US Think-Tank Predicts Full-Scale Israeli Invasion.

Texas-based Strategic Forecasting Inc. (Stratfor), a private company providing global intelligence information to the business world, says in a July 13 report there would be a full-scale Israeli invasion of Lebanon to root out Hizbullah, a move it says could extend as far as southern Beirut. The report says that Israel is ultimately gearing up for a "major, sustained assault into southern Lebanon to eliminate Hezbollah".

Stratfor analysts say at the minimum the incursion would extend to the Litani River - the first natural barrier, roughly 20 miles into Lebanon - and perhaps all the way to southern Beirut. (The Litani River, called Nahr al-Litani in Arabic, is an important waterway in southern Lebanon. It rises in the Beqa' Valley and empties in the Mediterranean Sea north of Tyre. Exceeding 140 km, it is the longest river that originates and flows entirely within the borders of Lebanon). The report says: "...since rockets fired from Lebanon hit Israel's port city of Haifa on July 13, Israel's 7th Armored, Golani and Barak Brigades might push ahead as far as the Litani and let the reservists catch up later. "If the IDF (Israeli Defence Forces) makes this push into Lebanon, the Golani Brigade likely will advance in the east, along the Syrian border to the Bekaa Valley. Its advance probably will be accompanied by air assaults delivering infantry units to the villages at the valley's base. Penetrating the more populated areas further up the valley will involve difficult, urban fighting".

According to the report, the Barak Brigade, which got the state-of-the-art Merkava Mark 3 tank last year, will advance up the coast along a difficult and potentially mined highway. A Merkava tank, the report noted, was destroyed on July 12 by a mine containing a powerful charge that could have been shaped to penetrate heavy armour. The report adds: "The 7th Armored Brigade will advance up the middle, ready to reinforce either the left or right flank. It also could encounter mines. Besides anti-tank mines, Hezbollah is thought to possess anti-tank missiles more advanced than the 1970s-era Soviet AT-3 Sagger anti-tank missile. If Hezbollah's arsenal is sufficiently advanced and properly employed, it could effectively challenge Israeli armor".

The report noted that the longer the Israelis wait to begin the invasion, the more brigades it will have mustered to assist in the advance and the increase of a likelihood of a push to southern Beirut.

Stratfor presents possible responses to a variety of scenarios if Syria were to be involved in the conflict. It says Israel would go for devices to jam Syrian air defence radars and then launch an all-out onslaught to destroy Syria's 80 MiG-29 and 10 SU-27 fighter aircraft. The report points out: "Syria has always crumbled when facing the IDF, and its air defense and pilot training regiments are certainly below par. But nevertheless, Syria's air defense network extends over much of southern Lebanon and poses a very real danger to IAF (Israeli Air Force) operations over Lebanon. Israel successfully devastated this air force in 1982 in a pre-emptive strike".

If the Israelis decide that Syria may resist their efforts in Lebanon, the report says, "Israel will not hesitate to take the network out. [To the Israelis] a devastating pre-emptive strike is preferable to a protracted engagement with the whole air defense network at full alert - a much more complex endeavor that would detract from operations in Lebanon. As long as the Israelis leave Syrian assets intact, they fight with an exposed right flank".

However, the report emphasised that Israel would welcome Syrian restraint and would not widen the conflict unless provoked, adding: "The near future will almost certainly see small firefights, as Israeli special forces reconnaissance units take up more positions inside Lebanon. Of course, the bulk of these units will go undetected. IDF shelling and airstrikes will continue unabated. Depending on Hezbollah's endurance and survivability, their rockets will continue to fly as well".

The Stratfor report noted that the target of the assault was Hizbullah. If the substance of the report is accurate, it appears that Israel hopes to rout Hizbullah in Lebanon once and for all. So far, however, Hizbullah has been able to withstand the Israeli air onslaught but fundamentally the ones to lose out at the end of the invasion will be the innocent elderly, children and women on both sides.

Barry Rubin, an Israeli columnist, said Israel was having trouble defending against Hizbullah attacks because the Hizbullah offensive "is based on surprise and mobility". He said the Shi'ite group "can hit where and when it wishes. Even military effectiveness is not important since they are satisfied if a missile hits anything in Israel. The missiles are the hardest, most sensitive problem". Hizbullah is said to have 13,000 missiles which are easily moved and quickly fired. According to Rubin, the [Hizbullah] missiles' high mobility make them hard to hit before firing and almost impossible to intercept in the air. Their flight path is so fast, short, and low that defensive missiles - useful against those fired from further away [like from Iraq in early 1991] - cannot work".

The real aim, Israeli expert Uri Avnery wrote on July 18, was to change the regime in Lebanon and to install a puppet government. That was the aim of Ariel Sharon's invasion of Lebanon in 1982. It failed. "But", Avnery added, "Sharon and his pupils in the military and political leadership have never really given up on it. As in 1982, the present operation, too, was planned and is being carried out in full coordination with the US. As then, there is no doubt that it is coordinated with a part of the Lebanese elite. That's the main thing. Everything else is noise and propaganda".

On the eve of the 1982 invasion, Avnery recalled, then US Secretary of State Alexander Haig told Sharon that, before starting it, it was necessary to have a "clear provocation", which would be accepted by the world. The provocation indeed took place - exactly at the appropriate time - when Abu Nidal's terror gang tried to assassinate the Israeli ambassador in London. This had no connection with Lebanon, and even less with the PLO - the enemy of Abu Nidal - but it served its purpose. This time, the necessary provocation has been provided by the capture of the two Israeli soldiers by Hizbullah on July 12.

Avnery wrote: "Everyone knows that they cannot be freed except through an exchange of prisoners. But the huge military campaign that has been ready to go for months was sold to the Israeli and international public as a rescue operation. The declared aim of the Lebanon operation is to push Hezbollah away from the border, so as to make it impossible for them to capture more soldiers and to launch rockets at Israeli towns.

The invasion of the Gaza Strip is also officially aimed at getting Ashkelon and Sderot out of the range of the Qassams [missiles]. That resembles the 1982 "Operation Peace for Gallilee". Then, the public and the Knesset were told that the aim of the war was to "push the Katyushas 40 km away from the border". Avnery said: "That was a deliberate lie. For 11 months before the war, not a single Katyusha rocket (nor a single shot) had been fired over the border. From the beginning, the aim of the operation was to reach Beirut and install a Quisling dictator. As I have recounted more than once, Sharon himself told me so nine months before the war, and I duly published it at the time, with his consent (but unattributed). Of course, the present operation also has several secondary aims, which do not include the freeing of the prisoners.

"Everybody understands that that cannot be achieved by military means. But it is probably possible to destroy some of the thousands of missiles that Hezbollah has accumulated over the years. For this end, the army chiefs are ready to endanger the inhabitants of the Israeli towns that are exposed to the rockets. They believe that that is worthwhile, like an exchange of chess figures. Another secondary aim is to rehabilitate the 'deterrent power' of the [Israeli] army. That is a codeword for the restoration of the army's injured pride that has suffered a severe blow from the daring military actions of Hamas in the south and Hezbollah in the north.

"Officially, the Israeli government demands that the government of Lebanon disarm Hezbollah and remove it from the border region. That is clearly impossible under the present Lebanese regime, a delicate fabric of ethno-religious communities. The slightest shock can bring the whole structure crashing down and throw the state into total anarchy - especially after the Americans succeeded in driving out the Syrian Army, the only element that has for years provided some stability.

"The idea of installing a Quisling in Lebanon is nothing new. In 1955, David Ben-Gurion proposed taking a 'Christian officer' and installing him as dictator. Moshe Sharet showed that this idea was based on complete ignorance of Lebanese affairs and torpedoed it. But 27 years later, Ariel Sharon tried to put it into effect nevertheless. Bashir Gemayel was indeed installed as president, only to be murdered soon afterward. His brother, Amin, succeeded him and signed a peace agreement with Israel, but was driven out of office. (The same brother is now publicly supporting the Israeli operation).

"The calculation now is that if the Israeli Air Force rains heavy enough blows on the Lebanese population - paralyzing the sea, and airports, destroying the infrastructure, bombarding residential neighborhoods, cutting the Beirut-Damascus highroad etc. - the public will get furious with Hezbollah and pressure the Lebanese government into fulfilling Israel's demands. Since the present government cannot even dream of doing so, a dictatorship will be set up with Israel's support. That is the military logic. I have my doubts.

"It can be assumed that most Lebanese will react as any other people on earth would: With fury and hatred toward the invader. That happened in 1982, when the Shiites in the south of Lebanon, until then as docile as a doormat, stood up against the Israeli occupiers and created the Hezbollah, which has become the strongest force in the country. If the Lebanese elite now becomes tainted as collaborators with Israel, it will be swept off the map. (By the way, have the Qassams and Katyushas caused the Israeli population to exert pressure on our government to give up? Quite the contrary).

"The American policy is full of contradictions. President Bush wants 'regime change' in the Middle East, but the present Lebanese regime has only recently been set up under American pressure. In the meantime, Bush has succeeded only in breaking up Iraq and causing a civil war (as foretold here). He may get the same in Lebanon, if he does not stop the Israeli Army in time.

"Moreover, a devastating blow against Hezbollah may arouse fury not only in Iran, but also among the Shiites in Iraq, on whose support all of Bush's plans for a pro-American regime are built. So what's the answer? Not by accident, Hezbollah has carried out its soldier-snatching raid at a time when the Palestinians are crying out for succor.

"The Palestinian cause is popular all over the Arab word. By showing that they are a friend in need, when all other Arabs are failing dismally, Hezbollah hopes to increase its popularity. If an Israeli-Palestinian agreement had been achieved by now, Hezbollah would be no more than a local Lebanese phenomenon, irrelevant to our situation.

"Less than three months after its formation, the Olmert-Peretz government has succeeded in plunging Israel into a two-front war, whose aims are unrealistic and whose results cannot be foreseen. If Olmert hopes to be seen as Mister Macho-Macho, a Sharon II, he will be disappointed. The same goes for the desperate attempts of Peretz to be taken seriously as an imposing Mister Security. Everybody understands that this campaign - both in Gaza and in Lebanon - has been planned by the army and dictated by the army".

Lebanese PM Siniora on July 18 criticised the world for not stopping the Israeli offensive, saying: "The international community is not doing all that is can in order to stop Israel continuing its aggression against Lebanon. They are stopping short of exercising the necessary pressure on Israel, while Israel is taking this as a green light". He accused Israel of "committing massacres against Lebanese civilians and working to destroy everything that allows Lebanon to stay alive".

A team sent by the UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan met Siniora and other Lebanese officials in Beirut on July 17. In Jerusalem on July 18 it met Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni and top aides to PM Olmert. Olmert dropped in at the end of the meeting to explain the Israeli position, underlining his scepticism about how any new UN force might work. Olmert, in a televised speech to the Knesset (parliament) on July 17 said Israel would continue fighting until its soldiers were free, the Lebanese Army was deployed along the border and Hizbullah was effectively disarmed in line with UNSC Resolution 1559. (Hizbullah has consistently rejected those terms).

Maj. Gen. Moshe Kaplinsky, Israel's deputy chief of staff, on July 18 told Israel Radio the offensive in Lebanon would last another few weeks, and he said the use of large numbers of ground forces had not been ruled out. He said the IDF needed more time to complete "very clear goals". In the past seven days, the IDF said, it had carried out about 2,000 sorties by warplanes and attack helicopters and hit more than 1,000 targets in Lebanon, including about 200 rocket launchers and sites. It said it had struck four civilian trucks carrying weaponry, believed to be rockets, into Lebanon on the Damascus-Beirut highway. "They were under the guise of civilian trucks", said Captain Jacob Dallal, an army spokesman, adding: "But in each case we could see secondary explosions". (Each Israeli target is approved in advance).

After meeting the UN envoys, Livni said Israel would insist that any settlement include provisions to ensure that Iran and Syria cannot rearm Hizbullah, presumably through some form of international monitoring at the Syrian border and the Beirut airport. Israel has bombed both routes to prevent any rearming for now and has put a sea blockade on Lebanese ports. Livni said any settlement must "end the Iranian and Syrian control over Lebanese and Israeli lives" and repeated Israel's demand that its three captured soldiers - two taken by Hizbullah and one by Hamas and other militants in Gaza - be released "immediately and without conditions".

A US-Israeli consensus emerged on July 18 in which Israel would bomb for another week to degrade the capabilities of Hizbullah militia. Then Ms Rice would travel to the region and seek to establish a buffer zone in southern Lebanon and perhaps an international force to monitor Lebanon's borders to prevent Hizbullah from obtaining more rockets. US officials signalled that Ms Rice was waiting at least a few more days before wading into the conflict, in part to give Israel more time to weaken Hizbollah.

The strategy is risky, however, partly because it is unclear how long the rest of the world, mainly rab allies, will continue to stay silent as the toll on Lebanese civilians rises. Bush administration officials have gone along with an Israeli request for more latitude, but some Israeli military officials said the campaign could last several more weeks.

Hizbullah's continuous flow of rocket has kept nearly 2m Israelis nervous and mostly in shelters. Haifa has been largely shut down, with only grocery stores and pharmacies open.

American officials said Washington was discussing with its Arab allies and Israel how to beef up Lebanon's borders, a central Israeli demand. Israel has been lukewarm to the idea of an international force in Lebanon, but is willing to consider such a deployment if it includes troops from major powers and is used to prevent Hizbullah from supplementing its arsenal.

While disarming Hizbullah entirely remains Israel's goal, it is no longer demanding that as a condition of a ceasefire. Israeli aircraft have been pounding Hizbullah targets, in particular the two dozen or so long-range rockets believed to be capable of hitting Tel Aviv. Israel has made clear it does not want Ms Rice to begin a peacemaking effort yet. President Bush and American officials have resisted joining other world leaders in calling for an immediate ceasefire, reflecting the Israeli view that reaching a truce before destroying a significant number of Hizbullah's missiles would open Israel up to the possibility of more attacks in the future.

Bush repeatedly says Israel must be allowed to defend itself. Speaking at the White House before a meeting congressional members, Bush on July 18 said: "Everybody abhors the loss of innocent life. On the other hand, what we recognize is that the root cause of the problem is Hizbullah". On July 19 a senior US official was quoted as saying: "Some people are uncomfortable with the American position, and we're very careful how we talk about it. We are not going to be wagering with the lives of innocent people here", adding that privately, Bush administration officials are telling the Israelis there is a limit to how much more time the US will be able to give Israel.

Beyond the desire to give Israel time to weaken Hizbullah, administration officials said Ms. Rice should not go to the region until she can actually produce results. Israel, trying to destroy the military capacity of Hizbullah and secure the release of two captured soldiers, said it was targeting only Hizbullah and not the Lebanese army, though attacks on July 17-18 killed 19 Lebanese soldiers.