VALLEY ECONOMY ON TRACK SURVEY: AREA GROWTH, PROFITS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

Byline: Chris Sieroty Staff Writer

A majority of business owners believe the San Fernando Valley economy will continue expanding over the next several years, according to a survey to be released Thursday.

The growth will be driven by a surge in the finance and real estate sectors, said the Economic Alliance of the San Fernando Valley's first Business Enhancement Survey.

It is being billed as the most comprehensive analysis yet of the local economy and will be discussed during the nonprofit group's San Fernando Valley Summit 2000 at the Hilton Universal City and Towers hotel.

A key finding is a poll of 750 businesses about their prospects over the next several years. Eighty-six percent believe their sector is growing or stable, and nearly half expect to add jobs over the next two years, according to information released Monday. Only 4 percent see any decline on the horizon.

``This points to a very high level of confidence throughout the Valley's business community that the growth will continue,'' said Bruce Ackerman, president of the Economic Alliance.

About 60 percent of the finance and real estate firms surveyed said they plan to add jobs, more than 50 percent of manufacturers and wholesalers said they are in a growth mode, and about 33 percent of entertainment companies will increase payrolls. Another 30 percent expect their business to remain stable.

The alliance said the forecast is supported by business investment in facilities and equipment. Sixty-six percent of the businesses said they have made significant capital improvements in the past three years and 51 percent expect to do so in the next three years.

There appears to be broad support for the growth scenario.

``We think the San Fernando Valley will continue its growth,'' said Bob Paterson, regional senior vice president with City National Bank and an Economic Alliance board member. ``As our business increases, we will have to hire additional employees to meet that demand.''

Last August, City National Bank acquired Sherman Oaks-based American Pacific State Bank for $90 million. The Beverly Hills-based bank operates eight branches with more than 160 employees in the Valley.

Union Bank of California also has expansion plans for its six area branches, including increasing loans to small businesses, said bank spokeswoman Sharon Woodson-Bryant.

``Right now the local economy is doing very well,'' said Jack Kyser, chief economist with the Los Angeles County Economic Development Corp. ``We see good growth prospects in technology, a rebound in the entertainment industry and a good year for tourism, with the Democratic National Convention.''

There are, however, challenges facing the Valley, Kyser said, who worked on the alliance project.

Universal Studios will face more competition next year from The Walt Disney Co. and its new California Adventure at Disneyland in Anaheim and from a remodeled Knott's Berry Farm in Buena Park.

``Geographically, the Valley is a unit, but inside there are several Valleys with separate communities,'' Kyser said.

Those communities will be challenged to use local resources, including California State University, Northridge, as leverage to attract businesses to continue the economic expansion.

The alliance's project is the most extensive look at the Valley's economic bases. It includes:

--The San Fernando Valley Almanac. This is the first regional data book for area business, media and economists. It will contain figures including employment, housing trends, population and diversity. It was compiled by Robert Scott of Civic Center and executive vice-chair of the alliance.

--The Valley Community Indicators Report. This is a summary of focus groups that include community leaders, businesses and residents. It details areas of concerns to the Valley and what resources should be committed to fix the problems.

--The San Fernando Valley Economic Forecast and Overview. This is Kyser's review of trends that could affect the region in the future.

--The San Fernando Valley Public Opinion Survey. This phone poll asked 800 residents 60 questions, including the topic of possible Valley secession from Los Angeles. The survey was conducted by the Rose Institute at Claremont McKenna College. ``A majority of those polled had a positive outlook on the quality of life in the Valley,'' Ackerman said.