VENTURA COUNTY SHOWS DECREASE IN FORECLOSURES.

Byline: Terry Kanakri Daily News Staff Writer

Ventura County was the only county in Southern California to report a year-to-year drop in foreclosures during the first four months of 1996, a survey shows.

Analysts said the drop, coupled with lower unemployment, is further proof that the county's economy is stabilizing.

``We're at the beginning of a major economic recovery, and hopefully this sustainable growth will continue,'' said Ali Akbari, director of the Economic Research Center at California Lutheran University in Thousand Oaks.

TRW REDI Property Data reported foreclosures of residential and commercial properties in Ventura County declined 10.5 percent between January and April of this year compared with the same time period in 1995.

Foreclosures numbered 433 during the four-month period, down from 484 in 1995. The drop followed a decline of 12.9 percent during the first four months of 1995 compared with 1994, and follows an annual decline of 18.4 percent in 1995 compared with 1994, the first year-to-year drop since 1989.

By contrast, other Southern California counties were not as fortunate, TRW REDI reported.

For instance, foreclosures in Los Angeles County increased 10.2 percent between January and April of this year compared with 1995. Orange County reported a 28.3 percent increase, Riverside County was up 21.8 percent, San Bernardino was up 23.1 percent, and San Diego was up 5.7 percent.

Nima Nattagh, a TRW REDI market analyst, said Ventura County has fared better because home values have dropped more slowly than those of neighboring counties. For example, home values in the county dropped only 1.6 percent during the first quarter compared with year-ago figures, while home values in Orange County dropped more than 5 percent, he said.

Debbie Rodgers Teasley, regional manager of Coldwell Banker Town & Country, a real estate company that serves Simi Valley and Moorpark, said the latest foreclosure figures bode well for the area's gradual real estate recovery, as evidenced by increasing home sales.

With fewer homes foreclosed, there is less pressure on homeowners to lower their prices to compete with the artificially lower prices of repossessed homes, she said.

``If there's fewer of them, it's better for everyone, and it's also a good sign that the economy is stabilizing,'' she said. ``It's good for homeowners, because it means the market will stabilize, and that means the value won't decline. It's good for a buyer, because it means their investment will be stable. Nobody likes to buy a home and then lose money.''

Across Southern California, however, foreclosures increased 14.5 percent for a total of 22,140, TRW REDI reported.

Unlike in the past, Nattagh said, many lenders are no longer prolonging the foreclosure process, which is hurting many homeowners who are unable to recover financially fast enough to keep their homes.

Also, he said fewer homeowners have enough equity in their homes to pay off their mortgage to avoid foreclosure.

``While this recent rise in foreclosures pales in comparison to the situation we had in the early 1990s, there is concern that further increases will have a generally adverse impact on home values,'' Nattagh said.

Akbari said the county's lower foreclosure figures are part of a positive trend, however.

``This could be the beginning of a major recovery period, assuming that we could sustain the growth with low inflation rate, but that's a big assumption,'' he said. ``If we can't, the (Federal Reserve Bank) would have to take some action to raise the interest rates, and that would be a major stumbling block. It would be an obstacle in this recovery path.''

FORECLOSURES Ventura County was the only county in Southern California to post a drop in foreclosures between the first four months of 1995 and 1996. The following are foreclosure figures in the Southern California region reported during the first four months of 1995 compared with 1996:

County 1995 1996 Change

Ventura 484 433 -10.5%

Los Angeles 9,519 10,490 10.2%

Orange 1,884 2,418 28.3%

Riverside 2,633 3,207 21.8%

San Bernardino 2,928 3,605 23.1%

San Diego 1,880 1,987 5.7%

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