VOTER STILL SPLIT ON BUDGET MEASURES.

Byline: David M. Drucker Sacramento Bureau

SACRAMENTO - With the March 2 election drawing near, voters remain sharply divided on whether to approve Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger's $15 billion economic recovery package, according to a public opinion poll released today.

The Public Policy Institute of California survey found that support for Proposition 57, the $15 billion deficit-financing bond and centerpiece of the Republican governor's plan, has increased 1 percentage point - to 38 percent - since a statewide television ad blitz began earlier this month.

The bond measure needs more than 50 percent to pass in the March 2 election and both it and Proposition 58, the governor's proposed constitutional spending limit, must pass for either to take effect. Support for Proposition 58 has remained steady at 52 percent.

``The governor's endorsement alone doesn't seem to be enough to get (his plan) the level of support it needs,'' poll director Mark Baldassare said. ``The public isn't feeling the level of urgency their Democratic and Republican elected officials are telling them they should be feeling - it's just not there.''

The good news for Schwarzenegger and Democratic Controller Steve Westly, the recovery plan's co-sponsor, is that opposition to the package has dropped 7 percentage points - to 38 percent - and the ranks of undecided voters increased since the ads began and the two men started appearing at campaign rallies.

The telephone survey of 2,004 adult residents has an error rate of plus or minus 2 percentage points. It was conducted Feb. 8-16.

Proposition 57 could pass if it gains the support of half of the 24 percent of voters now undecided.

``We are very upbeat,'' said Todd Harris, spokesman for the ``Yes on 57 and 58'' campaign. ``Our internal polling is much closer to reality than this poll. Our poll did not show dramatic movement from our TV spots until they'd been on the air for several days.''

Harris declined to disclose the results of his campaign's polling, but said the chief problem with the PPIC survey was that - unlike his latest numbers - it ended too soon and did not take into account the long period of time required for television advertising to affect public opinion.

California has $14 billion in short-term cash loans coming due in early June, and Schwarzenegger designed his recovery package to ensure that the state can pay those notes on time and refinance up to $15 billion of long-term debt.

The spending limit is intended to reassure the credit markets and voters that Sacramento will adopt new fiscal controls and is not simply, in effect, using a new credit card to pay off the balance on an old one.

But thus far it has been a hard sell for Schwarzenegger, whose job-approval rating exceeds 60 percent.

The poll found support for the bond measure lagging despite the bipartisan support it enjoys among top state officials, the state's two Democratic U.S. senators and the chairman of the state Democratic Party.

Only 45 percent of the governor's fellow Republicans support Proposition 57, while only 34 percent of Democrats and 32 percent of independents would vote for it, the poll found.

No organized opposition exists, but Democratic Treasurer Phil Angelides stepped up his rhetorical campaign against the plan this week.

He joined the mayor of Fresno at a town-hall meeting Tuesday and on Thursday released an alternative to the propositions that would serve as a backup should voters reject them March 2 and the courts overturn a $10.7 billion deficit-financing bond authorized by the Legislature and former Gov. Gray Davis.

``The governor has said that if these bonds do not pass, the state will face fiscal chaos and Armageddon; that need not be so,'' Angelides told reporters. ``The reality is, there are credible ways in which we can meet our obligations.''

Angelides spoke out on the same day that one of the state's best-known Democrats, U.S. Sen. Dianne Feinstein, joined Schwarzenegger and Westly at a Santa Monica rally promoting Propositions 57 and 58.

``This is the only way to go,'' Schwarzenegger said.

``There's never been a more important election for the future of the economy,'' Feinstein said.

In Sacramento at almost the same time, Angelides unveiled his proposal. Like Proposition 57, the treasurer's backup plan involves external borrowing - to the tune of two short-term loans totaling $10.9 billion - and the kind of internal borrowing that does not reduce the state's overall debt.

In addition, Angelides proposes an income tax hike to last three years on individuals earning $140,000 annually and married couples making $280,000 that would only pay off the debt accumulated by Sacramento through 2002-03.

The treasurer acknowledged he supports further tax hikes to close the $17 billion deficit projected for fiscal year 2004-05.

``Some people can't shake their passion for tax increases,'' said H.D. Palmer, a spokesman for Schwarzenegger's finance department.

David M. Drucker, [phone]

David.Drucker(at)dailybulletin.com

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2 photos

Photo:

(1 -- 2) At far left, Sen. Dianne Feinstein and Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger speak Thursday in support of Propositions 57 and 58. State Treasurer Phil Angelides, left, on Thursday unveiled an alternative to the $15 billion bond issue.

Kevork Djansezian/Associated Press

Rich Pedroncelli/Associated Press