View an Alternative Method of Assessing Market Valuation of Seven Canadian Oil Sands Companies (COS.UN, DCE, OPC, SU, SYN, UTS, WTO).DUBLIN, Ireland -- Research and Markets (http://www.researchandmarkets.com/reports/c44162) has announced the addition of "Oil Sands Market Valuation Over the Development Cycle" to their offering. Why you should read this report: - Since July 29, 2004, share prices of six of the seven companies appreciated between 105% to 576% (as at January 4, 2006), far exceeding the TSE See Tokyo Stock Exchange. TSE 1. See Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE). 2. See Toronto Stock Exchange (TSE). Composite Index and the WTI WTI West Texas Intermediate WTI Western Transportation Institute (Montana State University) WTI World Tribunal on Iraq WTI With The Idea (used in chess to point to the idea behind a specific move) price over the same period. (The seventh company, SYN, went public on November 15, 2005). - In our opinion, the factors responsible for this stock-price appreciation include the commodity price outlook, greater global interest in the oil sands, corporate and property acquisitions, and a recent surge of capital investment into the northern Alberta region. The capital influx is forecast by the industry to bring production capacity to 2.7 MMb/d in 2015 from 1 MMb/d presently. - We believe the run-up suggests the market is accepting more risk by investing in these companies at increasingly earlier stages of their projects. Ironically, as more oil sands projects are proposed, the risk is being elevated by labor shortages, capital cost inflation and tightening regulatory requirements. - The run-up also suggests the market is not evaluating oil sands companies relative to net asset value (NAV See navigation system and navigation bar. ). This is understandable, since these are unique, long-life mega projects built out in multiple stages, and long-term NAV models are extremely sensitive to discount rate and commodity price assumptions. We present an alternative method of assessing market valuation for seven Canadian oil sands companies (COS.UN, DCE, OPC, SU, SYN, UTS, WTO See World Trade Organization. ) on the basis of enterprise value per estimated recoverable barrel of bitumen. We believe this metric provides a more meaningful comparison for oil sands companies than NAV; however, we caution that while this methodology may provide useful a valuation comparison, we do not recommend it as the only criterion for making investment decisions since factors influence reserve value, project timing, future commodity prices, project-specific risks, and capital and operating costs. All seven companies are heavily weighted to the Athabasca oil sands The Athabasca Oil Sands are a large deposit of oil-rich bitumen located in northern Alberta, Canada. These oil sands consist of a mixture of crude bitumen (a semi-solid form of crude oil), silica sand, clay minerals, and water. of northern Alberta, and their projects are at various stages of development. In the 17 months prior to publish date, share prices of these companies have increased dramatically, excepting the recently listed Synenco. Companies Mentioned Include: - Canadian Oil Sands Trust Canadian Oil Sands Trust is an open-ended investment trust that generates income from its oil sands investment in the Syncrude Joint Venture. Syncrude operates an oil sands facility and produces crude oil through the mining of oil sands from ore deposits in the Athabasca region of - Deer Creek Energy (now Total E&P Canada) - OPTI OPTI Optical OPTI Osteopathic Postdoctoral Training Institution OPTI Optimal/Optimum OPTI Organizational Process Technology Innovation (process area) Canada Inc - Suncor - Synenco Energy Inc - UTS Energy Corp - Western Oil Sands Western Oil Sands (TSX: WTO), headquartered in Calgary, Alberta is a 20 percent partner in the Athabasca Oil Sands Project. Together with their partners, Western Oil Sands mines and extracts recoverable bitumen reserves at the Muskeg River Mine for transportation to the For more information visit http://www.researchandmarkets.com/reports/c44162 |
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