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Use of the Delphi method and nominal group technique in front-end market segmentation.


Abstract: The purpose of this study was to perform front-end segmentation to identify the most appropriate population subgroup sub·group  
n.
1. A distinct group within a group; a subdivision of a group.

2. A subordinate group.

3. Mathematics A group that is a subset of a group.

tr.v.
 for physical activity programming in Utah. A three-round Delphi survey was conducted among 48 physical activity professionals in the state. Analysis involved the use of mean score ranks and confidence intervals confidence interval,
n a statistical device used to determine the range within which an acceptable datum would fall. Confidence intervals are usually expressed in percentages, typically 95% or 99%.
 (95%). A nominal group procedure was also conducted to supplement results of the Delphi survey. Results indicated that children from middle-class income families be targeted in school settings. This study demonstrated that the use of the Delphi and nominal group were practical and serviceable ser·vice·a·ble  
adj.
1. Ready for service; usable: serviceable equipment.

2. Able to give long service; durable: a heavy, serviceable fabric.
 procedures in front-end audience segmentation.

**********

Although the benefits of physical activity are well documented, approximately 78 percent of adults in the United States United States, officially United States of America, republic (2005 est. pop. 295,734,000), 3,539,227 sq mi (9,166,598 sq km), North America. The United States is the world's third largest country in population and the fourth largest country in area.  do not engage in regular and sustained physical activity (5 or more sessions per week, 30 minutes or more per session, regardless of intensity). Over one-fourth of adults are not active at all in their leisure time (DHHS DHHS Department of Health & Human Services (US government)
DHHS Dana Hills High School (Dana Point, California)
DHHS Deaf and Hard of Hearing Services
DHHS Deaf and Hard of Hearing Services
, 2000a).

Data from the 1999 Youth Risk Behavior Survey The Youth Risk Behavior Survey (YRBS) is a biannual survey of adolescent health risk and health protective behaviors such as smoking, drinking, drug use, diet, and physical activity conducted by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.  indicate that only 64% of U.S. adolescents in grades 9-12 had participated in activities that made them sweat and breathe hard for at least twenty, minutes on at least three days per week (DHHS, 2000b). Data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (III) reveal that approximately 30% of boys and girls boys and girls

mercurialisannua.
 ages 8-10 do not engage in three or more sessions of weekly play or exercise that results in sweating or breathing hard (Andersen, Crespo, Bartlett, Cheskin, & Pratt, 1998).

The gap between recommended levels of physical activity and actual or reported levels of physical activity can be attributed to both personal and external influences, including environmental and social factors. These factors are documented in the Surgeon General's Report on Physical Activity and Health (DHHS, 1996).

From a health promotion delivery perspective, one factor that minimizes the effectiveness of interventions designed to increase physical activity is a lack of segmentation to identify population subgroups, who, for several reasons, may be the most ideal targets. Programs that target specific subgroups become especially critical when public budgets and resources for physical activity are limited and measurable outcomes are expected. In addition, targeted approaches based on the subgroup's wants, needs, and expectations, such as those associated with social marketing frameworks, have shown promise in closing gaps between recommended and actual health behaviors, including physical activity (Lefebvre, Harden hard·en  
v. hard·ened, hard·en·ing, hard·ens

v.tr.
1. To make hard or harder.

2. To enable to withstand physical or mental hardship.

3.
, & Zompa, 1988; Owen, Bauman, Booth, Oldenburg, & Magnus, 1995; Neiger, Thackeray, Merrill, Miner, Larsen, & Chalkley, 2001).

Segmentation refers to the process of dividing a population into distinct subgroups based on characteristics that influence an audience's responsiveness to marketing interventions, such as product benefits they find most attractive or the spokespersons they trust the most (Forthofer & Bryant, 2000). While segmentation will not guarantee a successful intervention A procedure used in a lawsuit by which the court allows a third person who was not originally a party to the suit to become a party, by joining with either the plaintiff or the defendant. , poor segmentation or lack of segmentation will likely result in program failure (Slater slat·er  
n.
1. One employed to lay slate surfaces, as on roofs.

2. See pill bug.

3. See sow bug.

Noun 1.
, 1995).

Several benefits of market segmentation Market Segmentation

A marketing term referring to the aggregating of prospective buyers into groups (segments) that have common needs and will respond similarly to a marketing action.
 have been identified. They include providing direction for appropriate resource allocation resource allocation Managed care The constellation of activities and decisions which form the basis for prioritizing health care needs  (Wind, 1978; Swenson, 1990), ensuring programs are customer focused and serve customer needs (Swenson, 1990; Weinstein, 1994; Albrecht & Bryant, 1996), guiding the marketing strategy (Wind, 1978; Weinstein, 1994), ensuring better message design tailored to the audience, and creating a better overall campaign (Slater, 1995; Albrecht & Bryant, 1996). Segmentation requires decision making on three issues: 1) the data or data collection methods that will provide the most reliable foundation for segmentation; 2) the level of specificity required within an identified subgroup; and 3) who will make segmentation decisions.

The most general segmentation strategies use demographic and geographic variables (Slater, 1996). Although these data alone are not usually sufficient to identify an audience's potential response to marketing interventions, they can provide an adequate foundation for segmentation efforts. For example, segmentation decisions cannot be made until an appropriate health problem has been identified. Once identified, the health problem is generally presented in context of its prevalence or associated risk factors among a particular age, race, sex, or socioeconomic so·ci·o·ec·o·nom·ic  
adj.
Of or involving both social and economic factors.


socioeconomic
Adjective

of or involving economic and social factors

Adj. 1.
 stratum stratum /stra·tum/ (strat´um) (stra´tum) pl. stra´ta   [L.] a layer or lamina.

stratum basa´le
. After preliminary decisions result in the selection of a subgroup, more complex segmentation decisions can be made using variables that provide further texture and detail about the identified subgroup. For example, preliminary decision-making may identify African American African American Multiculture A person having origins in any of the black racial groups of Africa. See Race.  women 50 years of age or older as an appropriate subgroup for breast cancer screening This article or section recently underwent a major revision or rewrite and needs further review. You can help! X-ray mammography
Mammography is still the modality of choice for screening of early breast cancer, since it is relatively fast, reasonably accurate, and
 services. Further analysis may suggest that working women within this subgroup be targeted on the basis of expressed willingness to participate and recruit other participants. The result of this systematic two-stage approach is a more narrowly defined subgroup based on factors that influence or determine consumers' response to the health promotion intervention. We propose the use of the terms front-end and back-end In their most general meanings, the terms front end and back end refer to the initial and the end stages of a process flow. These terms acquire more special meanings in particular areas.  segmentation to help make this distinction. Searches on several standard databases have not revealed the use of these terms in other published works.

Front-end segmentation incorporates demographic or geographic data Geographic data is about much more than electronic pictures of maps.

The geographic data that describes our world allows for city planning, flood prediction and relief, emergency service routing, environmental assessments, wind pattern monitoring and many other applications.
 to provide initial, or general direction, while back-end segmentation may use data from focus groups, in-depth interviews or other survey research, commercial market data sets, etc., to make more specific segmentation decisions about the identified subgroup. Data collection in front-end segmentation usually involves quantitative methods since demographic and geographic data are generally reported in context of epidemiologic ep·i·de·mi·ol·o·gy  
n.
The branch of medicine that deals with the study of the causes, distribution, and control of disease in populations.



[Medieval Latin epid
 data. Back-end segmentation may involve either quantitative or qualitative data or both. The primary purpose of front-end segmentation is to identify a subgroup. The primary purposes of back-end segmentation are to refine and describe the subgroup.

Additionally, segmentation requires some decision making about how specific or narrow to make the selected subgroup. This decision, however, is best made during back-end segmentation after appropriate data have been collected and analyzed an·a·lyze  
tr.v. an·a·lyzed, an·a·lyz·ing, an·a·lyz·es
1. To examine methodically by separating into parts and studying their interrelations.

2. Chemistry To make a chemical analysis of.

3.
, a process commonly referred to as formative formative /for·ma·tive/ (for´mah-tiv) concerned in the origination and development of an organism, part, or tissue.  research in social marketing (Bryant, 1998). The key is to narrow the sub group sufficiently during front-end segmentation so further refinement and formative research are manageable during back-end segmentation.

Finally, another important aspect of segmentation in general relates to who should actually make decisions that result in identifying a preferred subgroup. It is favorable fa·vor·a·ble  
adj.
1. Advantageous; helpful: favorable winds.

2. Encouraging; propitious: a favorable diagnosis.

3.
 that a broad, yet manageable number of stakeholders Stakeholders

All parties that have an interest, financial or otherwise, in a firm-stockholders, creditors, bondholders, employees, customers, management, the community, and the government.
 (those who have a vested interest Vested Interest

A financial or personal stake one entity has in an asset, security, or transaction.

Notes:
For example, if you have a mortgage, your bank has a vested interest on the sale of your house.
See also: Right
 in the program) be involved. If a broad representation of stakeholders is involved early in decision making, including segmentation, their support can significantly aid and sustain ensuing en·sue  
intr.v. en·sued, en·su·ing, en·sues
1. To follow as a consequence or result. See Synonyms at follow.

2. To take place subsequently.
 interventions.

ORGANIZATIONAL SETTING OF THE PROGRAM

A challenge recently facing the Utah Department of Health was the need to maximize limited funds for physical activity by segmenting the state population into a more manageable, yet appropriate subgroup. Although physical activity data for Utah suggest relationships exist between a sedentary lifestyle
For anthropology, see sedentism.


Sedentary lifestyle is a type of lifestyle most commonly found in modern (particularly Western) cultures. It is characterized by sitting or remaining inactive for most of the day (for example, in an office.
 and low income and low education levels, higher income and more highly educated populations respond more favorably fa·vor·a·ble  
adj.
1. Advantageous; helpful: favorable winds.

2. Encouraging; propitious: a favorable diagnosis.

3.
 to communications and other interventions that promote physical activity (Utah Department of Health, 1998).

There appear to be no significant relationships in Utah data between age, gender (though males are slightly more sedentary sedentary /sed·en·tary/ (sed´en-tar?e)
1. sitting habitually; of inactive habits.

2. pertaining to a sitting posture.


sedentary

of inactive habits; pertaining to a fat, castrated or confined animal.
), and location of residence (rural vs. urban) and physical activity levels. All non-White races combined in Utah are more sedentary than Whites, though all combined non-White races comprise just over 10 percent of the total population and there are insufficient physical activity data to examine non-White races individually. In addition, there is nothing unique about physical activity data in Utah compared to national data that would make segmentation especially obvious.

In the absence of conclusive Determinative; beyond dispute or question. That which is conclusive is manifest, clear, or obvious. It is a legal inference made so peremptorily that it cannot be overthrown or contradicted.  epidemiologic data related to common demographic variables, alternative strategies appeared to be warranted to make front-end segmentation decisions. Accordingly, the Delphi method The Delphi method is a systematic interactive forecasting method for obtaining forecasts from a panel of independent experts. The carefully selected experts answer questionnaires in two or more rounds.  and Nominal Group technique The nominal group technique is a decision-making method for use among groups of many sizes, who want to make their decision quickly, as by a vote, but want everyone's opinions taken into account (as opposed to traditional voting, where only the largest group is considered).  were identified as appropriate methods to obtain professional consensus from key stakeholders involved with physical activity in the state. These front-end segmentation procedures were considered a first step in a broader segmentation and social marketing planning process.

DESIGN AND IMPLEMENTATION DESIGN

A three-round Delphi survey was conducted to identify the most appropriate population sub group and setting for physical activity programs in Utah. The Delphi technique (programming, tool) Delphi Technique - A group forecasting technique, generally used for future events such as technological developments, that uses estimates from experts and feedback summaries of these estimates for additional estimates by these experts until reasonable consensus  is an established method for obtaining consensus (Duffield, 1993), and has been used to identify problems, define needs, establish priorities, plan curriculum, and identify and evaluate related solutions (Jairath & Weinstein, 1994; Ziglio, 1996). It generally consists of a series of questionnaires which are developed or refined in sequential stages until consensus is achieved. The Delphi technique has a long history of use in health and medicine (Fink fink   Slang
n.
1. A contemptible person.

2. An informer.

3. A hired strikebreaker.

intr.v. finked, fink·ing, finks
1. To inform against another person.
, Kosecoff, Chassin, & Brook, 1984).

A nominal group procedure was used to validate To prove something to be sound or logical. Also to certify conformance to a standard. Contrast with "verify," which means to prove something to be correct.

For example, data entry validity checking determines whether the data make sense (numbers fall within a range, numeric data
 results from the Delphi survey and complete the front-end segmentation process. Gilmore and Campbell (1996) recommend the nominal group process incorporate five to seven people who are knowledgeable about issues under examination. Participants are asked to respond to questions without open discussion before responding in a round-robin fashion that continues until every response from every participant is recorded. Responses are clarified through discussion, then participants select and rank options and make final votes. Since its development in the late 1960s, the nominal group procedure has been used in a variety of professional settings (Gilmore & Campbell, 1996).

SAMPLE

A total of 61 professionals were initially identified by the authors as qualified to provide informed opinion on ideal population subgroups and settings for physical activity. Names of these individuals were verified ver·i·fy  
tr.v. ver·i·fied, ver·i·fy·ing, ver·i·fies
1. To prove the truth of by presentation of evidence or testimony; substantiate.

2.
 by interviews with some of those identified, as well as other health professionals with broad knowledge of Utah's public health and physical activity infrastructure. Potential Delphi survey respondents In the context of marketing research, a representative sample drawn from a larger population of people from whom information is collected and used to develop or confirm marketing strategy.  were selected from community-based programs, health care settings, departments of exercise and sports science Sports science is a discipline that studies the application of scientific principles and techniques with the aim of improving sporting performance. Human movement is a related scientific discipline that studies human movement in all contexts including that of sport.  or physical education in universities throughout the state, the Utah Department of Health, the State Office of Education, local health departments, selected schools, and various worksites.

Criteria for inclusion in the Delphi survey included having a college degree in exercise science, health education, physical education, or a closely related field; a minimum of five years of professional experience related to the promotion of physical activity; a minimum of 25 percent of current job responsibility related to physical activity; a broad orientation in physical activity (i.e., not limited to sports events or fitness classes); and being identified as a leader by professional colleagues. A total of 48 respondents (79 percent) returned the first round of the Delphi survey, and subsequent rounds were limited to these 48 respondents. The response rate for Rounds 2 and 3 was 100 percent. Delphi survey participants were intended to represent the highest level of expertise from Utah's most knowledgeable physical activity professionals.

The nominal group process involved seven physical education/healthy lifestyle curriculum directors from the seven largest school districts in the state representing 61% of all students enrolled in public schools. The composition of nominal group participants was based on results form the Delphi survey. Participants were considered to be the most knowledgeable and best trained physical activity professionals currently working with both children and adolescents in the state. Smaller school districts throughout the state do not routinely employ this type of curriculum director and their faculty do not generally possess the level of expertise required for the nominal group procedure.

INSTRUMENTATION instrumentation, in music: see orchestra and orchestration.
instrumentation

In technology, the development and use of precise measuring, analysis, and control equipment.


The questionnaire used in Round 1 of the Delphi survey included seven demographic variables composed of 32 items. Use of demographics The attributes of people in a particular geographic area. Used for marketing purposes, population, ethnic origins, religion, spoken language, income and age range are examples of demographic data.  was selected as an appropriate framework for front-end segmentation. The study variables were: age (children = 5-12 years, adolescents = 13-18, young adults = 19-25, young middle-aged adults = 26-44, older middle-aged adults = 45-64, and senior adults = 65 and older); gender, race/ethnicity (White, Hispanic, African American, Asian and Pacific Islanders Pacific Islander
n.
1. A native or inhabitant of any of the Polynesian, Micronesian, or Melanesian islands of Oceania.

2. A person of Polynesian, Micronesian, or Melanesian descent. See Usage Note at Asian.
, and American Indian American Indian
 or Native American or Amerindian or indigenous American

Any member of the various aboriginal peoples of the Western Hemisphere, with the exception of the Eskimos (Inuit) and the Aleuts.
, Eskimo, and Aleut); income (low = <$20,000, middle = $20-50,000, high = >$50,000); setting (worksites, schools, health care facilities, churches, and community groups); education level (less than high school, high school diploma A high school diploma is a diploma awarded for the completion of high school. In the United States and Canada, it is considered the minimum education required for government jobs and higher education. An equivalent is the GED.  or equivalent, some college, and a college degree); and general criteria ranking (i.e., which of the demographic variables was most valuable for segmenting the population). Items were reviewed by four surveillance system experts to help organize demographic categories.

In Round 1, participants were asked to rank all 32 items using two criteria: justifiable jus·ti·fi·a·ble  
adj.
Having sufficient grounds for justification; possible to justify: justifiable resentment.



jus
 and probable. Justifiable was defined as a combination of three factors: the least active population, the population most susceptible to health problems related to physical inactivity physical inactivity A sedentary state. Cf Physical activity. , and the total number of people affected. Respondents were asked to combine all three components of the justifiable criterion to produce a general score. This was done to establish a general risk estimate. Probable was defined as the likelihood the population would increase its physical activity level. Ranking involved assigning as·sign  
tr.v. as·signed, as·sign·ing, as·signs
1. To set apart for a particular purpose; designate: assigned a day for the inspection.

2.
 a value of 1 (most justifiable or most probable) to 3, 4, 5, or 6 (depending on the item, least justifiable or least probable) for each of the 32 items across the seven variables.

In subsequent rounds, respondents were asked to review their original responses and either retain them or change them based on the mean scores of all participants or written comments from previous rounds. This is a standard approach in Delphi survey methodology to achieve consensus for items where some degree of agreement has not yet been established.

In Round 3, the justifiable and probable criteria were combined for forced decision-making. Participants were required to simultaneously consider risk estimates and likelihood of engaging in physical activity.

Following Round 3 of the Delphi survey, a nominal group procedure was used to achieve consensus on age and clarify an additional finding from the Delphi survey related to race. The nominal group process used the same criteria as the Delphi survey (justifiable and probable criteria) and determined whether children or adolescents was the most appropriate age segment, and whether dropping race as a segmentation variable was warranted. The nominal group process was performed due to inconclusive INCONCLUSIVE. What does not put an end to a thing. Inconclusive presumptions are those which may be overcome by opposing proof; for example, the law presumes that he who possesses personal property is the owner of it, but evidence is allowed to contradict this presumption, and show who is  results from the Delphi survey. Participants considered these issues independently for one week prior to the nominal group discussion.

ANALYSIS

Consensus was achieved in the Delphi survey when an item within each variable was ranked highest for both the justifiable and probable criteria, and the confidence intervals (95 percent) associated with the mean scores were non-overlapping, meaning that the difference was statistically significant. When consensus was achieved for a variable, it was deleted Deleted

A security that is no longer included on a specified market. Sometimes referred to as "delisted".

Notes:
Reasons for delisting include violating regulations, failing to meet financial specifications set out by the stock exchange and going bankrupt.
 from analysis in subsequent rounds. Consensus was achieved in the nominal group process when all participants concurred fully in a final vote.

PROGRAM OUTCOME MEASURES

Consensus was achieved in Round 1 of the Delphi survey on one of the seven variables. Table 1 displays common agreement on lead ranks (mean scores) and significantly different confidence intervals related to gender only. While children and adolescents were identified as priority population segments for physical activity, an inverse order Inverse order

In the context of periodic repayment schedules, beginning from the end, expected maturity. Opposite of current order.
 was observed between the justifiable and probable criteria. This means that although adolescents were perceived to be at higher risk than children for physical inactivity and more susceptible to problems related to physical inactivity, children were perceived to be more likely to increase their current levels of physical activity.

White and Hispanic populations received the highest ranks for race on both the justifiable and probable criteria, though consensus was not achieved. Based on conclusive written comments in Round 1 suggesting race should not be used as a segmentation criterion, it was dropped from the Delphi survey. While schools received the highest rank for setting on both the justifiable and probable criteria, confidence intervals were not significantly different than worksites as a setting. Inverse (mathematics) inverse - Given a function, f : D -> C, a function g : C -> D is called a left inverse for f if for all d in D, g (f d) = d and a right inverse if, for all c in C, f (g c) = c and an inverse if both conditions hold.  results were observed for income where low income populations were perceived to be at higher risk, and high income populations were viewed as more likely to increase physical activity levels. This paralleled results for education, where less educated individuals were perceived to be at higher risk and higher educated individuals were thought to be more likely to increase physical activity levels. The two variables that were reported as most significant for making segmentation decisions were age and setting. However, confidence intervals were not significantly different.

Consensus was achieved in Round 2 for setting and general criteria ranking, but not for age, income, or educational attainment Educational attainment is a term commonly used by statisticans to refer to the highest degree of education an individual has completed.[1]

The US Census Bureau Glossary defines educational attainment as "the highest level of education completed in terms of the
. Table 2 indicates that schools were identified as the priority setting, and that age, followed by setting, was significantly more important than the other variables as segmentation variables. The same findings and patterns that were noted in Round 1 for variables not attaining consensus were observed in Round 2.

Round 3 provided consensus on income (medium or middle income), but not age. Table 3 displays that children ranked slightly higher than adolescents when combining the justifiable and probable criteria. However, the difference was not significant using confidence intervals. Level of education was dropped as a survey variable in Round 3 because of the preference to focus on children and adolescents as key population segments related to age (i.e., all would have less than a high school education). Since age and setting were identified as the two most important segmentation variables and both were related to children and adolescents, this decision appeared warranted.

The nominal group process resulted in a unanimous decision A Unanimous Decision is a winning criterion in several full-contact combat sports, such as boxing, kickboxing, Muay Thai, mixed martial arts and others sports involving striking in which all 3 judges agree on which fighter won the match.  to target children in Utah for physical activity programming. Based on schools being selected as the preferred setting, unanimous agreement was obtained that either children or adolescents could be justified as a primary population segment. However, two arguments related to available resources and the perceived impact of physical activity among children versus adolescents ultimately resulted in the decision to target children. There was unanimous agreement in the nominal group discussion that a distinct difference exists in resource allocation for physical activity between children and adolescents. For example, there are a sufficient number of trained physical education teachers and specialists in junior (grades 7-9) and senior (grades 10-12) high schools, as well as physical education resources. Conversely con·verse 1  
intr.v. con·versed, con·vers·ing, con·vers·es
1. To engage in a spoken exchange of thoughts, ideas, or feelings; talk. See Synonyms at speak.

2.
, there are substantially fewer such resources in elementary schools elementary school: see school. . There was also a unanimous response that elementary school represents a period of time in life when children are developing attitudes and habits about physical activity and other health behaviors. There was common agreement that programs can have a greater influence and impact on attitudes and behaviors at younger, rather than older, ages.

Because race was eliminated from analysis in the Delphi survey on the basis of written comments, and not by consensus, a final discussion point focused on the importance of race as a segmentation variable. There was unanimous agreement that no racial or ethnic distinction be made in segmenting children for physical activity programming. Participants reported that this had less to do with the value of race as a segmentation variable and more to do with equity for children of all color.

DISCUSSION

Delphi survey respondents perceived no justification for targeting one gender at the exclusion of the other. However, this determination was made before consensus was achieved for age and setting. Although few studies have examined gender differences in physical activity levels among children, it has been reported that boys are more physically active than girls (Kohl kohl  
n.
A cosmetic preparation, such as powdered antimony sulfide, used especially in the Middle East to darken the rims of the eyelids.



[Arabic ku
 & Hobbs, 1998; DHHS, 1999; Sallis, Simons-Morton, Stone, Corbin, Epstein, & Faucette et al., 1992). In general, differences between genders will require program developers to pay attention to formative research data in back-end segmentation, particularly as it pertains to the design of messages and interventions.

Likewise, race was considered an inappropriate segmentation criterion. Racial and ethnic minorities, as compared to Whites are often at higher risk for health related problems. But because approximately 90% of Utah's population is White, it is difficult to exclude Whites in the absence of convincing data or other evidence that clearly supports segmentation of a particular race. Conversely, it was suggested in Round 1 that future physical activity programs not exclude ethnic minorities. Individuals from middle income households were identified as a priority target for physical activity. This was likely more a result of combining the justifiable and probable criteria, since the first two rounds of the Delphi survey produced inverse rankings for income. Whereas individuals from high income households ranked higher on the probable criterion, individuals from low income households ranked higher on the justifiable criterion in both Rounds 1 and 2.

The most appropriate setting identified in the survey was schools. This clearly related to the interest and focus of interventions being directed at children and adolescents. Harsha (1995), stated schools are an ideal setting to reach children and adolescents with health promotion programs. Schools may be a natural setting to promote healthy lifestyles and physical activity because topics are already included in health education curricula, and mandated physical activity programs exist (Pigg, 1989). High percentages of children and adolescents are also enrolled in physical education classes at school (Ross & Gilbert, 1985).

Delphi respondents identified children and adolescents as priority targets for age, although consensus was not achieved. In Round 2, adolescents were identified as more justifiable, though the difference was not significant. In contrast, children were seen as significantly more probable to engage in physical activity. In Round 3, when asked to combine both justifiable and probable, children received a higher ranking, but the confidence intervals were not statistically different.

While Delphi survey participants suggested children are more likely than adolescents to engage in physical activity, nominal group participants suggested that childhood represents a period of life more conducive con·du·cive  
adj.
Tending to cause or bring about; contributive: working conditions not conducive to productivity. See Synonyms at favorable.
 to developing strong attitudes, beliefs, and behaviors related to physical activity. This appears to be supported by available literature. For example, the most extensive and promising research on interventions for promoting physical activity among young people has been conducted with students in schools, primarily at the elementary school level (DHHS, 1996). One study reported that when schools are used as a primary setting for physical activity with appropriate training and support, physical activity levels among children can be raised substantially (Luepker, Perry, McKinlay, Nader, Parcel, & Stone, 1996).

Using the Delphi and Nominal Group procedures and involving a broad representation of stakeholders in front-end segmentation serves many useful purposes. First, it assures the Utah Department of Health that the preliminary sub group selected represented the preference of a broad cross section, and not just a few individuals. Second, it helps justify the decision to target children to an even wider array of stakeholders (i.e., legislators, school administrators, other public health agencies, etc.). Finally, it creates vested interest in programs and activities. For example, the 55 experts who participated in the Delphi and Nominal Group techniques are more likely to support physical activity programs pertaining per·tain  
intr.v. per·tained, per·tain·ing, per·tains
1. To have reference; relate: evidence that pertains to the accident.

2.
 to children in schools because of their participation in preliminary decision making.

Front-end segmentation identified children in elementary schools as a primary target audience for physical activity in the state. A central objective of back-end segmentation is to refine this preliminary target audience. Refinement may be based on factors such as readiness to change, capacity to support change, or support for physical activity in general, all of which may be discovered in focus groups or other survey research. Back-end segmentation may involve surveys of parents, teachers, PTA PTA or parent-teacher association: see parent education.  representatives, or school administrators to identify ideal locations, schools, grades, or even an ideal gender or race. Available market research data, including psychographics psy·cho·graph·ics  
n.
1. (used with a sing. verb) The use of demographics to study and measure attitudes, values, lifestyles, and opinions, as for marketing purposes.

2. (used with a pl.
, may reveal characteristics of parents in certain locations that relate to key characteristics about their children's physical activity patterns. In summary, back-end segmentation will be used to understand wants, needs, values, benefits, and barriers, to further describe and refine the selected subgroup.

As illustrated in this case study, segmentation is a multi-step process. The use of the Delphi and Nominal Group procedures was the first phase of a comprehensive social marketing project. A systematic approach to front-end segmentation, as described here, enables practitioners to carry out the requisite back-end segmentation which further narrows the subgroup and provides direction for the development of interventions. The resulting strategies and communications which reflect consumer preferences are more likely to resonate res·o·nate  
v. res·o·nat·ed, res·o·nat·ing, res·o·nates

v.intr.
1. To exhibit or produce resonance or resonant effects.

2.
 with target audiences and be more effective at modifying health behavior.
Table 1. Delphi Results for Round One: Justifiable and Probable *

Variable                    Mean-J    C.I.-J      Mean-P    C.I.-P

Children                    3.04    2.42 - 3.66   1.70    1.33 - 2.06
Adolescents                 2.78    2.29 - 3.28   3.09    2.57 - 3.60
Young Adults                3.83    3.43 - 4.23   3.13    2.77 - 3.49
Young Middle Aged           3.19    2.74 - 3.64   3.65    3.26 - 4.04
Old Middle Aged             3.09    2.58 - 3.59   4.24    3.83 - 4.65
Seniors                     3.77    3.22 - 4.31   4.57    4.07 - 5.06
Male                        2.73    2.49 - 2.97   2.47    2.20 - 2.74
Female                      2.23    1.97 - 2.49   2.29    2.00 - 2.58
Both                        1.26    1.10 - 1.41   1.41    1.25 - 1.57
White                       2.05    1.57 - 2.53   1.37    1.09 - 1.65
African American            3.10    2.59 - 3.60   3.20    2.83 - 3.56
Asian American              3.12    2.73 - 3.51   3.05    2.71 - 3.39
American Indian             3.17    2.70 - 3.64   4.20    3.79 - 4.60
Hispanic                    2.21    1.86 - 2.57   2.81    2.46 - 3.16
Low Income                  1.40    1.23 - 1.57   2.60    2.39 - 2.81
Medium Income               1.69    1.57 - 1.87   1.73    1.55 - 1.92
High Income                 2.71    2.50 - 2.92   1.69    1.43 - 1.94
Worksite Setting            2.56    2.14 - 2.97   3.00    2.62 - 3.38
School Setting              1.78    1.42 - 2.15   1.47    1.20 - 1.74
Health Care Setting         3.64    3.22 - 4.07   3.67    3.27 - 4.06
Church Setting              3.49    3.11 - 3.87   3.91    3.56 - 4.26
Community Setting           2.64    2.30 - 2.99   2.49    2.18 - 2.80
Some H.S. Education         1.63    1.33 - 1.93   3.26    2.91 - 3.61
High School Diploma         1.63    1.46 - 1.80   2.59    2.34 - 2.83
Some College                2.74    2.50 - 2.98   2.09    1.88 - 2.29
College Degree              3.28    2.95 - 3.62   1.80    1.46 - 2.15
Age                         1.83    1.45 - 2.21   2.21    1.75 - 2.67
Gender                      3.98    3.48 - 4.47   3.79    3.29 - 4.29
Ethnicity                   4.20    3.77 - 4.63   4.88    4.51 - 5.25
Income                      3.87    3.42 - 4.32   3.86    3.34 - 4.38
Setting                     2.67    2.16 - 3.18   2.66    2.23 - 3.08
Education                   3.62    3.18 - 4.07   3.00    2.55 - 3.45

* Lower scores reflect higher rankings
Mean-J = Mean Score for the Justifiable Criterion
C.I.-J = Confidence Intervals for Justifiable
Mean-P = Mean Score for the Probable Criterion
C.I.-P = Confidence Intervals for Probable
Table 2. Delphi Results for Round Two: Justifiable and Probable *

Variable              Mean-J     C.I.-J      Mean-P     C.I.-P

Children               2.92    2.36 - 3.47    1.38    1.09 - 1.66
Adolescents            2.40    1.96 - 2.85    2.91    2.46 - 3.37
Young Adults           3.61    3.22 - 4.00    3.29    2.99 - 3.59
Young Middle Aged      3.24    2.83 - 3.66    3.73    3.40 - 4.06
Old Middle Aged        3.29    2.78 - 3.80    4.27    3.90 - 4.64
Seniors                4.04    3.52 - 4.57    4.53    4.04 - 5.03
Male                   2.78    2.62 - 2.93    2.51    2.31 - 2.71
Female                 2.09    1.92 - 2.26    2.36    2.16 - 2.55
Both                   1.17    1.04 - 1.30    1.23    1.09 - 1.37
Low Income             1.33    1.17 - 1.50    2.70    2.52 - 2.88
Medium Income          1.72    1.56 - 1.88    1.77    1.61 - 1.92
High Income            2.81    2.66 - 2.95    1.51    1.30 - 1.72
Worksite Setting       2.29    1.99 - 2.60    2.94    2.63 - 3.24
School Setting         1.58    1.26 - 1.91    1.23    1.03 - 1.43
Health Care Setting    3.89    3.51 - 4.28    3.96    3.63 - 4.28
Church Setting         3.58    3.25 - 3.92    3.85    3.50 - 4.20
Community Setting      2.65    2.36 - 2.93    2.47    2.21 - 2.73
Some H.S. Education    1.53    1.26 - 1.80    3.48    3.18 - 3.78
High School Diploma    1.67    1.51 - 1.84    2.70    2.51 - 2.88
Some College           2.72    2.49 - 2.94    3.04    1.84 - 2.25
College Degree         3.46    3.16 - 3.75    1.52    1.23 - 1.81
Age                    1.60    1.29 - 1.91    1.79    1.44 - 2.15
Gender                 4.09    3.58 - 4.59    4.15    3.79 - 4.51
Ethnicity              4.45    4.06 - 4.84    5.13    4.82 - 5.44
Income                 3.87    3.47 - 4.27    3.98    3.52 - 4.44
Setting                2.66    2.21 - 3.11    2.57    2.20 - 2.95
Education              3.49    3.13 - 3.85    2.83    2.46 - 3.20

* Lower scores reflect higher rankings
Mean-J = Mean Score for the Justifiable Criterion
C.I.-J = Confidence Intervals for Justifiable
Mean-P = Mean Score for the Probable Criterion
C.I.-P = Confidence Intervals for Probable
Table 3. Delphi Results for Round Three:
Justifiable and Probable Combined

Variable        Mean    SD    Confidence Intervals

Children        1.39   0.49       1.24 - 1.54
Adolescents     1.56   0.50       1.42 - 1.71
Low Income      1.71   0.58       1.54 - 1.88
Medium Income   1.35   0.48       1.21 - 1.49
High Income     2.94   0.24       2.87 - 3.01


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Brad L. Neiger, PhD, CHES Michael D. Barnes

For other people named Michael Barnes, see Michael Barnes (disambiguation).
Michael Darr Barnes (born September 3, 1943 in Washington, DC) represented the eighth district of Maryland in the United States House of Representatives from 1979 to 1987
, PhD, CHES Rosemary rosemary [ultimately from Lat.,=dew of the sea], widely cultivated evergreen and shrubby perennial (Rosmarinus officinalis) of the family Labiatae (mint family), fairly hardy and native to the Mediterranean region. It has small light-blue flowers.  Thackeray, PhD, MPH Natalie Lindman, MS

Brad L. Neiger, Ph.D., CHES, Michael D. Barnes, Ph.D., CHES, and Rosemary Thackeray, Ph.D., MPH, are affiliated with the Department of Health Science, College of Health and Human Performance, Brigham Young University Brigham Young University, at Provo, Utah; Latter-Day Saints; coeducational; opened as an academy in 1875 and became a university in 1903. It is noted for its law and business schools. . Natalie Lindman, MS, is a community health specialist in the Physical Activity Program at the Utah Department of Health. Address all correspondence to Brad Neiger, PhD, CHES, Department of Health Science, College of Health and Human Performance, Brigham Young University, PO Box 22107, Provo, Utah 84602-2107, Phone: 801.378.3313; FAX: 801.378.4388; e-mail: Brad_Neiger@byu.edu.
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