly needed momentum.

Through last Sunday, domestic grosses for the year stood at $7.3 billion, down 6.1 percent from a year ago while overall attendance is lagging behind by 8 percent.

Brandon Gray, president of Box Office Mojo, said the next few months are an opportunity ``to gain back some self-respect.''

``Hollywood essentially sat this year out by not releasing many appealing movies,'' Gray said Thursday. ``Overall, they just dropped the ball. We're in real trouble if 'Harry Potter' can't do more than $200 million.''

The first of the big holiday guns will begin hitting theaters today with the wide releases of Disney's G-animated film ``Chicken Little'' and Sony Pictures Entertainment's military drama ``Jarhead.'' They will be followed in subsequent weeks by such highly anticipated and heavily marketed titles as Sony's ``Zathura,'' Warner Bros.' ``Potter,'' Universal Pictures' ``Kong,'' and Disney's ``The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe.''

While this year's crop of films has so far been unable to match the totals from 2004 spring and summer smashes ``Shrek 2,'' ``Spider-Man 2'' and ``The Passion of the Christ,'' the holiday season slate should have an easier time measuring up since ``The Incredibles'' and ``Meet the Fockers'' were the only movies released during this period last year to earn more than $200 million domestically.

``We didn't have a 'Harry Potter' or 'Lord of the Rings' last year so we might see box office sales increase over 2004 during the final six weeks of the year,'' said Gitesh Pandya, editor of BoxOfficeGuru.com. ``The big hope is on 'King Kong.' Obviously, it won't make money on the scale of 'Lord of the Rings' but it will certainly tap into the vast audience of fans of ('Rings' director) Peter Jackson, fans of the original 'King Kong' film and action-movie fans in general.''

Movie fans have proved themselves to be far choosier this year than at any time in recent memory. While they turned out in droves earlier this year for ``Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith'' and made ``War of the Worlds,'' ``Charlie and the Chocolate Factory,'' ``Wedding Crashers'' and ``Batman Begins'' $200 million-plus grossing hits, dismal openings were all too common for too many other big-budget pictures.

If the rest of the year were to maintain the current sluggish pace without a significant holiday boost, the movie industry's year-end total would be approximately $8.8 billion, the biggest year-to-year drop since 1991. In 2004, the year-end total was $9.4 billion.

``There's a lot of ground to make up in a short amount of time,'' said box office analyst Paul Dergarabedian, president of Exhibitor Relations Co. ``We don't want it to be a case of too little, too late. But it may be a year that we end up writing off and say, We don't want to do THAT again.''

The movie industry is currently enjoying a rare breakout hit with the horror film ``Saw II,'' which had a $31.7 million opening last weekend, resulting in a rare weekend where 2005 grosses outdistanced the totals for the same weekend in 2004.

At one point, box office weekend totals fell behind 2004's for a record 19 consecutive weeks. Since that streak was snapped in mid-July, ``up'' weekends have been few and far between. While some movies have opened strong, the fall season's only real hit has been Jodie Foster's ``Flightplan,'' which had taken in $81.3 million as of Sunday.

Other high-profile movies opening wide in the coming weeks include Paramount Pictures' ``Get Rich or Die Tryin,'' 20th Century Fox's ``Walk the Line'' starring Joaquin Phoenix and Reese Witherspoon as Johnny and June Carter Cash, and New Line Cinema's comedy ``Just Friends.''

Paramount also has on tap a remake of the 1968 Lucille Ball-Henry Fonda film ``Yours, Mine and Ours'' starring Dennis Quaid and Rene Russo while Fox's ``The Family Stone'' featuring Diane Keaton and Sarah Jessica Parker opens on Dec. 16.

Jennifer Anniston headlines two films coming out within five weeks of each other. The suspense-thriller ``Derailed'' from Weinstein Co. co-starring Clive Owen will hit theaters Nov. 11 while the Warner Bros. romantic comedy ``Rumor Has It'' will bow on Christmas Day. ``Rumor'' also stars Kevin Costner, Mark Ruffalo and Shirley MacLaine.''

``This holiday season is certainly a test for Jennifer Anniston at the box office since she's not paired with Ben Stiller ('Along Came Polly') or Jim Carrey ('Bruce Almighty'),'' said Gray.

Box office stalwart Carrey will attempt to add to his considerable list of blockbuster hits with the Christmas Day release ``Fun With Dick and Jane,'' Sony's update of the 1977 hit comedy that starred Jane Fonda and George Segal.

While Carrey has hit big with such films as ``Bruce Almighty,'' ``Liar, Liar,'' ``Dr. Seuss' How the Grinch Stole Christmas,'' ``Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events'' and the Ace Ventura movies, he has misfired occasionally as he did with ``The Majestic'' and ``Man on the Moon.''

``He's a great name to have in your film but a lot will depend on the marketing,'' said Pandya. ``He has done good work outside his mainstream comedies but oftentimes they don't work at the box office.''

One movie Pandya is confident will be a hit is Fox's ``Cheaper by the Dozen 2,'' the sequel to the 2003 family comedy smash that re-teams Steve Martin, Bonnie Hunt and most members of the original cast.

``It's the right film at the right time,'' Pandya said. ``The first film did well and a year ago, 'Meet the Fockers' did well. It's another big comedy and that is very appealing to a broad audience.''

Greg Hernandez, [phone]

greg.hernandez(at)dailynews.com

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(1 -- 2 -- color) The holiday movie season could be a chance for Hollywood to end a lackluster year at the box office with some much-needed momentum. ``King Kong,'' ``Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire'' and ``The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe'' are among the most highly anticipated titles.