VALLEY'S OUTLOOK IS BRIGHT STRONG JOB-GROWTH FORECAST IN AREA AT LEAST THROUGH '08.

Byline: GREGORY J. WILCOX Staff Writer

The Greater San Fernando Valley's economic future remains bright with job growth continuing through at least 2008 and outperforming the rest of Los Angeles County, according to a forecast to be released today.

Last year, Greater Valley businesses from Glendale to Calabasas accounted for 691,441 jobs and the number should grow by 1.6 percent this year, according to the outlook from the San Fernando Valley Economic Research Center at California State University, Northridge.

``The Valley has moved from a recovery mode to a strong and sustainable growth path, with its strength coming from strong performances in the ... critical entertainment industry, and impressive growth in its large professional and business sector,'' said forecast author Daniel Blake.

The forecast will be released today at the San Fernando Valley Economic Summit at the Sheraton Universal Hotel in Universal City.

The forecast predicts that over the next two years:

Businesses will add more than 10,700 new jobs this year, 12,300 in 2007 and cool slightly to 10,800 in 2008.

The outflow of jobs from the Valley's large manufacturing sector should slow but won't stop. After losing more than 2,400 jobs in 2004 and nearly 1,900 jobs in 2005, the sector's losses will slow dramatically to just over 100 in 2006. Manufacturing job losses will continue through 2008 but will be in the hundreds each year.

Average wages and salaries for all private-sector employees should grow by 4 percent to 5 percent annually. The outlook also calls for relatively improved rates of total payroll growth through 2008.

Retail sales are expected to return to a healthy 2 percent inflation-adjusted growth rate each year through 2008.

The Valley's population will continue to grow, although at a much slower rate than in the past several years. The forecast calls for a population increase of 15,000 to 16,000 each year from 2006 through 2008 with high housing prices keeping growth in check.

Bruce Ackerman, chairman and chief executive officer of the Economic Alliance, said the Valley is benefiting from a broad-based economy.

``We're very pleased. Everybody's waiting for the other shoe to fall and here we're seeing a very solid recovery,'' Ackerman said.

The Valley's biggest employer is the wholesale/retail trade sector and that's going to have solid growth. The only downside, Ackerman said, is that the hourly pay rates are not as high as in the technology or manufacturing sectors.

``It's good news but it could be better news,'' he said.

Of the 11 business sectors tracked by CSUN, nine are projected to grow this year. Construction, which accounted for 36,600 jobs last year, should see a 3.2 percent drop this year while manufacturing, which accounted for 74,977 jobs last year, should decline by 0.2 percent this year.

Blake also noted that the information technology sector, which includes the entertainment industry, is in for some solid growth of 3.3 percent.

That's partly due to an uptick in local production activity, Blake said.

``California and L.A. are finally coming across with some incentives to keep production activity here.''

He also points out that the dollar has been dropping in value relative to some foreign currencies and that makes offshore shooting less attractive.

Jack Kyser, chief economist at the Los Angeles County Economic Development Corp., agrees with Blake's assessment that the Valley will have better job growth.

Kyser's outlook calls for county growth rates of 1.3 percent this year and next and 1.5 percent in 2008. Blake's outlook is for 1.8 percent in 2007 and 1.5 percent in 2008.

``What you have is diversity,'' Kyser said of the Valley economy.

But he thinks that Blake's 2007 forecast might be a bit aggressive and he disagrees with his film-production assessment.

For example, as of Tuesday there were 19 feature films in production around Los Angeles County and one elsewhere in California. By comparison, 35 were in production elsewhere across the country and 19 under way in foreign locals.

``It's not the foreign locations that are a problem; it's the other states. They keep ramping up the incentives and we don't have anything to fight back with,'' Kyser said.

greg.wilcox(at)dailynews.com

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SOURCE: San Fernando Valley Economic Research Center