Valley Secessionists See Opportunity in Hahn Mayoralty.

CALL it a case of reverse psychology.

Of course, the major Hahn supporters in the Valley secession movement -- including Valley Vote chairman, attorney and Sherman Oaks Homeowners Association president Richard Close, Galpin Ford owner and city Police Commissioner Bert Boeckmann and city Fire Commissioner David Fleming -- won't admit this publicly. They all say they support Hahn because they believe he's the best man for the job.

There's a theory going around that several proponents of San Fernando Valley secession are supporting City Attorney James Hahn in the mayoral runoff -- not because they believe he's the best man for the job, but because they believe his opponent, former Assembly Speaker Antonio Villaraigosa, would be more successful in defanging the secession movement.

"Look, if secession doesn't happen, I want the best person for mayor," Close said. "And I think Hahn is better for the business community -- both north and south of Mulholland."

But privately, the theory that Hahn might be better for the future of the secession movement has been spreading.

"Yeah, I've heard it," one secession leader said.

And political commentator Joel Kotkin said he had talked to a couple of secession proponents who said they had come out for Hahn precisely because they thought he would benefit the movement.

The theory has several variations. In one scenario, secession proponents believe Villaraigosa would try to bring secession opponents and proponents together and hammer out some sort of deal in which an actual vote on secession gets dropped. Hahn, according to this scenario, wouldn't be able to pull this off even if he tried, so a vote for Hahn would essentially allow the secession vote to proceed.

Another scenario has Villaraigosa simply being a more effective and articulate spokesman for the anti-secession side.

"Villaraigosa will be able to make the case for stopping secession better than Hahn can," one political observer said. "He's a more charismatic guy who can sway people more than Hahn can."

Hahn, according to this observer, would be more of a "business-as-usual" mayor, which of course would suit secession proponents just fine.

The third variation on the "Hahn is better for secession" theme is a bit more controversial. Villaraigosa, this scenario goes, would make a strong appeal to the Valley's Latino community that secession would be a raw deal for them. Latinos would then be motivated to come out and vote in enough numbers to defeat the secession proposal.

But, since any secession vote must be citywide, Hahn conceivably could do the same thing in the African-American community in South Central L.A., where he is immensely popular. He could argue that Valley secession would take away valuable resources from their community.

Of course, it must be said that in repeated public statements on secession, Hahn and Villaraigosa have virtually identical positions. Both oppose secession, yet both have said they would not move to block a vote on the issue nor would they go against voters' wishes if they were, to approve a measure to secede, which could come up on the November 2002 ballot.

And, for the record, not all leaders in the Valley secession movement have cast their lot with Hahn. For example, Gerald Silver, president of the Encino Homeowners Association, is backing Villaraigosa.