WATER OUTLOOK STATE FACES SHORTAGES; L.A. COULD DODGE BULLET.

Byline: Joseph Giordono Staff Writer

Mountain snowpack measurements have fallen 40 percent below normal, setting California up for a double whammy of water and power shortages, according to Friday's survey and long-range weather forecasters.

The below-average level raises fears that the state's ability to generate hydroelectric power will drop at a time when it already faces critical energy supply shortages. It also bodes ill for the state's water supply.

``If we continue below normal, there will be a fairly substantial reduction in the ability to produce power,'' said Maurice Roos, a state hydrologist. ``The less runoff that you have, the less water that turns the turbines.''

But Los Angeles city residents could dodge the bullet because of adequate drinking water supplies and the fact so little of the region's power is generated by water, officials said.

While nearly a quarter of the state's power is generated from hydroelectric plants located within the state and throughout the West, the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power receives less than 15 percent of its electricity from hydroelectric plants - and almost all of that comes from the Hoover Dam. The dam harnesses the Colorado River, which is running at capacity.

``We are not concerned at all,'' said Jerry Gewe, a DWP assistant general manager for water. ``We have an adequate supply this year for both drinking water and energy generation.''

The DWP typically gets around 50 percent of its drinking water supply from the Sierras, Gewe said, but that figure ranges from as high as 80 percent to as low as 15 percent yearly.

In shortages, the city purchases water from the Metropolitan Water District. Since 1970, officials said, the city has purchased an average of 20 percent of its water from the MWD.

But the rest of state might not be so lucky.

Officials with the state Department of Water Resources said Friday's snowpack measurements in the Sierras about 90 miles east of Sacramento near Echo Summit showed that runoff will be significantly less than normal this spring.

``We are a little over halfway through the tracking period, and we are about 12 inches behind the pace in the Sierras,'' said Pierre Stephens, the state's senior water supply forecaster. ``Runoffs right now would only be about 70 percent of normal.''

About 40 percent of the state's drinking and irrigation water supplies come from snowpack runoff, officials said.

Earlier this week, the State Water Project announced it could only supply about 20 percent of the water requested by the public agencies it serves.

It is the first time in 6 years that the agency could not meet all the requests, officials said.

While weather forecasters say the state still has a chance to make up for low precipitation in the coming months, the critical period of February through April could be a dry one.

One state forecaster said the chances of reaching normal water levels are 1 in 10. Another forecaster with the national Climate Prediction Center agreed.

``I wouldn't lose hope yet, but the long-term picture does not look so good,'' said Doug LeComte of the CPC. ``The feeling is that California will need precipitation significantly above normal, and the official February through April forecast is for slightly below normal. It is not too encouraging.''

According to the CPC, California and other Northwest states have reported less snow than normal during the past two months.

River basin levels in Washington, northern Idaho, and northwest Montana ranged from 37 to 43 percent of normal, LeComte said.

Snowpack in the Columbia Basin above Portland is the second lowest in the past half-century for this point in the season, and the snowpack for the Columbia River above the Grand Coulee Dam in Washington is already below the previous lowest reading for this time period.

Other weather experts said it's too early to make a full judgment.

``For any given year, the (snowpack) percentages at this time of year are relative,'' said Brent Bower, a hydrologist with the National Weather Service in Oxnard.

``The biggest precipitation periods are still to come, and it doesn't take long to make it up. Locally, it probably makes more sense to watch reservoir levels vs. snowpacks.''

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(color) State Department of Water Resources officials Frank Gehrke, left, and Dave Hart measure the snowpack Friday near Lake Tahoe.

William A. Scales/Mountain Democrat