Valley job growth expected to slow, CSUN report says.

The San Fernando Valley experienced continued job growth in 2005 but will likely face a slowdown in coming years, according to a nearly 50-page report made public by the CSUN San Fernando Valley Economic Research Center.

The study was released at the Valley Industry and Commerce Association's annual Business Forecast Conference Oct. 26 at the Sheraton Universal Hotel and examined a wide-ranging list of factors affecting the region's economy.

Among the most striking findings: the Valley's health sector continues to struggle as operating costs outstrip revenues; transportation issues remain a hurdle for growth; and the manufacturing industry has lost jobs at a rate of 2 percent a year in 2004 and 2005.

The conditions show that the Valley economy will soften in 2008, although remain solid compared to other areas, said Dan Blake, who headed the study and reported its findings.

"Even though we're slowing down, we still forecast we're going to do better than L.A. and California," Blake said.

One indication is job growth, which grew by 16,400 people--of 1.9 percent--between 2004 and 2005, ahead of the area's average job growth rate of 1.2 percent.

That growth should continue to increase, although at a more modest clip--around 1.5 percent a year, or 10,000 jobs--in 2007 and 2008, the report said.

The sector to experience the largest growth was professional, scientific and technical skills, which saw a 9.3 percent increase over the two years to 47,084 positions. The sector includes legal services, accounting, architects, design, research and scientific professionals.

The construction industry also showed a 6.8 percent increase from 2004 to 2005, tallying 37,256 positions. That growth could end, however, as the housing spree of the past few years lessens. "It's been a proud recipient of the real estate boom," Blake said of construction jobs.

One sign the boom has went bust: notices of default are on the rise. "We see them going up," Blake said. "This is a sign of distress."

Jack Kyser, chief economist and senior vice president of the Los Angeles County Economic Development Corp., said the changing real estate climate raises questions about how local governments will grapple with the sudden void of new dollars that had been coming from housing projects.

Other concerns include improving infrastructure and addressing the dearth of available, build-able land.

Kyser said the relative health of the Valley closely mirrors that of the region's: strong but slowing.

"Most major industries are in growth mode," Kyser said, "but there are signs of a slowdown."

By CHRIS COATES 

Staff Reporter