USC FATE MAY RIDE ON BATTLE IN OHIO MAC TITLE GAME ONE OF MANY BCS FACTORS.

Byline: Scott Wolf Staff Writer

What game will determine whether USC or Louisiana State goes to the Sugar Bowl?

USC wide receiver Mike Williams offered his own theory on this week's most important matchup.

``The next thing we'll hear is that the Long Beach Poly-De La Salle game will decide the national championship game,'' Williams joked.

Williams might not be far off. Although the No. 2 Trojans led LSU by 1.53 points in Monday's second-to-last BCS standings, it's the peripheral games that continue to have a wild-card effect on the rankings.

That fact didn't change with Monday's ratings, and it only magnified the importance of a few games not involving the Trojans (10-1) and Tigers (11-1).

``Notre Dame-Syracuse is still a huge game,'' BCS computer analyst Jerry Palm said. ``If Notre Dame wins, LSU needs to finish ahead of

USC in at least six (of the seven) computer polls.

``But if Syracuse wins, LSU may need as few as five computer polls.''

And in a situation sure to further infuriate USC fans, Thursday's game between Miami of Ohio and Bowling Green also could have implications for the Trojans.

Officially, it's the Mid-American Conference title game. But Miami is also ranked fourth in two BCS computer polls: Jeff Sagarin and Anderson and Hester.

If Miami (11-1) defeats Bowling Green, the RedHawks conceivably could move ahead of the Trojans in those power rankings and drop USC to the fourth spot. That would aid LSU's computer ranking, and the Tigers need all the help they can get.

``LSU has to get ahead in the computers by a significant portion,'' Palm said.

One area that isn't helping LSU is the computer rankings of Peter Wolfe, who has the Tigers third behind the Trojans by enough margin to make it difficult to catch the Trojans, Palm said.

``Wolfe's numbers don't look good for LSU,'' Palm said. ``If there's one that fails LSU, that might be the one.''

The other problem for LSU is that it must defeat Georgia on Saturday in the Southeastern Conference title game and hope the Bulldogs don't drop much from the No. 5 position in the top-25 polls.

The higher Georgia stays ranked, the more LSU can count on quality-win points from defeating the Bulldogs. That's why a close victory is preferable.

``It all depends on what the voters do,'' Palm said. ``If Georgia drops down to 12th in the polls, I don't see how they stay in the top 10 of the BCS rankings.''

So why is Notre Dame-Syracuse so important?

Because USC and LSU are relatively close in strength-of-schedule, with the Trojans 37th and Tigers 54th, they can be impacted by teams near them.

The outcome of Notre Dame-Syracuse will affect the strength-of-schedule for Michigan, Purdue and every team in the Big East Conference. And as those teams move up or down, so do the Trojans and Tigers.

Perhaps the bottom line in all the BCS scenarios is that no one is really sure exactly what happens if the Trojans and Tigers win Saturday, because it's so difficult to predict how the computer polls react.

``I would not be surprised if USC went to the Sugar Bowl even if Syracuse wins,'' Palm said. ``And I would not be surprised if LSU went to the Sugar Bowl if Notre Dame wins.''

There still appears to be one certainty, however. Top-ranked Oklahoma makes the Sugar Bowl, regardless of Saturday's game against Kansas State.

``Oklahoma is a lock for the Sugar Bowl,'' Palm said.

Williams, meanwhile, tried to be patient, though he's getting tired of the what-if scenarios.

``It just seems the national media is not ready to give us recognition or props,'' he said. ``There aren't many teams if you line us up against that we can't beat.''

Scott Wolf, [phone]

scott.wolf(at)dailynews.com

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