WHERE DOES--AND WILL--THE SENIOR POPULATION LIVE?A boom in the senior population is coming, but it will not begin to occur until the second decade of the new millennium millennium [Lat.,=1,000 years], the period of 1,000 years in which, according to some schools of Christian eschatology, Christ will reign again gloriously on earth. Belief in the millennium, based on Rev. 20, has recurred in Christianity since the earliest times. . Senior population in the United States United States, officially United States of America, republic (2005 est. pop. 295,734,000), 3,539,227 sq mi (9,166,598 sq km), North America. The United States is the world's third largest country in population and the fourth largest country in area. is currently growing slowly. A total of about 34.5 million persons are 65 years of age and older, representing 12.7 percent of the population at the middle of this year, a share little changed from the 12.5 percent recorded in 1990. This trend will continue until the leading edge of the baby boomers See generation X. begins to become seniors in the second decade of the new millennium. The boom in growth in seniors will continue until 2025. The major factor in the slow growth of the number of seniors is currently the low birth rates of the depression years in the 1930s. All of this slow growth is in the new senior's age group. There are 600,000 fewer seniors aged 65 to 69 years now than there were in 1990. There are also 100,000 fewer persons aged 60 to 64 years now than there were in 1990. This is the reason that forecasts of total senior population show below average growth through about 2010--0.8 percent per year versus 1.1 percent for total population. Strong growth in the "super elderly," persons aged 85 years or more, has occurred in the 1990s. There are now about 4.2 million persons aged 85 years or more in the United States, versus 3.1 million in 1990. Their 4.0 percent average annual growth rate is four times that of total population. Their growth over the next 25 years will remain strong, but it is expected to moderate to about a 2.5 percent compounded annual rate. The impact of the baby boomers has been awesome on every age cohort cohort /co·hort/ (ko´hort) 1. in epidemiology, a group of individuals sharing a common characteristic and observed over time in the group. 2. they pass through, and this will continue as they become seniors. Seniors by the year 2025 are expected to total 61.6 million persons, accounting for 18.4 percent of the population. They will increase at an average annual rate of 2.6 percent over the 2010 to 2020 period and by 3.1 percent per year over the 2020 to 2025 period. Seniors population growth will average nearly 1.5 million persons per year over the 2010 to 2025 period. This certainly places the concern over the viability of the Social Security system in a more direct context. Housing the seniors will also be a challenge to the shelter A general term used in statutes that relates to the provision of food, clothing, and housing for specified individuals; a home with a proper environment that affords protection from the weather. industry. Demographic See demographics. characteristics tend to be discussed in the trade and general media in national terms, and housing markets are local in nature. The best consistent forecast data available for senior population covers states, not local markets. It should nevertheless be helpful in looking at the distribution of the senior population among states. Florida Florida, state, United States Florida (flôr`ĭdə, flŏr`–), state in the extreme SE United States. A long, low peninsula between the Atlantic Ocean (E) and the Gulf of Mexico (W), Florida is bordered by Georgia and comes to mind when one first thinks about the senior population in the United States. It is California California (kăl'ĭfôr`nyə), most populous state in the United States, located in the Far West; bordered by Oregon (N), Nevada and, across the Colorado River, Arizona (E), Mexico (S), and the Pacific Ocean (W). , however, that by far leads the nation in the numbers of senior persons. This in a sense is not surprising because California also leads in total population. California had 3.6 million seniors in 1998. Florida has the second largest senior population, with 2.7 million persons 65 years of age and older last year. Data on shares of total population show Florida having seniors representing the largest proportion of total population among all states--18.3 percent last year. California has an overall younger population, with seniors accounting for only 11.1 percent of its total. It ranked 46 among all states last year in terms of senior's shares of population. Forecasted growth to the year 2025 shows California still in the lead in numbers in numbered parts; as, a book published in numbers. See also: Number of seniors. Its senior population is expected to total 6.4 million persons by 2025, representing a modest increase in share to 13.0 percent. Florida's senior population will rise to 5.5 million and account for more than one fourth (26.3 percent) of its population. Combined, these two states now have about one in five of all seniors in the United States and will account for about the same share in 2025. More than half (55 percent) of the senior population lives in 10 states. The eight states in addition to California and Florida are essentially the same as the remainder of the 10 most populous pop·u·lous adj. Containing many people or inhabitants; having a large population. [Middle English, from Latin popul states. Georgia Georgia, country, Asia Georgia (jôr`jə), Georgian Sakartvelo, Rus. Gruziya, officially Republic of Georgia, republic (2005 est. pop. 4,677,000), c.26,900 sq mi (69,700 sq km), in W Transcaucasia. , the 10th most populous state, ranks 13th in terms of number of seniors. The table provides the forecasts of senior population and rankings of all of the states. Overall, most states have similar rankings of numbers of seniors and total population now, and the forecast does not really change that relationship over the next 25 years. A more distinct regional pattern exists now among states in the proportion of their populations that are seniors. After Florida, almost all of the states with the highest proportions of seniors are located in the Northeast “Northeastern” redirects here. For the Boston college, see Northeastern University, Boston. Northeast or north east is the ordinal direction halfway between north and east. It is the opposite of southwest. See boxing the compass. and Midwest Midwest or Middle West, region of the United States centered on the western Great Lakes and the upper-middle Mississippi valley. It is a somewhat imprecise term that has been applied to the northern section of the land between the Appalachians . This is not surprising because these are the areas of the country that have been experiencing marked out-migration to the Sunbelt Sunbelt Region, south and southwestern U.S. It is characterized by a warm climate, rapid population growth since 1970, and relatively conservative voting patterns. Comprising 15 states, it extends from Virginia and Florida in the southeast through Nevada in the southwest, states. One should also keep in mind that the range of the shares of seniors to total population is relatively narrow. Pennsylvania Pennsylvania (pĕnsəlvā`nyə), one of the Middle Atlantic states of the United States. It is bordered by New Jersey, across the Delaware River (E), Delaware (SE), Maryland (S), West Virginia (SW), Ohio (W), and Lake Erie and New York , the second largest state in terms of share of seniors, has a 15.9 percent proportion now, versus the 10.1 percent for Georgia, which is 48th. It is expected that the current regional pattern in the shares of seniors to total population among states will change only modestly over the forecast period. Almost all states, however, will experience marked increases in the proportions of seniors after 2010. Oregon Oregon, city, United States Oregon, city (1990 pop. 18,334), Lucas co., NW Ohio, a suburb adjacent to Toledo, on Lake Erie; inc. 1958. It is a port with railroad-owned and -operated docks. The city has industries producing oil, chemicals, and metal products. and Nevada Nevada (nəvăd`ə, –vä–), far western state of the United States. It is bordered by Utah (E), Arizona (SE), California (SW, W), and Oregon and Idaho (N). are expected to experience the largest increases in the shares of their populations that are seniors over the forecast period. It is no accident that they border California. This also may point out a limitation of the forecasts. Seniors were leaving California in droves in the early and mid 1990s in response to its taxes and high housing and living costs. California has been reigning reign n. 1. Exercise of sovereign power, as by a monarch. 2. The period during which a monarch rules. 3. Dominance or widespread influence: the reign of reason. intr.v. in its tax and expenditures policies, which should slow the out-migration of seniors somewhat. Demand for seniors housing over the long run will be very strong, but it will be more restrained in the short run. Demographic factors will limit growth in the senior population over the next 10 years. Property managers, developers, and investors should be careful when evaluating opportunities in senior housing until the baby boomers begin to age into their senior years after 2010. FORECAST OF POPULATIONS AGES 65 YEARS AND UP IN THE UNITED STATES Persons in Thousand
NUMBERS OR PERSONS 65+
Numbers
State 1998 2005 2015 2025
California 3615 3454 4465 6424
Florida 2734 2911 3825 5453
New York 2424 2321 2627 3263
Texas 2000 2297 3089 4364
Pennsylvania 1904 1867 2092 2659
Ohio 1501 1554 1807 2305
Illinois 1496 1494 1735 2234
Michigan 1223 1211 1421 1821
New Jersey 1106 1093 1279 1654
North Carolina 947 1081 1445 2004
Massachusetts 861 827 965 1252
Virginia 767 845 1109 1515
Georgia 755 852 1175 1668
Missouri 745 774 942 1258
Indiana 740 794 963 1260
Wisconsin 691 730 893 945
Tennessee 679 760 994 1355
Washington 652 757 1081 1580
Arizona 617 707 967 1368
Maryland 592 611 763 1029
Minnesota 583 627 764 1099
Alabama 568 613 785 1069
Louisiana 504 555 705 945
Kentucky 493 538 686 917
Connecticut 469 456 526 671
South Carolina 468 517 696 963
Oklahoma 448 504 654 888
Oregon 433 522 741 1054
Iowa 431 462 533 686
Colorado 402 523 745 1044
Arkansas 363 402 533 731
Kansas 354 366 447 605
Mississippi 336 363 456 615
West Virginia 275 295 360 460
Nebraska 229 248 303 405
Nevada 200 257 350 486
New Mexico 198 228 310 441
Maine 175 173 219 304
Utah 184 234 338 495
Hawaii 158 164 211 289
Rhode Island 154 143 162 214
New Hampshire 142 148 194 273
Idaho 139 182 261 374
Montana 117 143 198 214
South Dakota 106 114 137 188
Delaware 96 101 124 165
North Dakota 92 103 126 166
District of Columbia 73 65 71 92
Vermont 73 77 101 138
Wyoming 56 71 101 145
Alaska 34 46 67 92
Total United States 34402 36180 45541 61639
1998 Total
Rank Population
State 1998 2025 Rank Number
California 1 1 1 32666
Florida 2 2 4 14916
New York 3 3 3 18175
Texas 4 4 2 19760
Pennsylvania 5 5 6 12002
Ohio 6 6 7 11210
Illinois 7 7 5 12045
Michigan 8 9 8 9817
New Jersey 9 11 9 8115
North Carolina 10 8 11 7547
Massachusetts 11 18 13 6147
Virginia 12 13 12 6792
Georgia 13 10 10 7642
Missouri 14 17 16 5438
Indiana 15 16 14 5899
Wisconsin 16 26 18 5224
Tennessee 17 15 17 5431
Washington 18 12 15 5689
Arizona 19 14 21 4669
Maryland 20 23 19 5135
Minnesota 21 19 20 4725
Alabama 22 20 23 4352
Louisiana 23 25 22 4369
Kentucky 24 27 25 3937
Connecticut 25 31 29 3275
South Carolina 26 24 26 3836
Oklahoma 27 28 27 3347
Oregon 28 21 28 3282
Iowa 29 30 30 2862
Colorado 30 22 24 3971
Arkansas 31 29 33 2538
Kansas 32 33 32 2629
Mississippi 33 32 31 2752
West Virginia 34 36 35 1811
Nebraska 35 38 38 1663
Nevada 36 35 36 1747
New Mexico 37 37 37 1737
Maine 38 40 38 1244
Utah 39 34 34 2100
Hawaii 40 41 41 1193
Rhode Island 41 44 42 989
New Hampshire 42 42 42 1185
Idaho 43 38 40 1229
Montana 44 42 44 881
South Dakota 45 45 46 739
Delaware 46 47 45 744
North Dakota 47 46 47 638
District of Columbia 48 51 50 523
Vermont 49 49 49 591
Wyoming 50 48 51 491
Alaska 51 50 48 614
Total United States 270313
Percent of Total
Population
State 1998 2005 2015 2025
California 11.1% 10.0% 10.8% 13.0%
Florida 18.3% 17.9% 20.7% 26.3%
New York 13.3% 12.7% 13.9% 16.5%
Texas 10.1% 10.7% 12.7% 16.1%
Pennsylvania 15.9% 15.2% 16.8% 21.0%
Ohio 13.4% 13.6% 15.6% 19.6%
Illinois 12.5% 12.2% 13.5% 16.6%
Michigan 12.5% 12.4% 14.3% 18.1%
New Jersey 13.6% 13.0% 14.3% 17.3%
North Carolina 12.7% 13.1% 16.3% 21.4%
Massachusetts 14.0% 13.1% 16.2% 21.3%
Virginia 11.3% 13.5% 15.7% 19.4%
Georgia 9.9% 10.1% 12.8% 16.9%
Missouri 13.7% 13.5% 15.7% 20.1%
Indiana 12.5% 12.8% 15.0% 19.2%
Wisconsin 13.2% 13.3% 15.7% 16.1%
Tennessee 12.5% 12.7% 15.6% 20.3%
Washington 11.5% 12.1% 15.3% 20.2%
Arizona 13.2% 13.5% 16.6% 21.3%
Maryland 11.5% 11.2% 13.0% 16.4%
Minnesota 12.3% 12.5% 15.0% 19.9%
Alabama 13.1% 13.2% 15.8% 20.5%
Louisiana 12.8% 12.2% 14.6% 18.4%
Kentucky 12.5% 12.4% 14.3% 21.3%
Connecticut 14.3% 13.7% 15.0% 17.9%
South Carolina 12.2% 12.8% 15.9% 20.7%
Oklahoma 13.4% 14.4% 17.3% 21.9%
Oregon 13.2% 14.4% 18.6% 24.2%
Iowa 15.1% 15.7% 17.8% 22.6%
Colorado 10.1% 11.7% 15.4% 20.1%
Arkansas 14.3% 14.6% 18.2% 23.9%
Kansas 13.5% 13.3% 15.2% 19.5%
Mississippi 12.2% 12.5% 15.0% 19.6%
West Virginia 15.2% 16.0% 14.9% 24.9%
Nebraska 13.8% 14.1% 16.4% 21.0%
Nevada 11.4% 12.4% 16.1% 21.0%
New Mexico 11.4% 11.3% 13.5% 16.9%
Maine 14.0% 13.1% 14.3% 21.4%
Utah 8.8% 9.7% 12.7% 17.2%
Hawaii 13.2% 12.2% 13.6% 15.9%
Rhode Island 15.6% 15.2 15.1% 18.8%
New Hampshire 12.0% 11.6% 14.1% 19.0%
Idaho 11.3% 12.3% 16.1% 21.5%
Montana 13.3% 14.2% 18.5% 19.1%
South Dakota 14.3% 14.1% 16.3% 21.7%
Delaware 12.9% 12.6% 14.9% 19.2%
North Dakota 14.4% 15.0% 17.9% 22.8%
District of Columbia 14.0% 12.3% 12.0% 14.0%
Vermont 12.4% 12.1% 15.3% 20.4%
Wyoming 11.4% 12.5% 15.8% 20.9%
Alaska 5.5% 6.6% 8.5% 10.4%
Total United States 12.7% 12.7% 14.7% 18.4%
Annual Change in
Thousands of Persons
State 98-'05 '05-'05 '15-'25
California -23.0 101.1 195.9
Florida 25.3 91.4 162.8
New York -14.7 30.6 63.6
Texas 42.4 79.2 127.5
Pennsylvania -5.3 22.5 56.7
Ohio 7.6 25.3 49.8
Illinois -0.3 24.1 49.9
Michigan -1.7 21.0 40.0
New Jersey -1.9 18.6 40.0
North Carolina 19.1 36.4 37.5
Massachusetts -4.9 13.8 55.9
Virginia 11.1 26.4 40.6
Georgia 13.9 32.3 49.3
Missouri 4.1 16.8 31.6
Indiana 7.7 16.9 29.7
Wisconsin 5.6 16.3 5.2
Tennessee 11.6 23.4 36.1
Washington 15.0 32.4 49.9
Arizona 12.9 26.0 40.1
Maryland 2.7 15.2 26.6
Minnesota 6.3 13.7 33.5
Alabama 6.4 17.2 28.4
Louisiana 7.3 15.0 24.0
Kentucky 6.4 14.8 23.1
Connecticut -1.9 7.0 14.5
South Carolina 7.0 17.9 26.7
Oklahoma 8.0 15.0 23.4
Oregon 12.7 21.9 31.3
Iowa 4.4 7.1 15.3
Colorado 17.3 22.2 29.9
Arkansas 5.6 13.1 19.8
Kansas 1.7 8.1 15.8
Mississippi 3.9 9.3 15.9
West Virginia 2.9 6.5 10.0
Nebraska 2.7 5.5 10.2
Nevada 8.1 9.3 13.6
New Mexico 4.3 8.2 13.1
Maine -0.3 4.6 8.5
Utah 7.1 10.4 15.7
Hawaii 0.9 4.7 7.8
Rhode Island -1.6 1.9 5.2
New Hampshire 0.9 4.6 7.9
Idaho 6.1 7.9 11.3
Montana 3.7 5.5 1.6
South Dakota 1.1 2.3 5.1
Delaware 0.7 2.3 4.1
North Dakota 1.6 2.3 4.0
District of Columbia -1.1 0.6 2.1
Vermont 0.6 2.4 3.7
Wyoming 2.1 3.0 4.4
Alaska 1.7 2.1 2.5
Total United States 254.0 936.1 1609.8
Source: U.S. Departments of Commerce & Labor, Conference Board, Federal Reserve Board, Regis (REmote Graphics InStruction) A graphics language from Digital used on graphics terminals and first introduced on the PDP-11. . J. Sheehan People whose surname is or was Sheehan include:
Sheehan is president of Regis J. Sheehan Data & Forecasting Service, McLean, Virginia McLean is an unincorporated community located in Fairfax County in Northern Virginia. A small geographic area along Chain Bridge Road in Arlington County has a 22101 zip code and is also part of McLean. , and serves as NAA's consulting economist This article is about the profession. For the news publication, see The Economist. An economist is an expert in the social science of economics.[1] . |
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