Understanding and targeting retention: losing two of every three admitted students to another college is painful. Here's what you can do. (The Admissions Angle).

Which is easier, attracting a new student to your college, persuading her to apply, processing her admission application, convincing her to commit, and then enrolling her as a first-year student; or, helping a currently enrolled student remain in good standing through graduation? Which is less costly? Now ask yourself: Which is the more commonly chosen strategy to fill classrooms?

Parents and students are often shocked when we walk them through the national statistics. How is it, they wonder, that fewer than half of all first-year college students return to the same institution as sophomores? The irony is that freshman retention is only one indicator of institutional quality. Most of the more selective colleges and universities have retention rates above 80 percent, but look at those Ivy League graduation rates.

Then took at yield: It seems logical that since most colleges have yield rates lower than 50--in fact, tower than 30--percent, the process of attracting and enrolling new students is far more difficult and expensive (and frustrating!) than keeping the students who are already there. Losing two of every three admitted students to another college is painful. How, then, can institutions respond to the needs of currently enrolled students in order to improve the odds of their completing their degree successfully? Such is the nature of retention.

RETENTION RISK FACTORS

A recent DOE National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) report, "Profile of Undergraduates in U.S. Postsecondary Educational Institutions: 1999-2000" (nces.ed.gov/das/epubs /2002168/references.asp) confirmed what most educators already know: The American college student population is more diverse than ever, and is overwhelmingly "non-traditional." Three-quarters of all college students in America are not high school graduates under the age of 23 who head off to school directly after graduation, remain dependent upon their parents, have no children, and attend full-time. We need to remember that there are many different college populations in the U.S. We need also to remember that within each population--for example, four-year private, not-for-profit institutions; two-year public community colleges; or four-year public universities--there also exists a great deal of diversity. That's why solutions to one institution's problems may not fit another. Hidden in the NCES report, however, are some dues about the risk factors that can influence student retention:

The report identifies "risk attributes ... all of which were determined to be negatively related to persistence and degree attainment" [p. 31]. The seven factors are:

* Delayed enrollment by one or more years

* Part-time enrollment

* Financial independence

* Having children or dependents

* Single parenthood

* Working full-time

* Having a GED or dropping out of high school

According to the report, "Three-quarters of students [in 1999-2000] had at least one risk factor, and the average number was 2.2. Because these risk factors are largely related to age, the youngest undergraduates (18 or younger) were less likely to report any." The importance of the risk factors becomes clearer when considering their impact on retention: "According to a study of persistence in postsecondary education, 64 percent of beginning students with one risk factor persisted in their postsecondary program or completed a degree within 5 years, compared with 43 percent of those with three or more risk factors."

But just how is risk of attrition related to diversity? "In 1999-2000, a majority of undergraduates were women and nearly one-third were minority students, including one-quarter who were either Black or Hispanic and one-in-twenty who were Asian. A majority of undergraduates were still of traditional age, but about one-quarter were age 30 or older. Roughly one-in-twenty undergraduates were citizens born in another country and just over one-in-ten spoke a language other than English while growing up at home. In addition, nearly one-in-ten reported having some type of disability ... Many of the attributes that characterize diversity among undergraduates, especially work and family responsibilities, also are associated with increased risk of attrition from postsecondary education. Thus, as the diversity of the undergraduate population broadens, the likelihood of students not completing their postsecondary education may also increase." [emphasis added]

This is a stunning conclusion, but let's add two more factors: academic achievement and cost. The NCES report finds that almost 50 percent of African-American students received mostly C or below grades, compared to a third of all college students. Academic failure in itself cannot be ignored as a precursor to a student's non-completion of a degree. Finally, another recent DOE report, "Empty Promises: The Myth of College Access in America," argues that almost 170,000 strongly qualified high school graduates from low- and moderate-income families will not enroll in college this year due to high costs. They will be blocked mainly by the lack of state and federal grant aid. Not only will first-year students not enroll, but one can surmise that current students will find it harder to remain in college, to remain full-time, and to avoid working full-time.

WHAT'S A COLLEGE TO DO?

Knowing and understanding these trends is vital. Targeting financial, counseling, childcare, mentoring, multicultural resources and support, disability services, job placement, work-study, and other help is imperative. But understanding the relationship between the trends and resources, and your particular institutional profile is critical: Public community colleges will face the greatest retention challenges, because their student population evidences the most risk factors. Private, selective, four-year IHEs may have fewer students with some of these risk factors on campus, but cost and achievement and mental health demands will pose their own hazards (especially in a time of diminishing endowment returns, suppressed giving, and pressure to restrain grade inflation). For every IHE, there will be financial and staff limits to what the college can provide, and many risk factors will remain beyond the control of the school. Yet, we still believe that a focus on retention is essential to help students attain their goals, improve satisfaction levels, and, in the long run, save money by stabilizing enrollment and putting less pressure on the Admissions office.

THE LAST (BEST) WORD

If we have to choose one word and one strategy that matters most for retention, it is counseling. In our work, we consistently hear from students that they sense a lack of support and attention at school. From small residential liberal arts colleges and large universities to commuter colleges, institutions cannot seem to provide enough counseling support to address students' individual needs. These demands are for mental health services, financial aid advising, career and graduate placement counseling, internship selection, course and major advising, and residential life improvement. But a single significant mentoring relationship on campus can have a dynamic effect on a student's view of a college, and on his willingness and ability to persist through to a degree. Of course, not all students should stay at the same college for two, four, or six years. Here, too, effective counseling can help some find their way to a better environment. And it can help others to see the different options available right where they are. Then, gathering effective feedback through the academic and residential life system can help an institution to understand the areas where it needs to improve its services in order to retain more of its best patrons.

Howard Greene and Matthew Greene (www.greenesguide.com) are independent education consultants, and the authors of the Greenes' Guides to Educational Planning.