Uncharted waters.

POLITICS

As George W. Bush takes office, gays and lesbians wonder what the future holds

Mystery man

Just how much--if at all--George W. Bush will reach out to gays and lesbians during his term as president remains unclear as he takes office.

At exactly noon on January 20, nearly 50 openly gay and lesbian White House appointees will leave their offices, to be replaced by Republican officials widely expected to be far less sensitive to gay concerns. But don't expect President Clinton's liaison to gays and lesbians to be anywhere near the nation's capital when the moving vans arrive.

"I plan to take a flight out of the country at dawn," says Julian Potter, who served as a close adviser to Democratic presidential candidate Al Gore and campaigned for him across the country. "It's too painful for me to watch the inauguration. My heart is shattered. I can't stand to watch the Republicans undo everything we have done."

In the days following the most bitterly contested presidential election in American history, Potter's lament was repeated again and again by gay Democratic leaders. They expressed shock and anger that after they had helped spur a huge turnout among gay voters, the outcome was determined by a 5-4 U.S. Supreme Court decision. According to exit polls, 70% of gay voters cast ballots for Gore and his running mate, Sen. Joseph Lieberman.

"I go to two predominantly gay gyms, one in Boston and one in Washington," says Rep. Barney Frank, who also campaigned for Gore. "People usually are reluctant to talk politics with me. This year, it was all they wanted to talk about. People just couldn't control their frustration. I haven't seen anything like it in a long time."

Indeed, gay activists must adjust to a radically changed political landscape in Washington. Groups such as the Human Rights Campaign, a national gay fights organization that endorsed Gore, have gone from consummate insiders to wary outsiders nearly overnight. Things aren't even easy for gay Republicans. During the transition period, Log Cabin Republicans, which endorsed George W. Bush, was scrambling even to secure a meeting with the president-elect's aides.

Still, Rich Tafel, executive director of Log Cabin, insists that since at least 1 million gays and lesbians voted for Bush, his group earned the political leverage to negotiate effectively with the White House. "We have two major arguments working in our favor," he says. "One, we did help elect the president by turning out the vote. Second, this is a constituency the Administration clearly needs to reach out to for 2004."

But Frank, a critic of Log Cabin, says that by endorsing Bush without extracting any policy or legislative commitments, the group put itself in a poor bargaining position. "Few of us have Log Cabin's powers of self-delusion," he says. "By claiming credit for Bush's victory without any concrete commitments, they made it very clear that he doesn't have to actually deliver on anything."

In the aftermath of the election, Bush moved quickly to mollify critics in minority groups and other constituencies that voted overwhelmingly for Gore and that questioned the legitimacy of his administration. African-Americans, Latinos, and women were prominently included in Bush's first appointments. Despite the intense anger among gay Democrats, however, he made no similar gestures to lesbians and gays.

"The Bush administration is concerned to some extent about the reality of outrage among women and racial minorities," says Frank. "But they don't see the gay community as a constituency in need of outreach. No matter what Log Cabin says, it's just not an issue on their political agenda."

By The Advocate's press time, Bush's cabinet had not been completed. But for gay activists accustomed to Clinton appointees carefully vetted for their pro-gay credentials, the early signs were not encouraging. For instance, Colin Powell's nomination as secretary of state was widely praised in the media. In December the New York Daily News and the Los Angeles Times described him as an "icon."

Gay activists have a less fond memory of the former chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. Shortly after Clinton, advocating abolition of the military ban on gay and lesbian service personnel, took office in 1993, Powell threatened privately to resign if the president carried out his campaign pledge. (Powell's opposition to the ban was barely mentioned in the glowing coverage of his latest appointment.)

Perhaps even more vexing for opponents of the ban is the choice of Sen. John Ashcroft of Missouri as attorney general. Ashcroft had been targeted for defeat last November by gay activists who objected to his staunchly antigay stands. Ashcroft lost to the widow of Democratic nominee Mel Carnahan, the Missouri governor killed weeks before Election Day in a plane crash.

"Ashcroft's dismal record for racial, gender, and sexual orientation civil rights issues raises serious concerns about his ability to enforce our nation's civil rights laws," says Winnie Stachelberg, political director for the Human Rights Campaign. HRC had given Ashcroft a 0 for his voting record.

Another nominee has an equally poor record on gay issues. As Colorado's attorney general, Gale Norton, tapped to be Interior secretary, was a vigorous defender of the state's notorious Amendment 2, a ballot measure that would have banned gay rights laws in the state. Norton insisted that voters "were not voting out of hatred toward gays" and expressed deep disappointment when the Supreme Court struck down the measure. "The United States Supreme Court revealed that it bought the myth that Colorado is the 'hate state,'" she complained.

Bush's other choices have generally been more moderate. He picked Donald Rumsfeld, who had headed the Pentagon in the Ford administration, as secretary of Defense. The early front-runner for the post, former senator Dan Coats, had caused concern among activists who recalled his fierce opposition to gays in the military. Responding to a reporter's question on whether he will revisit "don't ask, don't tell," Rumsfeld said December 28 that "the priorities are in other areas for me."

"I think Rumsfeld is moderate and a reasonable man," says C. Dixon Osburn, co-executive director of Servicemembets Legal Defense Network, an advocacy group for gay military personnel. "I think the door will still be open for continuing a dialogue with the new administration." Still, Osburn cautions against expecting too much, given Bush's support for "don't ask, don't tell."

Other cabinet nominees have been supportive of gay causes, most notably New Jersey governor Christie Todd Whitman, tapped to head the Environmental Protection Agency. Whitman's support for gay rights and her opposition to the Boy Scouts ban on gay members have made her a political lightning rod for the GOP fight wing.

Tafel says he is pleased with Bush's cabinet choices. "We have been positive about all the appointments so far," he says. "It may be hard for the gay community to understand, but we think Powell sends a good message because he is pro-choice. We think he may have evolved on gays in the military. He may have some guilt about it. The symbolism of a black Republican is a good one."

Log Cabin is closely monitoring Bush's strategy on two other fronts. During the campaign the group repeatedly and unsuccessfully pressed the Bush camp for assurances that he would not revoke Clinton's executive order banning sexual orientation discrimination in the federal workforce, which numbers close to 3 million. For the Republican fight wing, elimination of the order is a litmus test of Bush's commitment to conservative causes. Failed GOP presidential candidate Gary Bauer, former executive director of the religious right group Family Research Council, told the Los Angeles Times, "We will expect Bush to repeal a number of pro-abortion and pro-gay rights executive orders that Clinton issued."

In the end, change in the new administration is more likely to be incremental than radical. The extraordinary closeness of the election and the narrow GOP majorities in both houses of Congress make it unlikely that Bush, at least in the near term, will seek to reverse the gains gays and lesbians have made in the federal government during the past eight years.

"We won't see him kissing Ellen DeGeneres--that's for sure," says Robert Bailey, associate professor of public policy at Rutgers University, in an allusion to Bush's predecessor. "Gay rights is a no-win situation for Bush. If he aligns with the antigay right wing, the media will accuse him of bigotry. If he doesn't, he'll get attacked by conservatives."

Meanwhile, like her boss Al Gore, Julian Potter likely will begin mapping out her comeback after her return from a long vacation. "Politics is what I've always done," she says. "Politics is what I love. As disappointed as I am, I really can't imagine doing anything else. Next time we've got to make this right."

All over the map

Bush's choices to head some key Washington posts have come from all sides of the political spectrum, although overall they tilt toward the conservative, Some of the appointees have a long history--for better or worse--on gay rights,

COLIN POWELL

The secretary of state nominee fought hard to keep the ban on gays in the military,

CHRISTIE WHITMAN

The New Jersey governor, who has a strong pro-gay record, will head the EPA,

JOHN ASHCROFT

One of the most antigay senators, Ashcroft is slated to be the attorney general,