Unwilling to Wield Veto, Schwarzenegger relies on voters to cap budget.

FOR all his bluster about confronting "girlie-men" legislators, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger is a go-along, get-along governor.

For months, cognoscenti have proclaimed that the governor called a special election and is supporting four ballot initiatives because his media handlers want to make millions off these measures. In private, however, his handlers say that Schwarzenegger is pushing the linchpin measure--Proposition 76, which would curb state spending--in order to protect himself from himself, and the sooner the better.

That is: Schwarzenegger knows that for every dollar the state takes in, it is spending close to a dime more--with the help of his own signature. He knows he doesn't have the backbone to use his line-item veto powers to balance spending. He knows he's such a Mr. Nice Guy that he'll sign measures that a tough guy would veto. He knows the real-estate market could slump, thus depriving state and local governments of high tax flows.

So, he asked his finance staff to write a measure to curb the growth of spending.

You could call Proposition 76, "Stop me before I spend too much." After months of the opposition spending at least $80 million bashing the governor and his reform measures, polls show that Proposition 76 is likely to crash and burn. As much as voters have opposed increasing taxes, they've also resented the special election and soured on the Recall Kid.

Team Arnold argues that the public polls are off, that its own polls show the governor's initiatives gaining and that he could win all four initiatives the team is pushing. (Proposition 74 would make it easier for school districts to dismiss bad teachers, Proposition 75 would make it harder for public-employee unions to raise money for political purposes, and Proposition 77 would create fairer districts for congressional representatives and state legislators.)

"I think we're gonna win all four," said Mike Murphy, Schwarzenegger's political consultant. "They know it is Arnold and the people versus the status quo in Sacramento, and they want change."

"They're smoking something," scoffed Roger Salazar on the "no" side. "Everything that we've seen has really shown very little movement one way or another."

Team Arnold thinks that when folks realize that the failure to pass Proposition 76 could lead to higher taxes, they'll vote "yes." The two sides know better than to advertise that more spending eventually leads to higher taxes.

Democratic strategist Darry Sragow had this to say: "I learned to never underestimate Arnold Schwarzenegger, but I think, even if he's in his best form, he is not going to win more than a couple of these." Of the four, Sragow added, the one that matters the most to Schwarzenegger is Proposition 76.

I understand that voters aren't thrilled about the special election. But they should ask themselves what kind of Sacramento they want.

If Schwarzenegger loses big, Big Government, labor and other interests will be emboldened. Democratic lawmakers will snap more ferociously at the governor's heels. There will be more money in politics, more negative ads and more government spending.

But if the governor wins more than he loses, dreamed one adviser, state lawmakers will behave "like kittens."

Debra J. Saunders is a columnist for the San Francisco Chronicle.