US Readies The Iraq Operation Rooms In Pakistan & Turkey.

** American Unilateralism Will Frighten All The Other Powers - But Only If It Succeeds In Removing The Saddam Regime

** Then NATO And All Other Multilateral Organisations Will Become Irrelevant Under A New Law Of The Jungle

** Sharon Is Still Trying To Convince Washington That He Can Take OutIran's Nuclear Capability

NICOSIA - As Arab leaders prepare for their March summit meeting in Beirut, the US has completed initial plans for a war against Saddam Hussein's regime in Iraq, with twin operations room set up in Pakistan and Turkey. The war will involve a wide range of US networks stretching all the way from British, German and Italian territories in the north-west to the Pacific in the south-east and will embrace the Indian subcontinent. The command and control system will mark the first unilateral war operation on such a scale since the 19th century.

APS sources indicate that the US plans to conduct its operations against the Baathist regime by depending mainly on allies outside the Gulf area, at least in terms of public support. This is mainly the result of political rather than military imperatives. The Bush administration recognises that its credibility in the Middle East is very low, and does not want to strain relationships more than is absolutely required. Nor does it want to be operationally constrained by regional developments - for instance, by another upsurge of violence in the Palestinian territories - after an assault on the Iraqi leadership has started.

The major operations room will be in Turkey, with the US forces deployed at Incirlik Air Base already having a vast amount of experience in the Iraq theatre - first from Operations Desert Shield and Storm in 1990-1991 and subsequently from ongoing US/British attacks against Iraqi targets, including the fairly large scale strike called Operation Desert Fox in December 1998. Turkey, which is currently in dire need of economic assistance through the multilateral agencies, is expected co-operate closely in any attack on Iraq - providing support in the form of troops, intelligence support and logistics.

The secondary operations room will be in Pakistan, where the regime of President Gen. Pervez Musharraf switched virtually overnight after Sept. 11, 2001, from being the main backer of the Taliban regime in Afghanistan to the main operational ally of the US. For multiple reasons, ranging from economic needs to strategic compulsions, the Pakistani government will provide Washington with whatever it requires for an operation against Iraq.

For the time being, the US has taken over more than four air bases in western Pakistan, including those at Jacobabad, Pasni and Dalbandin. These could be used to launch strikes against Iraq by an assortment of aircraft already in place as part of Operation Enduring Freedom. There are suspicions among other states in the region that the American operations room in Pakistan could in future be used to expand American military activities beyond Iraq. However, much depends on the stability of the Musharraf regime.

Washington may not get the required flexibility it needs in using its existing defence infrastructure in Saudi Arabia, although this cannot be ruled out. Saudi Crown Prince Abdullah said in an interview given to 'Time' magazine of Feb. 25 that Washington had wanted Riyadh's views on action against Iraq, and added that he had "given an answer". He also noted: "I do not believe that the war on terrorism applies to Iran and Iraq. If you have a situation (of Iranian or Iraqi terrorism), it is the result of a small fringe group, and not government policy".

Observers believe that these comments should not be taken to mean that Saudi Arabia would actively oppose any US assault against Iraq. The most likely course of action to be chosen by Saudi Arabia, and to be emulated by the smaller members of the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) would be to stay silent and provide whatever help they can in as discreet a manner as possible. The only exception to this rule may be the emirate of Kuwait, where the government has not hesitated to vocalise its support of the US on the matter of strikes against the regime of Saddam.

The sources say there are mixed feelings among the GCC leadership about American plans for a "regime change" in Iraq, as Secretary of State Colin Powell put it. On the one hand, no one in the area sympathises with Saddam. He is regarded as a present or potential threat by all concerned. And this threat will be especially potent if he somehow manages to survive the sanctions regime. On the other hand, if a US assault manages to remove the Baathist regime and install a democratic (or even quasi-democratic) system in its place, then the implications for all of Iraq's neighbours can be drastic - in particular for the Gulf states that have hitherto been hesitant to introduce real political liberalisation.

The situation facing Iran is more clear-cut. Tehran fears that, if an attack on Iraq succeeds in its objectives, the US would use the Turkish and Pakistani operations rooms against Iran. There have already been media reports indicating that the regimes in Pakistan and to a lesser extent Afghanistan, now in the US camp, would have little choice but to back US policies against Iran. For example, Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) has reportedly been pressured to close its Afghan desk and scale down its Kashmir desk, and instead to open new Iran and Iraq desks to facilitate operations against Tehran and Baghdad on behalf of the US, just as it did against the Soviet Union in the 1980s.

From the US perspective, an assault on Iraq is not going to dent its credibility in the Middle East much more than it already has been over the years. Perceptions of Washington among the public in most Middle Eastern countries is mainly negative. A poll to discover Muslim attitudes towards the US and the Sept. 11 hijackings was conducted by Gallup during December 2001 and January 2002. A total of 9,924 Muslim residents in nine countries: Indonesia, Iran, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Morocco, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Turkey were interviewed. The poll had about 120 questions, but not all were asked in every country because of censorship by the authorities. Respondents overwhelmingly described the US as "ruthless, aggressive, conceited, arrogant, easily provoked, (and) biased".

Of the respondents, 61% said they did not believe Arab groups were behind the Sept.11 attacks, and a further 67% thought the US campaign in Afghanistan following the attacks was unjustified; only 9% thought Operation Enduring Freedom was justified. The poll confirms a widespread unfavourable opinion of the US in the Muslim world - 53% - with less than half of that - 22% - holding a positive opinion. Only 11% expressed a favourable opinion of the President Bush, with 58% saying they dislike him. Views in Pakistan - a key US ally in the war on terrorism - Iran and Saudi Arabia were the most negative.

Residents of Lebanon had the highest favorable opinion of the US, at 41%, followed by NATO ally Turkey with 40%. The lowest numbers came from Pakistan, with only 5% of the people having a favourable opinion of the US. The implications of this are ominous for the Musharraf regime, and for the American dependence on Islamabad in targeting Iraq and perhaps eventually Iran. Only 28% of Kuwaitis, 27% of Indonesians, 22% of Jordanians, 22% of Moroccans, 16% of Saudi and 14% of Iranians surveyed had a favorable view of the US.