US May Hit Iraqi Baathists In Syria.

The Jerusalem Post on Dec. 23 quoted a "senior" Bush official as saying the US was contemplating incursions into Syrian territory in an attempt to kill or capture "Iraqi Baathists who, it believes, are directing at least part of the attacks against US targets in Iraq". The official said fresh sanctions were likely to be implemented, but added the US needed to be more "aggressive" after the deadly Dec. 21 attack on the US base near Mosul.

The paper quoted the official as saying: "I think the sanctions are one thing. But I think the other thing [the Syrians] have got to start worrying about is whether we would take cross-border military action in hot pursuit or something like that. In other words, nothing like full-scale military hostilities. But when you're being attacked from safe havens across the border - we've been through this a lot of times before - we're just not going to sit there. You get a tragedy [like the attack in Mosul] and it reminds people that it is still a very serious problem. If I were Syria, I'd be worried". The Jerusalem Post added: "Another US official said that sentiment reflects a 'growing level of frustration' in Washington at Syria's reluctance to detain Ba'athists and others who are organizing attacks from Syrian territory. The official cautioned, however, that whether to take cross-border military action is still a matter of discussion within the administration and that a military incursion is still 'premature'. The senior official said US anger increased substantially after a prolonged incursion into Falluja last month, which revealed 'how much of the insurgency is now being directed through Syria'".

The US has not publicly detailed the evidence it has regarding the extent to which attacks are being organised from within Syria. But a report in The Times of London on Dec. 23 suggested not only that Syria was becoming a base for Iraqis to operate, but that Syrian officials were themselves involved. The paper said Iraq confronted Syria with proof that included photographs of senior Syrian officials taken from Iraqi fighters captured during the Falluja offensive (see fap6aSyriaOpposDec27-04).

A Long Way For The US: The insurgency in Iraq is stark evidence that US efforts to bring into being a new Iraqi government representing all major population groups and capable of defending itself and its citizens still has a very long way to go. Some 21 months after the American invasion, US military forces remain essentially alone in battling a steadily-growing insurgency, with no clear prospect of decisive success any time in the foreseeable future.

Washington has no significant international military partners besides Britain, and no Iraqi military support it can count on. The election that once looked as if it might produce a government with nationwide legitimacy increasingly threatens to intensify divisions between the groups that are expected to participate - the Shiites and Kurds - and an estranged and embattled Sunni minority, which is standing aloof. On top of these problems are the aspirations of more than 4.5m Kurds and over 2m Turkomans in northern Iraq, both claiming rights to Kirkuk.

There may still be time for Washington to try to salvage the election, but that would require paying much more serious attention to legitimate Sunni grievances and showing an openness to postponing the election for several months, if that had a reasonable chance of attracting broader Sunni participation. So far, Bush has strongly resisted such an approach. As weeks go by without discernible progress, hopes for a decent outcome get progressively harder to sustain. Right now, the only progress seems to lie in the willingness of a re-elected Bush to face some hard truths: Iraqi security forces - always presented as the key to US pull-out.