WHO REALLY HAS EYES ON THE BIG PRIZE?

Byline: BILLY WITZ

The first three months of the NFL season have served their purpose nicely. They've kept fantasy-league geeks entertained. They've kept those with a gambling, er, sporting interest on the edge of their couch. And, most significantly, they've told us who will not be in the Super Bowl.

Thank you, Tampa Bay. Take a bow, Oakland. Step right up, New York Giants. Come on down, Buffalo. Oh, and let's not forget Vick-less Atlanta or the Pennington-less Jets.

Now, as the days grow dark, the wind turns wicked and Southland temperatures drop into the low 60s, we'll now see who play themselves toward the big prize, not away from it.

As December approaches, it's time to separate the contenders from the pretenders - or as Miami demonstrated so ably in Dallas on Thanksgiving Day, to separate the men from the (Cow)boys.

Judging by the muddled state of things and the scheduling of the next few weeks, there's plenty of sorting to be done.

At various times this season, Kansas City, Tennessee, Carolina, Dallas, New England, Philadelphia and Denver have been identified as front-runners to get to New Orleans. Of course, so has Tampa Bay.

Now what?

Barring wholesale collapses - or the Vikings cloning themselves - there are only two playoff berths in the AFC and one in the NFC that are in jeopardy. Yet, there's more scrambling than when Fran Tarkenton dropped back.

Thanks to the NFL's playoff format and its eight-division alignment, now in its second year, a premium is placed on winning the division.

If you get into the playoffs as one of each conference's two wild-card teams, you're forced to play three road games in three weeks to get to the Super Bowl - something nobody has done since the NFL went to a 12-team playoff in 1990.

Right now, Indianapolis and Tennessee have more in common than ailing quarterbacks. They have Super Bowl aspirations and 9-2 records in the AFC South.

The teams meet next week in Nashville, where the Titans need a victory to even the season series and the Colts need it to survive a tougher schedule - they host New England today and Denver on Dec. 21.

The stakes are more or less the same as last season when the Colts went to Tennessee with a one-game lead in early December. They lost and with the Titans sitting at home with a bye, the Colts went to the playoffs as a wild-card, where they weren't worth jack. They were trounced by the Jets, 41-0.

There's a similar situation in the NFC East. The Eagles lead the Cowboys by a half-game and at 8-3 (after losing their first two games) are one of the league's hottest teams. They'd better remain one. Philadelphia hosts Dallas next week, but the Eagles travel to Carolina today and also have trips to Miami and Washington sandwiched around a visit from San Francisco. A Dallas victory next week gives the Cowboys a season sweep and the tiebreaker.

In the NFC West, St. Louis has a one-game lead over Seattle and a cushy schedule, but if the Seahawks win in St. Louis in two weeks, it would give them a sweep of the season series with the Rams.

The next few weeks also pit many of the top contenders against one another. Carolina plays Philadelphia and New England plays Indianapolis today, and staggering Minnesota visits St. Louis.

Next week, Dallas plays at Philadelphia, Indianapolis at Tennessee, Kansas City is at Denver, Seattle goes to Minnesota, Miami travels to New England and Cincinnati is at Baltimore - all games that will carry playoff implications for both teams.

Carolina and Kansas City, thanks to four-game leads (with and without tiebreaker advantages), are the only teams who can shut things down and rest up for the playoffs without suffering for it. Or can they?

It's worth noting that no team made the playoffs last season without a winning record in December and rarely does anyone turn around a late slump to get to the Super Bowl. The Raiders made it to the Super Bowl winning four of their last five, and the Buccaneers won it by winning three of their final four.

Which brings us to the poster boys of December dismay - the Dolphins. Since 1995, the Dolphins are 13-16 in December. Coach Dave Wannstedt backed off in training camp and brought in veterans like Sammy Knight and Junior Seau to provide better leadership.

The victory over the Cowboys was impressive, but it isn't December. Lying ahead are New England, Philadelphia and a trip to Buffalo - always pleasant this time of year, for those who can afford to leave the igloo behind.

At least the Dolphins have a sporting chance. For the Lions, Raiders and 49ers, not even a trip to Barbados sounds good.

They all have a chance to go winless on the road this season, the two Bay Area clubs and Lions coach Steve Mariucci, one of its recent residents, a combined 0-17.

They wouldn't be the first to leave their hearts in San Francisco, but their playbooks, too?

Billy Witz, [phone]

billy.witz(at)dailynews.com

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ON THE GRIDIRON

By Matthew Kredell