WHO GETS HIM NEXT?; WE LOOK AT THE CONTENDERS FOR OSCAR 2000.

Byline: Dave McNary Daily News Staff Writer

``Eyes Wide Shut'' remains Hollywood's longest-running mystery, tantalizing insiders for the past four years as perfectionist director Stanley Kubrick labored over the sexual drama.

It has also clearly become the leading candidate for the year 2000 Academy Awards. And even though Kubrick managed to keep most details about the project secret, it had attained front-runner status long before Kubrick's unexpected death on March 7.

``Eyes Wide Shut'' was an Oscar contender from the moment Warner Bros. announced in late 1995 that Kubrick would start shooting in mid-1996. Production began in November 1996, and had it been finished in a typical amount of time, ``Eyes Wide Shut'' would have been a major challenger to ``Titanic'' last year or ``Saving Private Ryan'' and ``Shakespeare in Love'' this year.

Instead, ``Eyes Wide Shut'' needed a stunning 15 months of production, numerous reshoots and a million feet of film to reach completion.

Along the way, Kubrick's secretive methods generated a continual buzz. Actors had to sign agreements not to talk to the press, and shooting scripts were kept under strict security. The drama is said to be about a pair of married psychiatrists (played by the married Tom Cruise and Nicole Kidman) and their sexual lives, but only a few Warner executives, Cruise and Kidman, and Pat Kingsley, a top public relations executive, have seen the film.

On March 10, a 90-second clip from the film was shown to thousands of theater exhibitors at the Showest convention in Las Vegas. The excerpt included an explicit nude scene of Kidman.

Kubrick's track record ensures ``Eyes Wide Shut'' will receive the most serious consideration from the academy. It is only his seventh film over the last 35 years, but that list includes ``Dr. Strangelove,'' ``The Shining,'' ``Barry Lyndon,'' ``Full Metal Jacket,'' ``2001: A Space Odyssey'' and ``A Clockwork Orange.''

``The best way to predict Academy Award nominees is to look at the director,'' noted Robert Bucksbaum, president of the Reel Source forecasting service. ``Anything by Kubrick is going to be a major film. His death is going to help memorialize not just `Eyes Wide Shut' but all his work.''

The original thinking in Hollywood was that Warner Bros. would probably release the movie late in the year. That's because if a studio releases a serious movie in December, it's a clear signal that it's aiming for Oscar nominations, because academy members tend to prefer recently released movies.

``If `Saving Private Ryan' had been released in December, there is no way that `Shakespeare in Love' would have had more nominations,'' Bucksbaum noted. ``And without a doubt, `The Truman Show' would have gotten a best picture nomination if it had been released in December.''

But movies with Tom Cruise don't come along very often - this is his first since ``Mission: Impossible'' two years ago - so giving it a prime slot in the middle of summer makes solid sense from a box-office standpoint. ``Saving Private Ryan,'' ``Braveheart'' and ``Forrest Gump'' cleaned up after opening during the summer and were still able to rack up plenty of Oscar nominations half a year later.

In March 1998, ``Saving Private Ryan'' and ``The Thin Red Line'' were easy to identify as lead contenders for this year's Academy Awards, given the presence of Steven Spielberg and Terrence Malick as directors and the ultra-serious subject matter. But Spielberg and Malick are absent this year, so ``Eyes Wide Shut'' is far and away the logical candidate so far.

Nevertheless, studio executives are already wondering how to create the elusive Oscar buzz such as that surrounding ``Shakespeare in Love'' in the last few months. But that's tricky. At this point last year, for example, Miramax thought its strongest contenders would be ``Little Voice'' and ``The Castle,'' an Australian comedy now due out in May.

``At this time a year ago, we really didn't know what `Shakespeare in Love' would become,'' recalls Mark Gill, president of Miramax's West Coast operations.

``We've had a lot of luck, and none of these things go on forever,'' he replied. ``I'm sure there will be some years where we don't do well. It's impossible to have this kind of performance every year.''

Still, it will be surprising if Miramax is not a formidable presence at next year's Oscar ceremonies, most likely to be held March 26, 2000. The Disney-owned studio copped 21 nominations this year.

Gill said the best early candidates for the year 2000 ceremonies include:

``Mansfield Park,'' based on Jane Austen's novel, with Embeth Davidtz and Jonny Lee Miller. It's due out in November.

``Holy Smoke,'' a romantic comedy directed by Jane Campion and starring Kate Winslet as an Australian girl who falls under the influence of a guru in India. Harvey Keitel plays a cult-buster with a romantic interest. It's scheduled for the third quarter.

``The Cider House Rules,'' with Tobey Maguire, Charlize Theron and Michael Caine in a romance-drama that begins in an orphanage. It's set for the fourth quarter.

Miramax is also co-producing a potentially strong candidate with Paramount, ``The Talented Mr. Ripley,'' which stars Gwyneth Paltrow, Cate Blanchett, Jude Law and Matt Damon and is directed by Anthony Minghella in his first project since ``The English Patient.'' Due out in November, ``Ripley'' is set in Italy during the 1950s with Damon as an American expatriate specializing in murder.

For Miramax and the rest of the so-called independents, Oscar nominations are a critical marketing tool enabling them to stand out from the plethora of major studio films and the explosion of indie fare. Lion's Gate Entertainment, for example, made a big splash with five major nominations this year for two films it acquired at last year's Sundance festival - ``Affliction'' and ``Gods and Monsters.''

``We don't look for films with the idea that they're going to receive specific award consideration,'' said Tom Ortenberg, president of Lion's Gate. ``I think that's a sucker's game. To have acquired two films like we did last year out of the same festival was extraordinary, so we were not expecting it to happen again.''

Despite that qualifier, Lion's Gate has two early Oscar 2000 candidates:

``The Red Violin,'' a drama with Samuel L. Jackson and Greta Scacchi that will open in June. The film, which has grossed $2.5 million in Canada, consists of five vignettes over four centuries showing how the instrument has affected a variety of lives.

``We think it will be the art-house hit of the summer,'' Ortenberg said. ``There was some thought given to holding it until later, but there are a lot of great promotional opportunities with a concert series. We're releasing at the best time for its commercial prospects, and we'll worry about the awards later.''

``American Psycho,'' which began production last week and is pegged for a November release. Based on Brett Easton Ellis' controversial novel, it drew significant heat last year when Leonardo DiCaprio was expected to star, but that deal never materialized. Christian Bale is the lead with Reese Witherspoon, Willem Dafoe, Jared Leto and Samantha Mathis.

Several other projects look promising, according to studio insiders:

``The Green Mile,'' directed by Frank Darabont in a Stephen King story with Tom Hanks as a Death Row guard. It's due in December from Warner Bros.

``Angela's Ashes,'' directed by Alan Parker and based on Frank McCourt's memoir of his childhood in Ireland. The Paramount project, with Emily Watson and Robert Carlyle, has no release date and may not qualify this year.

``All the Pretty Horses,'' directed by Billy Bob Thornton and starring Matt Damon as a cowboy coming of age in Mexico and Texas in 1949. Sony plans a November release.

``The Story of Us,'' a drama directed by Rob Reiner with Bruce Willis, Michelle Pfeiffer and Paul Reiser. Universal has set a Dec. 17 release.

``Joan of Arc,'' directed by Luc Besson with Milla Jovavich, Dustin Hoffman and Faye Dunaway. Sony has set it for Nov. 5.

``Snow Falling on Cedars,'' directed by Scott Hicks with Ethan Hawke and James Cromwell, set on a Northwest island in the '50s and based on David Guterson's novel. Originally set for last December, Universal now plans a fall release.

``Breakfast of Champions,'' directed by Alan Rudolph with Bruce Willis and Nick Nolte, based on the Kurt Vonnegut novel. Disney has not set a release date other than later this year.

``The General's Daughter,'' directed by Simon West, featuring John Travolta investigating a murder. Based on Nelson DeMille's best seller, it also stars Madeleine Stowe, James Cromwell and James Woods. Paramount will release it on June 11.

``Three Seasons,'' directed by Tony Bui and starring Harvey Keitel and several Vietnamese actors in a saga of modern-day Saigon. It became the first film at Sundance to win the Grand Jury Prize and Audience Award. October Films, which scored two major nominations for ``Hilary and Jackie,'' has set an April release.

``Jakob the Liar,'' directed by Peter Kassovitz and starring Robin Williams as a cafe owner in Nazi-occupied Poland. Sony plans an October release.

CAPTION(S):

6 Photos

Photo: (1) ``Angela's Ashes,'' based on Frank McCourt's best-selling memoir and starring Emily Watson, left, and Robert Carlyle, may not be released in time for 2000 Academy Award contention.

(2) Paramount's ``The General's Daughter'' features John Travolta, left, Madeleine Stowe and Timothy Hutton.

(3) ``Jakob the Liar'' stars Robin Williams as a cafe owner in Nazi-occupied Poland.

(4) Miramax and Paramount team up for ``The Talented Mr. Ripley,'' with Matt Damon.

(5) Oscar favorite Tom Hanks, left, leads the cast in ``The Green Mile.''

(6) no caption (Academy Awards statuette)