VALLEY HOME SALES DROP BUT PRICES FOR SINGLE-FAMILY RESIDENCES CONTINUE TO CLIMB.

Byline: Gregory J. Wilcox Staff Writer

Sales of single-family homes in the San Fernando Valley fell 14 percent in November compared with last year because of recession fears and tight supply, an industry tracker said Monday.

But prices continued to rise. The single-family home median price, the point at which half the units sell for more and half for less, was $263,000 last month, up 9.6 percent over the past 12 months. The median price was $262,000 in October.

Escrow closed on 889 single-family homes last month, 143 fewer than in November 2000, said the Southland Regional Association of Realtors. Sales fell 12.2 percent, or 124 units, from October.

A slowdown is typical for this time of year but the drop was expected to be in the 7 percent to 9 percent range, said Jim Link, executive vice president of the Van Nuys-based trade association.

``I think in essence ... the whole climate surrounding the economy has caught up to some degree with the local real estate market,'' Link said.

And he notes that while November's sales count came in below expectations, October was better than anticipated.

``If you start lumping the blip up and the blip down (together) it would indicate that things are experiencing their usual slowdown plus a little bit extra,'' Link said.

Percentagewise, the drop was not this year's biggest. In February sales fell 15.1 percent on an annual basis. And July 2000 saw a drop of 20 percent.

``The seasonal impact is arriving later than usual, but the sales total masks a highly stimulated, very active market, especially for this time of the year,'' said Wendy Furth, the Realtors group president.

The market has been struggling with a tight supply and that is not expected to change soon.

At the end of November there were 4,170 active listings through the Valley, down 6.7 percent from a year ago. That is barely a three-month supply of product and specialists say a market this size needs about a six- to seven-month supply.

``Clearly there are not enough homes for sale out there,'' said John Karevoll, an analyst at DataQuick Information Systems.

Sales are also falling across Southern California but he does not believe the market is in for a prolonged slump.

``There is nothing in the statistics at a deeper level that would indicate a long-term change,'' he said.

For example, the mix between high-end and entry-level sales is stable as is the loan-to-value ratio, with down payments in the 15 percent to 18 percent range the norm.

Nima Nattagh, an analyst at FNC, which supplies market information to the mortgage industry, said softness has definitely showed up in real estate markets as the economy soured and Americans struggled with war and recession.

However, 2000 was one of the strongest sales years on record and it is unrealistic to expect that this year will match it.

``There seems to be a consensus that the recession will not be prolonged. There are some indications that as early as the middle of next year we will pull out of it,'' he said.

With prices still climbing, condominiums have become the refuge of choice for first-time buyers.

Last month, escrow closed on 392 condominiums, an annual increase of 8 percent. The median price jumped 4.1 percent to $153,000.

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SOURCE: Southland Regional Association of Realtors