United States Department of Commerce Economics and Statistics Administration Bureau of Economic Analysis - Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: October 1995.

WASHINGTON--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Dec. 6, 1995--The composite index of leading indicators decreased 0.5 percent in October to 100.7 (1987 equals 100), according to preliminary estimates prepared by The Conference Board and monitored by the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis.

On the basis of revised estimates, the index decreased 0.1 percent in September and increased 0.2 percent in August. A month ago, the bureau reported estimates that showed the index decreased 0.1 percent in September and increased 0.1 percent in August. Change in manufacturers' unfilled orders of durable goods in 1987 dollars was the major contributor to the August revision.

NOTICE

The Department of Commerce has selected The Conference Board to take over the preparation and dissemination of the composite indexes of leading, coincident, and lagging indicators. This is the third month of the transfer process. The first release (October 4) was prepared and released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) with the assistance of The Conference Board. The second release (November 1) was prepared by The Conference Board, under BEA's direction, and was released by both organizations. Today's release was prepared by The Conference Board, with BEA monitoring the process, and was released by both organizations. The final release of 1995 (December 29) will be prepared and released solely by The Conference Board. There will be no changes in the methodology or composition of the indexes during this period. (See the box on page 4.)

Seven of 11 indicators made negative contributions to the index in October. They were, ordered from the largest negative contributor to the smallest: Change in sensitive materials prices, average workweek, money supply in 1987 dollars, contracts and orders for plant and equipment in 1987 dollars, average weekly initial claims for state unemployment insurance, vendor performance (slower deliveries diffusion index), and building permits.

Four of 11 indicators made positive contributions. They were, ordered from the largest positive contributor to the smallest: Manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods and materials in 1987 dollars, change in manufacturers' unfilled orders of durable goods in 1987 dollars, index of consumer expectations, and stock prices.

The composite index of coincident indicators was not computed for October because only half of its components were available. The index increased 0.2 percent in September to 118.3 (1987 equals 100) and increased 0.5 percent in August.

The composite index of lagging indicators increased 0.2 percent in October to 102.4 (1987 equals 100). The index was unchanged in September and decreased 0.1 percent in August.

The composite indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. Historically, the cyclical turning points in the leading index have occurred before those in aggregate economic activity, while the cyclical turning points in the coincident index have occurred at about the same time as those in aggregate economic activity.

The cyclical turning points in the lagging index generally have occurred after those in aggregate economic activity. A change in direction in a composite index does not signal a cyclical turning point unless the movement is of significant size, duration, and scope.

For more information on these indexes, see the following articles in BEA's monthly Survey of Current Business: "Business Cycle Indicators: Upcoming Revision of the Composite Indexes" (October 1993) and "The Composite Index of Coincident Indicators and Alternative Coincident Indexes" (June 1992).

Data on the composite indexes, their components, and related series appear each month in the "Business Cycle Indicators" section of the Survey of Current Business. (That section will be discontinued after the January 1996 issue. See the box on page 4.) For more information, write to Business Cycle Indicators (BE-52), Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce, Washington, DC 20230, or telephone [phone].

BEA estimates are available in several forms besides the printed news releases.

News releases are available at the time of public release through three electronic services from the Commerce Department's STAT-USA:

(1) Economic Bulletin Board (EBB). Use a personal computer and modem,

dial [phone], and follow instructions.

(2) Internet. Go to http://www.stat-usa.gov/BEN/Services/beahome.html

and follow instructions.

(3) Fax. Quarterly and annual subscriptions are available.

For more information about these services, call [phone].

Summary estimates are available on recorded messages at the time of public release at the following telephone numbers:

[phone] Gross domestic product

5303 Personal income and outlays

5362 Summary of international transactions.

Most of BEA's estimates and analyses appear in the Survey of Current Business, BEA's monthly journal. The Survey of Current Business is available from the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, DC 20402. First class mail: Annual subscription $89.00 domestic. Second class mail: Annual subscription $41.00 domestic, $51.25 foreign; single issue $11.00 domestic, $13.75 foreign.

In addition, the Survey of Current Business is now available on Internet in a searchable, retrievable electronic format at least a week before the printed version. To subscribe to STAT-USA's World Wide Web system, go to http://www.stat-usa.gov. Subscriptions for single-user unlimited access to STAT-USA's Internet information are $50 for 3 months or $150 for 1 year. For further information, call [phone].

The next release for Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators (November data) will be issued by The Conference Board on December 29, 1995, at 8:30 A.M. EST. For more information, see the box on page 4.

     The Conference Board has set the following release schedule for 1996:

Dec. data....Jan. 31       Apr. data....June 3        Aug. data....Oct. 1
Jan. data....Mar. 5        May  data....July 2        Sept. data...Nov. 1
Feb. data....Apr. 2        June data....Aug. 5        Oct. data....Dec. 2
Mar. data....May 1         July data....Sept. 3       Nov. data....Dec. 27

NOTICE

     Beginning December 29, The Conference Board will assume sole
responsibility for the composite index and their components.  The
Conference Board will provide these data to the public through
widespread media distribution and mail and fax services similar to those
now provided by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
     The composite indexes and related series appear each month in the
"Business Cycle Indicators" section of the Survey of Current Business.
That section will be discontinued after the January 1996 issue.
Beginning in February, The Conference Board will produce a new report
patterned after the "Business Cycle Indicators" section.  This report
will contain the composite indexes, their components, and related
series.  Current subscribers to the Survey of Current Business will
receive the first three issues of this report free of charge.  The
composite indexes and related series will also be available from The
Conference Board on diskette and from the Commerce Department on STAT-
USA's Economic Bulletin Board.
     The following distribution services will be available from The
Conference Board:
     Composite Index news release
          Mail service annual subscription: $24
          Fax Service annual subscription: $40
     Business Cycle Indicators Report (annual subscription)
          First class: $120
          Second Class: $95
          Foreign: $125
     Diskettes
          Annual subscription: $200
          One-time purchase: $50
     To order any of these services, or for more information, write to
Customer Service, The Conference Board, 845 Third Avenue, New York, NY
10022 or call [phone].

     Summary estimates of the composite indexes will be available from
The Conference Board on a recorded message at the time of public release
by calling [phone].

     Data for the composite indexes and related series can be accessed
through the following services provided by the Commerce Department's
STAT-USA:
     (1) Economic Bulletin Board (EBB).  Use a personal computer
         and modem, dial [phone], and follow instructions.
     (2) Internet.  Go to http://www.stat-
         usa.gov/BEN/Services/beahome.html
         and follow instructions.
     (3) Fax.  Quarterly and annual subscriptions are available.
         For more information about these STAT-USA services,
         call [phone].

            Summary Table--Composite Indexes
 and Net Contributions for Components of the Leading Index

                                         1995
                                Aug.    Sept.     Oct.

..............................................................
Composite Index Levels and percent change from preceding month
..............................................................

Leading Index
 (1987 equals 100)             101.3r   101.2r   100.7p
  %Chg.                           .2r     -.1      -.5p

Coincident Index
 (1987 equals 100)             118.1    118.3     n.a.
  %Chg.                           .5       .2     n.a.

Lagging Index
 (1987 equals 100)             102.2r   102.2r   102.4p
  %Chg.                          -.1r      .0r      .2p

CONTACT: Bureau of Economic Analysis The Conference Board

Larry Moran:[phone] Bhashkar Mazumder:[phone]

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