US & Arab Oil Producers Warned Bin Laden Will Hit.

The US and its Arab allies must expect an increase in attacks on their oil infrastructure in the next phase of the war by al-Qaeda targeting the US economy, the former CIA official who was responsible for hunting down Osama bin Laden warned on May 15. Writing for the Jamestown Foundation, a Washington security think-tank, Michael Scheuer said bin Laden's intention to bankrupt the US economy by driving up world oil prices was very likely to lead to Qaeda attacks inside the US, its allies or unrelated groups. He said Houston's refineries, oil import facilities and ship canal and pipeline systems, and the trans-Alaska pipeline were potential targets.

Al-Qaeda's failed attack on Saudi Arabia's Abqaiq facility on Feb. 24, which led to a $2/b jump in the WTI price, should be seen as the beginning of a new and more systematic phase of al-Qaeda targeting the kingdom's oil infrastructure. Two days after the attack, an al-Qaeda-affiliated religious leader issued a fatwa (religious decree) for attacking oil processing installations. The leader, using the internet, claimed that attacks on prominent Muslim oil officials were justified.

Al-Qaeda's media apparatus is being used "to stir the troubled pot of oil-related international worries", Scheuer writes, noting encouragement for Nigerian insurgents in the Niger Delta and "mujahideen" in the Caspian Sea region. Tracing al-Qaeda's evolving strategy, Scheuer, who left the CIA in 2004, notes that bin Laden has never threatened to cut oil supplies to the US. Instead he is driven by the belief that Muslim oil is bought too cheaply.

In December 2004, bin Laden wrote that a minimum of $100/b was a "fair price". In his September 1996 "Declaration of War against Americans", bin Laden argued that oil in the Islamic world was a treasure to be preserved for future generations of Muslims and thus should not be wasted through attacks. As a result, Scheuer says al-Qaeda's plans rule out attacks on oil wells but focus on the infrastructure needed for refining and transporting oil, as well as industry personnel.