US-EU Split Over Iran.

The trans-Atlantic relationship between Europe and the US is on life-support, once again, this time over Iran's nuclear ambitions and the way to deal them and over other issues, such as Iraq, global warming, the International Criminal Court, the secret "rendition" of suspected terrorists, and the extra-legal detentions of Guantanamo Bay. The Financial Times on May 1 quoted Assistant US Secretary of State for European Affairs Dan Fried as saying: "The discussion of US-European differences is so very 2003. We have done that. The US-European relationship is at work and in action".

The FT quoted Javier Solana, the EU's high representative for foreign and security policy, as saying: "No more talking of the problems between us. Trans-Atlantic relations are in a good period. The patient is the rest of the world. Global problems would be in a better state if we co-operate".

Both Fried and Solana were speaking at the Brussels Forum, a new trans-Atlantic gathering hosted by the German Marshall Fund and designed precisely to overcome the sour exchanges of the first term of President George W. Bush. Yet away from the public podium most close observers of Atlantic relations, especially on the EU side, are much more doubtful about the depth of the transformation, especially on core questions such as how to deal with Iran's nuclear ambitions, the Hamas government in the Palestinian territory, and Russia's drift away from democracy. Both sides may agree on broad aims, such as stopping Iran getting nuclear weapons, but they differ greatly on how those ends should be accomplished. Iran is top of the agenda, and US expectations of European support for a tough regime of sanctions are running high.

Another divisive issue was a Cold War-type speech by US Vice President Dick Cheney in Vilnius, Lithuania, last week as he strongly attached the Putin regime for having reversed Russia's march towards democracy. He mentioned Cold War terms more than twice in his speech.

The FT quoted Senator John McCain, the senior Republican and potential presidential contender, as saying: "I see political unity, and I don't see it cracking". He wants the UNSC to impose multilateral sanctions, including a prohibition on investment, a travel ban, and asset freezes for government leaders and nuclear scientists. He does not rule out military action to stop Iran getting the bomb, saying: "In the end, there is only one thing worse than military action, and that is a nuclear-armed Iran". That is not how many Europeans see it.

The FT quoted Marta Dassu, the director-general of the Aspen Institute in Rome, as saying: "We fear there might be military action and a nuclear-armed Iran". The FT quoted a German analyst as saying: "If it comes to US military action against Iran, you can bid farewell to the trans-Atlantic relationship". The FT quoted a "senior European diplomat" as saying it was clear that EU member-states did not want a really harsh sanctions regime imposed on Iran, and were relying on Russia and China to block it. The diplomat added: "The Europeans pretend to be tough for the Americans, and soft for the Russians".

As far as Russia is concerned, however, there does seem to have been some convergence in US and European attitudes. Fried said: "On Belarus, Ukraine, the South Caucasus and Russia itself, US-European co-operation has been exemplary. The day does not go by when we are not in touch with each other - on an issue like Belarus, all the time". But the convergence stops at what Cheney said about Putin and Russia's energy weapon.

McCain is particularly outspoken in his criticism of Moscow, especially for its attitude towards former Soviet republics, saying: "The Kremlin pursues greater autocracy at home and undermines democracy abroad". The Europeans are seriously worried about the Kremlin's increasingly muscular use of its gas supplies to play power politics.

Yet the EU is divided on how far to push Moscow. The FT quoted German Minister of Economy and Technology Michael Glos as saying: "There is not much point in continually telling the Russians we do not trust them [as energy suppliers] when we have no alternative".

The US wants to push NATO enlargement further into Russia's backyard, by endorsing "membership action plans" for Ukraine and Georgia. France sees any such gesture as premature. Bruce Jackson, president of the Project on Transitional Democracies and a long-time lobbyist for former members of the Warsaw Pact, believes there is still a clear divide between Washington and Brussels on support for the former Soviet republics.

The positive side of the thaw in US-European relations is that they are now making a much greater effort to point in the same direction. The debacle in Iraq has been chastening for all concerned. But, the FT concluded, "the danger is that in pretending the cracks do not exist, as they do on Iran, they will blunder into a policy on which they cannot deliver".

The FT on May 3 quoted a "foreign policy adviser close to the German leader" as saying Chancellor Angela Merkel was on May 3 to urge US President Bush not to press too quickly for UN sanctions against Iran over its nuclear programme. The FT said the German chancellor, who held her second round of talks with Bush since taking office last year, made it clear to Bush she was worried that "if a whole series of steps against Iran are proposed, including international sanctions, then this would end the unity in the international community on the issue".

Germany opposed US suggestions of building a "coalition of the willing" against Iran outside the UN, but supported as the next step a "chapter seven" resolution in the UNSC. This would legally require Iran to suspend its nuclear fuel cycle programme. The FT quoted the adviser as saying: "If we move on this on a step-by-step basis then I'm confident this next goal in the UN can be achieved". Ms Merkel's talks followed a meeting on May 2 in Paris of diplomats of the permanent five members of the UNSC and Germany, in their first attempt to agree a common line on Iran. But the talks ended inconclusively as Russia and China insisted on softer language for Iran at the UNSC.