Uzbekistan.

Capital: Tashkent

Leader: Islam Karimov

Population: 25,150,000

Ethnic Groups. Uzbek (80%), Russian (6%), Tajik (5%)

BACKGROUND

The story here is the same as in the other Central Asian republics. Russian domination in the late 1800s, transfer to Soviet control in the 1920s, independence in1991.

The former leader under the Soviet Union, as elsewhere, became leader under independence by rigging elections and banning opposition. Uzbekistan is the most populous Central Asian country and has the largest armed forces.

Throughout the 1990s, the government repressed even moderate political and religious movements. It used the excuse that it had to crack down on groups calling for the violent overthrow of the government. The effect of this campaign has been to push the moderate opposition into the arms of the extremists because they can see no other way of bringing about change. There have been deadly car bombings in Tashkent and armed attacks on police and the military.

President Islam Karimov's uncompromising policies have created friction between Uzbekistan and the other Central Asian countries.

Uzbekistan opposes any moves towards closer political integration of post-Soviet territory and has pulled out of the Commonwealth of Independent States' collective security treaty.

Uzbekistan has become a key ally of the United States by inviting the U.S. to use its military base at Khanabad for the attack on Afghanistan. Observers say President Islam Karimov hopes to parlay his friendship with the U.S. into becoming the dominant power of Central Asia. But, time may be running out for that plan. The strategic importance of Uzbekistan is lessening as the "war on terrorism" moves away from Afghanistan.

CURRENT ISSUES

The future for Uzbekistan looks bleak unless serious economic and political reforms are put in place. That's the conclusion of the Brussels-based think tank, the International Crisis Group (ICG).

In a February 2003 report, ICG doesn't seem optimistic that President Islam Karimov is going to take the necessary actions to head off a major social upheaval. "Economic growth hardly keeps pace with the population, unemployment is rife, and poverty is deepening," says the report.

Economically, Mr. Karimov has clung tenaciously to his vision for development, which he calls the "Uzbek model." This involves a gradual transition to free-market economic principles in order to avoid social dislocation.

That sounds reasonable, but it relies on government subsidies to cushion the disruption caused by the change. A poor country such as Uzbekistan can't afford these subsidies over the long haul.

The ICG report points out that: "Since 1996, the economic system has been gradually collapsing under its own weight of subsidies and controls."

Uzbekistan signed an agreement with the International Monetary Fund in January 2002. In exchange for financial support, the government was going to introduce 25 reforms, but progress on the changes has been very slow.

Of course, President Karimov refuses to take any blame for his country's economic miseries.

In a February 2003 television address, Mr. Karimov lashed out at what he called a "well-organized, corrupt criminal system," that was working to undermine the Uzbek economy by smuggling consumer goods into the country. "It [smuggling] inflicts enormous damage on our country's economy," he said.

Early in 2003, Uzbekistan virtually closed its borders with its neighbours, causing massive disruption to regional trade. In one instance, Uzbek border guards blew up a bridge spanning a border crossing near the Kyrgyz town of Kara Su. The government-controlled media claimed it was protecting Uzbeks from the "economic aggression," in particular of Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan. Instead, the chief impetus for border closings, some observers contend, is Tashkent's own inability to grapple with economic reforms.

The repression of opponents of the government is another major reason why the country is heading for turmoil, says ICG. The Uzbek leader maintains tight control over freedom of speech and association, making only a few token efforts to improve the country's human rights climate. The hard line taken against opponents has the effect of encouraging more people, particularly young, unemployed men, to join the ranks of extremist Islamic groups.

Western governments, especially the United States, have engaged in quiet diplomacy with Uzbekistan. In closed-door discussions, they press Islam Karimov to ease up on his harsh approach and move towards freedom and democracy.

At the same time, Western governments had, in the past, expressed public support for the president. More recently, there has been a move away from quiet diplomacy because it doesn't seem to have worked.

The European Union has said change is needed. In a January 2003 statement, the EU said: "Any possible development of closer relations between the EU and Uzbekistan would depend upon respect for shared values." It went on to note "the importance of full respect for human rights and the rule of law," while stating the EU's "readiness to give practical support for implementation of judicial and legal reforms in Uzbekistan."

British Ambassador Craig Murray was even more blunt. In a January 2003 speech in Uzbekistan he said: "Uzbekistan is not a functioning democracy, nor does it appear to be moving in the direction of democracy. The major political parties are banned; parliament is not subject to democratic election and checks and balances on the authority of the executive are lacking."

The shock value of these statements, as well as others discussing widespread torture in Uzbekistan is huge. Diplomats just don't speak this plainly or critically of an ally. Ambassador Craig continued, "There is worse: we believe there to be between 7,000 and 10,000 people in detention whom we would consider as political and/or religious prisoners. In many cases, they have been falsely convicted of crimes with which there appears to be no credible evidence they had any connection."

The International Crisis Group says there is no evidence the Uzbek leader wants to change. He and the rest of the ruling elite have everything invested in maintaining the situation the way it is. Uzbekistan's vast security forces may be able to keep the lid on discontent for years, but not forever.

The ICG adds that political leaders are preoccupied with the ongoing power struggles within the system, and thus pay little attention to economic reform.

The report urges the international community to adopt a harder line on the implementation of reform in Uzbekistan.

VALLEY OF TEARS

The Ferghana Valley is Central Asia's most fertile region; it is shared by Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. Poverty in the overcrowded valley is widespread, and it is a place where opposition to all three governments has put down roots. The Ferghana Valley is a centre for militant Islam and it is the home turf of the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU).

Authorities are clamping down on religious observance in the valley. The only thing this seems to do is encourage more and more people to sign up with the IMU. One observer says militant Islamic movements in the Ferghana Valley are growing like a hydra. In Greek mythology, the hydra was a nine-headed creature; when one head was severed, two grew in its place. Its central head was immortal.

Websites

Uzbek Ministry of Foreign Economic Relations http://www.mfer.uz/

Uzbekistan Freenet http://www.freenet.uz/

FACT FILE

President Islam Karimov claims that he was given the approval of 99% of voters in a national referendum in 1995.

President Islam Karimov is facing persistent accusations, published on the Internet, that he has been involved in drug smuggling.