USC SECOND IN BCS AS BIG WEEKEND LOOMS FIVE GAMES COULD BE KEY WITH LSU VYING TO OVERTAKE TROJANS.

Byline: Scott Wolf Staff Writer

USC isn't playing, but the Trojans could face a Separation Saturday this weekend in their bid to hold off Louisiana State in the Bowl Championship Series rankings.

As expected, USC was No. 2 in Monday's BCS rankings, 2.15 points ahead of LSU. But things should get interesting this weekend, when five games could directly affect the Trojans and the Tigers.

``There's not a lot of doubt right now who's No. 2, but the doubt will be next week,'' BCS computer analyst Jerry Palm said.

Although the Trojans have a bye, they might be glued to the TV to see which games break their way. According to Palm, games involving Arizona-Arizona State, Rice-Louisiana Tech, Florida State-Florida, Alabama-Hawaii and Georgia-Georgia Tech impact next week's rankings.

Additionally, two critical games the following week are Notre Dame-Syracuse and Boise State-Hawaii.

No game is more important than Alabama-Hawaii. If Hawaii wins, USC could gain .25 points in its strength-of-schedule rating. Conversely, if Alabama wins, LSU benefits the same amount.

USC defeated Hawaii this season, and LSU defeated Alabama.

Besides Hawaii winning its final two games, USC is rooting for Arizona State, Rice, Florida State, Georgia Tech and Notre Dame.

``If LSU gets all seven games to break their way, USC's done,'' Palm said. ``But if USC gets all seven, LSU is finished.''

Another game to watch Saturday is Tennessee-Kentucky. It doesn't benefit LSU as much to play Tennessee in the SEC title game, so the Tigers hope Kentucky wins, though the Volunteers still would need help to win the SEC East.

This also illustrates how LSU needs more things to happen than USC to finish No. 2 in the final BCS rankings.

``All in all, I'd rather be USC than LSU,'' Palm said.

That's because the Tigers have a tougher schedule. Besides playing Arkansas on Saturday, LSU also will play in the SEC championship game the following week against either Tennessee, Georgia or Florida.

USC will finish its season against Oregon State on Dec. 6 at the Coliseum.

By playing a tougher schedule, however, LSU might leapfrog USC in the seven computer polls that help comprise the BCS rankings, Palm said.

``I wouldn't be surprised if they're ahead in all the computers if they win out,'' Palm said. ``They're already ahead in a couple.''

USC is ahead of LSU in five of the seven computer polls used by the BCS. The lowest computer ranking of each team is thrown out.

As usual, there are countless variables to determine whether USC or LSU finishes No. 2. But one indicator could be who LSU plays for the SEC title.

If the Tigers play Tennessee, the Trojans will be happy, because it meant Georgia lost to Georgia Tech and did not make the conference championship. That also would deprive LSU of quality win points for defeating Georgia.

In Monday's BCS rankings, LSU got an extra 0.4 points deducted because of its victory over Georgia. If you beat a team in the BCS top 10, points are deducted from your final total.

Instead, LSU hopes to play Georgia or Florida in the final. Some assume LSU would be hurt by playing Georgia again, because another loss might drop the Bulldogs out of the top 10.

However, Palm said it might not matter.

``It could work either way,'' he said. ``LSU might benefit enough in its strength of schedule by beating Georgia that it won't matter if they lose the quality-win points. And Georgia might or might not drop out of the top 10.''

An even better turn of events for LSU would be to defeat Florida in the SEC championship. For that to happen, the Gators must first defeat Florida State on Saturday.

Palm said USC (10-1) could improve its strength of schedule 15 spots depending on what happens. LSU (10-1) could move up 26 places. But those are best-case scenarios.

The uncertainty isn't affecting USC coach Pete Carroll, at least outwardly.

He remained on message Monday, claiming to remain ignorant of the BCS scenarios and worried only about winning the Pacific-10 Conference championship outright with a victory over Oregon State.

``We'll look at the next thing as it comes,'' Carroll said. ``I don't know if we win our next game, what it means. It gives us a heck of a shot, but we still won't know until you guys tell us what happens. We're in a mindset and everyone's locked into it.''

Scott Wolf, [phone]

scott.wolf(at)dailynews.com

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