WILL LIGHTNING STRIKE TWICE FOR 'POTTER'? SEQUEL OPENS TO HIGH HOPES.

Byline: Greg Hernandez Staff Writer

It's been a year since ``Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone'' cast a spell over moviegoers, setting several box office records on its way to becoming the highest-grossing movie released in 2001.

So what can the boy wizard do for an encore?

As Warner Bros. releases ``Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets'' - the second film based on the series of books by J.K. Rowling - the film industry will be watching closely to see if ``Chamber'' can approach the massive popularity of last year's film, which ended its run with a gross of $317.6 million domestically and $969 million worldwide.

``Chamber'' has some mighty numbers to try and match, starting with a historic $90.3 million three-day opening for ``Potter,'' which was a new industry record until ``Spider-Man'' shattered all box office barriers this spring with an unprecedented $114.8 million debut.

``The opening of the first 'Harry Potter' movie was really a monumental achievement and set a new standard,'' said Paul Dergarabedian, president of box office tracker Exhibitor Relations Co. ``It made the $100 million weekend seem like a possibility because we finally broke $90 million. It seemed like maybe $100 million was in reach.''

The new movie, which again stars Daniel Radcliffe as Harry Potter, continues the adventures of Potter and his pals during their second year at the Hogwarts School of Witchcraft and Wizardry. The PG-rated ``Chamber'' is being given the same wide release in theaters that the original movie had, bowing on 8,000 screens.

Despite the tremendous screen count, the movie's running time of two hours and 41 minutes - nine minutes longer than the first ``Potter'' movie - could cut into its opening weekend grosses. ``Spider-Man,'' for example, ran two hours and one minute, allowing for more showings per screen in a single day.

``It runs longer and you limit the amount of show times,'' said Robert Bucksbaum, president of Reel Source Inc., a box office analysis firm. ``Because of that, the opening grosses of the first one are in some ways more impressive than 'Spider-Man.'''

In marketing ``Chamber,'' Warner Bros. has made a point of reaching beyond the franchise's core audience of kids in order to attract additional ticket buyers. The second film, with some scary moments and creature violence, skews a bit older, with Harry now a 12-year-old action hero.

``Because the books are sequential, these characters age every year,'' said Dawn Taubin, Warner Bros.' president of domestic marketing. ``As they age, their adventures become different. We were able to craft a campaign using some of those edgier, more adventuresome moments to target a teenage audience.''

Taubin believes younger moviegoers will also continue to be engaged because there are more elements of magic in ``Chamber'' than in the first film and the new movie also continues the classic theme of good versus evil.

This time around, Warner Bros. has the advantage of already having established with audiences the film images of elements from the beloved books.

``One of the challenges with the first movie was meeting expectations,'' Taubin said. ``The fans of the books, especially the kids who were so passionate, had their own ideas in their heads of what the characters would look like and what Hogwarts would look like. Now if kids see Daniel Radcliffe, they know it's Harry Potter.''

Advance ticket sales on the industry's three main online services - Fandango, Movietickets.com and AOL Moviefone - have been robust leading up to the film's opening day.

But overall, online sales have not been at the level of last year's advance frenzy, when ``Potter'' brought these services to the forefront by selling $3.5 million worth of advance tickets opening weekend.

This year, Santa Monica-based Fandango took the unprecedented step of starting advance ticket sales a full month in advance of today's release date and it immediately became the service's top-seller although it was briefly dislodged last weekend with heavy sales for Eminem's ``8 Mile.''

Bucksbaum is predicting an opening weekend gross in the high $70 million range rather than any of last year's records being matched or broken.

``I think people are setting crazy expectations,'' he said. ``It has only been a year since the other one was released. It will be difficult for it to equal the first movie. If it did it would be amazing.''

Still, in recent years there have been plenty of high-profile sequels that have out-performed their predecessors to rank among the 50 highest- grossing films of all time, including ``Austin Powers in Goldmember,'' ``The Mummy Returns,'' ``Rush Hour 2,'' ``Toy Story 2,'' ``Mission Impossible 2,'' and ``Terminator 2.''

Even some of those that haven't exceeded their predecessor have been blockbusters in their own rights, including the four ``Star Wars'' films released since the 1977 original, which is the biggest moneymaker in the series. Sequels to ``Raiders of the Lost Ark'' have also scored major box office bucks.

``The good news for the second 'Potter' film is that the buzz is really strong,'' Dergarabedian said. ``That bodes well for its chances this weekend.''

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(color) no caption (``Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets'')